New FBI Rules
Friday, October 3 - According to the New York Times, "The Justice Department finalized on Friday an overhaul of rules that will give the Federal Bureau of Investigation freer rein to begin investigations into the possibility of terrorism, even without evidence of wrongdoing."
Broad Range of Critical Professions in a Pandemic
Friday, October 3 - Not only are doctors, nurses, and firefighters essential during a severe pandemic influenza outbreak. So, too, are truck drivers, communications personnel, and utility workers," according to a new study.
Advancing Resilience
Thursday, October 2 - Yesterday a Washington D.C. conference of policymakers advanced key principles and processes for national resilience, according to Government Executive. The Reform Institute released a report (pdf) on the issue. Homeland Security Watch gives further context.
California Wildfire Grows
Wednesday, October 1 - A wildfire in southern Monterey County doubled in size Monday. An early start of the fire season nearly depleted State and federal firefighting budgets. "An additional $910 million in emergency federal funding for fighting wildfires has been approved by Congress and sent to the President," according to KCAL.
Mall Plot Earns 30 year Sentence
Wednesday, October 1 - The lone conspirator in a possible terrorist attack on a Rockford, Illinois shopping mall was sentenced yesterday.
"Threat to Pakistan's very existence"
Tuesday, September 30 - Intense fighting is reported in Northwest Pakistan between government forces and militants associated with the Taliban and al Qaeda. According to the Financial Times, "Pakistani troops have destroyed a Taliban stronghold on the Afghan border and unearthed a network of underground bunkers used for planning and training hardcore militants." This is part of month-long government offensive which has displaced at least 300,000 Pakistanis. Many expect a terrorist response with new attacks on Pakistani cities. Yesterday General David Petraeus the new US commander for operations in the Middle East and South Asia said, "This is a threat to Pakistan's very existence and it is one with which they must deal."
Recognizing Risky Relationships
Smoke from the Stevenson Ranch wildfire obscures the sun while water and power worker checks the power lines after a Santa Ana wind driven wildfire raced through the area in Valencia, Calif., north of Los Angeles, Monday, October 22, 2007. (Photograph by Kevork Djansezian, Associated Press)
Risk calculation often considers three broad types of threat: natural, accidental, and intentional. Understanding how these different threat-types interact with vulnerability is one way to focus risk management decisions. Should a fourth type - relational - be added to our mental toolbox?
When the levees failed following Katrina was it an accident? If California wildfires are ignited by badly maintained utility lines is that an accident? Osama bin-Laden said he did not expect the World Trade Center towers to collapse. Does absence of specific intention or expectation have a meaningful impact on how we practice risk management?
There can be relationships - unexpected and, perhaps, unforeseeable - between natural and/or accidental threats and human choice (quite separate from human intention).
In a report (pdf) released in early September the California Public Utilities Commission found that three San Diego County wildfires were caused by badly maintained overhead lines.
According to this report, "On October 22, 2007, a Cox Communications (Cox) lashing wire made contact with a San Diego Gas and Electric Company (SDG&E) 12 kV overhead conductor between SDG&E poles P196387 and P196394 in San Pasqual Valley. The July 9, 2008 California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s (CalFire) report on the fires (CalFire Report) states that the Guejito Fire started when these energized power lines and this Cox lashing wire came in contact with each other. This fire has been variously referred to as: the Pasqual Fire, the San Pasqual Fire, and the Guejito Fire. This fire will hereinafter be referred to as the Guejito Fire. The Consumer Protection and Safety Division (CPSD) of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) investigated this incident. Based upon all the evidence made available to it, it is CPSD’s opinion that Cox was in violation of CPUC General Order (GO) 95, Rules 31.1 and 31.2 at the time of the incident. GO 95, Rule 31.1 requires a utility’s facilities to be designed, constructed, and maintained, in order to enable safe, proper and adequate service, and Rule 31.2 requires a utility to inspect facilities frequently and thoroughly in order to ensure that they are in good condition."
The two regulated companies have vigorously disagreed with the report's findings. Cox Communications specifically argues, "“The evidence indicates that our line was fully intact prior to the extreme Santa Ana winds, which caused S.D.G. & E.’s lines and our lines to come into contact." Which raises a question as to the foreseeability of the Santa Ana winds.
Legal principles distinguish between outcomes that are intentional, unintentional, and the result of negligence. Under the law an accident is an unintentional mishap, the result of chance (accident is derived from the Latin for chance) and beyond foreseeing. Negligence is usually established by making a case that an unintended injury was reasonably foreseeable.
In Anglo-American law the issue is often determined by defining the scope for a "duty of care." Those accused in the Southern California wildfires argue that but for fierce winds, there would have been no contact of their lines and they cannot be held responsible for unforeseeably fierce winds. But it might be asked, given seasonal recurrence of the Santa Ana winds was such an outcome outside reasonable anticipation? Even if the probability of such winds or such harm was low, was it incumbent on some party to give serious consideration to such possibilities.
In discussing his decision in United States v Carroll Towing Company (1947) Judge Learned Hand offered the following rule for establishing duty of care:
Since there are occasions when every vessel will break from her moorings, and since, if she does, she becomes a menace to those about her; the owner’s duty, as in other similar situations, to provide against resulting injuries is a function of three variables: (1) The probability that she will break away; (2) the gravity of the resulting injury, if she does; (3) the burden of adequate precautions. Possibly it serves to bring this notion into relief to state it in algebraic terms: if the probability be called P; the injury, L; and the burden, B; liability depends upon whether B is less than L multiplied by P: i.e., whether B <>
The risk manager - especially if he or she is engaged in protecting the public-at-large - must be less concerned with the burden and more concerned with the potential injury. It is in the self-interest of many to underestimate both injury and probability.
The risk manager - as public servant - must be willing and able to consider catastrophic potential. Such catastrophic potential will often have lesser probabilities. But a lesser probability cannot be simply dismissed. The risk manager must inquire into the possible relationship between human choice and chance events. Has human choice - without intention - substantially increased potental injury or probability.
In other words is the chance of catastrophic injury - even if "reasonably" improbable - sufficient to undertake a precautionary burden?
The 9/11 Commission argued that a major contribution to the attackers' success was a "failure of imagination" by those charged to consider the injury and probability of the foreseen attack. The same critique can often be applied to probability and injury resulting from natural and accidental threats.
(Recent developments in financial risk management emphasize the importance of recognizing often obscured relational threats. See the New York Times.)
September 22 - 27, 2008
Pirates Seize Weapons Ship
Saturday, September 27 - Somali Pirates have taken a Ukranian cargo ship bound for Kenya with a large cache of military supplies. On Sunday morning the BBC reported the destoyer USS Howard steaming out of Djibouti has made visual contact with the cargo ship. A Russian naval vessel is also reported on its way.
Damascus Bombing
Saturday, September 27 - A car bomb killed 17 and injured many more in a suburb of the Syrian capital of Damascus.
Gulf Coast Recovering
Friday, September 26 - Nearly two weeks after Ike, the Texas and Louisiana coasts are beginning to come to grips with their new reality. Over a half million Houston area residents remain without electric power. The utility expects to have main powerlines restored by this Sunday but is not promising when the remaining 20 percent plus of its customers will be able to turn on their lights. At least 75 percent of Galveston homes are uninhabitable. Eleven of 15 oil refineries have returned to operation, but refinery utilization rates are at the lowest level in over 40 years. The US Department of Energy suggests the nation is still "a few weeks" away from restoring usual gasoline production capacity. According to Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu, "Texas estimates its costs from Ike will total $27 billion to $35 billion. Louisiana's costs are expected to be $30 billion to $40 billion." Wednesday the US Congress passed an omnibus funding measure that includes some recovery support.
Kyle Targets New England and Maritimes
Friday, September 26 - Tropical Storm Kyle is expected to come ashore this weekend. According to the National Hurricane Center:
THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE REACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF GULFSTREAM...THE FASTFORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
Germans Arrest Two Suspected Terrorists
Friday, September 26 - Two Somali nationals were arrested at Frankfurt airport. According to some reports both had recently completed training in the Pakistani border region. Some reports indicate the suspects were on the first-leg of a return trip to Pakistan.
Monsoon Flooding Continues
Photo by Amit Dave, Reuters
Friday, September 26 - Heavy rain continues to fall across Northern India as the death-toll from flooding exceeds 2400 with tens of thousands displaced.
Varied Signals, Uncertain Outcomes
Thursday, September 25 - The Pakistani Army claims success in a major offensive, killing over 1000 insurgents, including five top al Qaeda and Taliban leaders. Shots were exchanged between US and Pakistani forces along the border region with Afghanistan. In New York the President of Pakistan has condemned US operations into Pakistan, but has also excused the most recent report of a border incursion. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff is pushing for a sustained commitment of US support for Pakistan, telling Reuters, "Clearly, Americans are not very popular in Pakistan. Many Pakistanis see it as America's war, not their war. And I understand all that ... I'm not trying to fan those flames." British Airways has discontinued flights into Pakistan and the Islamabad airport has been essentially shut-down by threats of an attack. More suicide attacks were reported in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and a bombing derailed a train killing a woman and three children. The United Nations is considering removal of non-essential staff from Pakistan. In a joint Wall Street Journal piece the Afghan and Pakistani UN ambassadors assure readers, "President Hamid Karzai and the new democratically elected president of Pakistan, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, are firmly committed to fighting terrorism in a united front, as common allies of the United States and victims of terrorism."
Bush-Zardari Meeting
Wednesday, September 24 - Very little substance has been reported emerging from yesterday's morning meeting at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel between Presidents Bush and Zardari. A subsequent meeting between Pakistan's President and President Karzai of Afghanistan seems to have had more concrete outcomes. Raising particular hopes was the announcement that the Turkish President would host a trilateral meeting involving both Afghanistan and Pakistan focused on greater military cooperation against terrorists operating along their shared border.
Basque Bombings and Arrests
Wednesday, September 24 - The third ETA bombing in 24 hours claimed its first victim on Monday. Today French police made at least 12 related arrests.
Galveston Allowing Residents to Return
Tuesday, September 23 - On Wednesday - eleven days after Hurricane Ike hit the city - Galveston officials will allow residents to return to the barrier island, according to the Houston Chronicle.
Low Pressure Likely to Intensify
Tuesday, September 23 - A broad area of low pressure currently centered between South America and Hispaniola is predicted to strengthen as it moves slowly North or Northwest according to the National Hurricane Center.
Schools Threatened
Tuesday, September 23 - A Finnish student killed ten others and himself in a shooting spree at a vocational school in Kauhajoki. Yesterday Polk Community College in Winter Haven, Florida locked down its campuses in response to a threat to shoot a person at the college. The suspect was arrested.
New York on High-Security
Monday, September 22 - Most of the East Side of Mid-town Manhattan will be shut down for the opening of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. According to WNBC, "First Avenue and numerous streets near the U.N will be closed. The NYPD said there will also be closures around the Waldorf Astoria and other hotels where leaders are staying... Officials have said while there is some Internet chatter warning of threats to New York, none is considered credible or specific at this time."
Marriott Bomb's Composition Claimed
Monday, September 22 - A senior official with Pakistan's Home Ministry told James Rupert that the truck bomb involved at least 1300 pounds of "high-grade TNT, trinitrotoluene, or RDX, cyclotrimethylene-trinitramine, a military explosive... as well as mortar bombs, artillery shells and an incendiary aluminum powder. He described the bomb as the biggest ever used in a terrorist attack in Pakistan."
Pakistani Leaders Assert They were Target
Monday, September 22 - Some Pakistani officials claim the government leaders were the target of the Saturday night bombing of the Marriott Hotel. AFP reports, "Pakistan's top leaders were due to have dinner at Islamabad's Marriott hotel on the night it was bombed but cheated death after switching venue at the last minute, a senior official said Monday. The hotel however denied the claim, made by interior ministry chief Rehman Malik, that President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and military top brass had narrowly escaped Saturday's devastating attack."
Saturday, September 27 - Somali Pirates have taken a Ukranian cargo ship bound for Kenya with a large cache of military supplies. On Sunday morning the BBC reported the destoyer USS Howard steaming out of Djibouti has made visual contact with the cargo ship. A Russian naval vessel is also reported on its way.
Damascus Bombing
Saturday, September 27 - A car bomb killed 17 and injured many more in a suburb of the Syrian capital of Damascus.
Gulf Coast Recovering
Friday, September 26 - Nearly two weeks after Ike, the Texas and Louisiana coasts are beginning to come to grips with their new reality. Over a half million Houston area residents remain without electric power. The utility expects to have main powerlines restored by this Sunday but is not promising when the remaining 20 percent plus of its customers will be able to turn on their lights. At least 75 percent of Galveston homes are uninhabitable. Eleven of 15 oil refineries have returned to operation, but refinery utilization rates are at the lowest level in over 40 years. The US Department of Energy suggests the nation is still "a few weeks" away from restoring usual gasoline production capacity. According to Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu, "Texas estimates its costs from Ike will total $27 billion to $35 billion. Louisiana's costs are expected to be $30 billion to $40 billion." Wednesday the US Congress passed an omnibus funding measure that includes some recovery support.
Kyle Targets New England and Maritimes
Friday, September 26 - Tropical Storm Kyle is expected to come ashore this weekend. According to the National Hurricane Center:
THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE REACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF GULFSTREAM...THE FASTFORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
Germans Arrest Two Suspected Terrorists
Friday, September 26 - Two Somali nationals were arrested at Frankfurt airport. According to some reports both had recently completed training in the Pakistani border region. Some reports indicate the suspects were on the first-leg of a return trip to Pakistan.
Monsoon Flooding Continues
Photo by Amit Dave, Reuters
Friday, September 26 - Heavy rain continues to fall across Northern India as the death-toll from flooding exceeds 2400 with tens of thousands displaced.
Varied Signals, Uncertain Outcomes
Thursday, September 25 - The Pakistani Army claims success in a major offensive, killing over 1000 insurgents, including five top al Qaeda and Taliban leaders. Shots were exchanged between US and Pakistani forces along the border region with Afghanistan. In New York the President of Pakistan has condemned US operations into Pakistan, but has also excused the most recent report of a border incursion. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff is pushing for a sustained commitment of US support for Pakistan, telling Reuters, "Clearly, Americans are not very popular in Pakistan. Many Pakistanis see it as America's war, not their war. And I understand all that ... I'm not trying to fan those flames." British Airways has discontinued flights into Pakistan and the Islamabad airport has been essentially shut-down by threats of an attack. More suicide attacks were reported in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and a bombing derailed a train killing a woman and three children. The United Nations is considering removal of non-essential staff from Pakistan. In a joint Wall Street Journal piece the Afghan and Pakistani UN ambassadors assure readers, "President Hamid Karzai and the new democratically elected president of Pakistan, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, are firmly committed to fighting terrorism in a united front, as common allies of the United States and victims of terrorism."
Bush-Zardari Meeting
Wednesday, September 24 - Very little substance has been reported emerging from yesterday's morning meeting at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel between Presidents Bush and Zardari. A subsequent meeting between Pakistan's President and President Karzai of Afghanistan seems to have had more concrete outcomes. Raising particular hopes was the announcement that the Turkish President would host a trilateral meeting involving both Afghanistan and Pakistan focused on greater military cooperation against terrorists operating along their shared border.
Basque Bombings and Arrests
Wednesday, September 24 - The third ETA bombing in 24 hours claimed its first victim on Monday. Today French police made at least 12 related arrests.
Galveston Allowing Residents to Return
Tuesday, September 23 - On Wednesday - eleven days after Hurricane Ike hit the city - Galveston officials will allow residents to return to the barrier island, according to the Houston Chronicle.
Low Pressure Likely to Intensify
Tuesday, September 23 - A broad area of low pressure currently centered between South America and Hispaniola is predicted to strengthen as it moves slowly North or Northwest according to the National Hurricane Center.
Schools Threatened
Tuesday, September 23 - A Finnish student killed ten others and himself in a shooting spree at a vocational school in Kauhajoki. Yesterday Polk Community College in Winter Haven, Florida locked down its campuses in response to a threat to shoot a person at the college. The suspect was arrested.
New York on High-Security
Monday, September 22 - Most of the East Side of Mid-town Manhattan will be shut down for the opening of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. According to WNBC, "First Avenue and numerous streets near the U.N will be closed. The NYPD said there will also be closures around the Waldorf Astoria and other hotels where leaders are staying... Officials have said while there is some Internet chatter warning of threats to New York, none is considered credible or specific at this time."
Marriott Bomb's Composition Claimed
Monday, September 22 - A senior official with Pakistan's Home Ministry told James Rupert that the truck bomb involved at least 1300 pounds of "high-grade TNT, trinitrotoluene, or RDX, cyclotrimethylene-trinitramine, a military explosive... as well as mortar bombs, artillery shells and an incendiary aluminum powder. He described the bomb as the biggest ever used in a terrorist attack in Pakistan." Pakistani Leaders Assert They were Target
Monday, September 22 - Some Pakistani officials claim the government leaders were the target of the Saturday night bombing of the Marriott Hotel. AFP reports, "Pakistan's top leaders were due to have dinner at Islamabad's Marriott hotel on the night it was bombed but cheated death after switching venue at the last minute, a senior official said Monday. The hotel however denied the claim, made by interior ministry chief Rehman Malik, that President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and military top brass had narrowly escaped Saturday's devastating attack."
Tough Context for US Pakistan Meeting
Islamabad Marriott, September 20, Photograph by BK Bangash/Associated Press
The new President of Pakistan and the outgoing President of the United States will meet on Tuesday in New York. Preparations for the meeting included the visit last week to Islamabad by Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen.
The Presidents' meeting has also been preceded by increasing US attacks on terrorist targets inside Pakistan. On September 17 - during Admiral Mullen's visit - missiles from a US drone hit a suspected terrorist hideout. This came on the heels of the first - reported - ground attack by US forces inside Pakistan on September 3. According to media reports, President Bush has authorized US operations inside Pakistan without Pakistani pre-approval. Whether or not the recent US attacks received Pakistani approval, they have created a political furor. (Overview from Time Magazine.)
Since their 2001 ouster in Afghanistan both the Taliban and al Qaeda have established safe havens inside Pakistan, especially in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). These safe havens are used to supply and train for attacks inside Afghanistan and elsewhere. In the last two weeks German police have made a series of arrests involving terrorist suspects who received training in Pakistan in 2006 and 2007.In a videotape released on September 8 the Taliban and al Qaeda promised, "more major, large-scale attacks like the Kandahar prison operation, the Nuristan raid, the Sarobi ambush and Khost airport operation in which approximately 50 Americans and 100 apostates were killed and four helicopters were hit and destroyed." Over the last three months, insurgents have inflicted the highest casualty tolls on western forces since the Afghan war began nearly seven years ago. (See related story.)
US Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, has defended cross-border operations into Pakistan as a military necessity. The United States has pressed Pakistan for more aggressive action against the terrorist hideouts along the mountainous Afghan-Pakistan border. Saturday the Pakistan military claimed progress in a month-long offensive in the Bajaur area of the FATA.
But many are skeptical. On Saturday Nasim Zehra wrote in the Khaleej Times (Dubai, UAE), "The Taliban and the al Qaeda are now relatively more effective because they have strong intelligence, the locals have virtually minimal protection by the State, the Pakistan Army has not been successful in blocking the expansion and the power of these groups... What is now being achieved through the Pakistan Army operations in Bajaur? Reportedly minimal. Will the Pakistan Army win against the militants? It appears that the army operations have not succeeded to substantively weaken the Taliban and the al Qaeda."
Saturday morning a suicide bomber struck a Pakistani army convoy in North Waziristan killing at least ten soldiers. According to some reports there have been at least 900 Pakistani army casualties in counterterrorism operations since 2006.
On Saturday afternoon Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari gave a wide-ranging speech to Parliament insisting, "We will not tolerate the violation of our sovereignty and territorial integrity by any power in the name of combating terrorism."
But President Zardari gave much more attention to the internal challenge of terrorism. "We must root out terrorism and extremism wherever and whenever they may rear their ugly heads. Reforming the tribal areas and bringing them into the mainstream of national life can no longer be delayed. They must be treated at par with the rest of their Pakistani brethren... Pakistan is at a critical security juncture today. In order to meet the challenge posed by the extremist and terrorist elements in the Tribal Areas and the adjoining regions, the Government has devised a comprehensive three-pronged strategy. First, to make peace with those who are willing to keep the peace and renounce violence; Second, to invest in the development and social uplift of the local people and Third, to use force only as a last resort against those who refuse to surrender their arms, take the law into their hands, challenge the writ of the Government and attack security forces."
Will this strategy be enough? For President Bush? For reducing terrorist operations in Afghanistan? For curtailing terrorist training targeted at Europe, the US, and elsewhere? For Zardari's survival? For Pakistan's survival?
Only a few hours after President Zardari's speech the Pakistani capital was shaken by the explosion of a massive vehicle bomb at the Marriott Hotel. (Published 1300 US Eastern, Saturday, September 20)
Follow-on coverage: Over 50 Killed, Pakistan's 9/11, Al Qaeda Suspected, Warning to US-PAK Coop, Zardari vows to Fight, Pakistani President Departs for New York.
September 15-20, 2008
India to Strengthen Counterterrorism Efforts
Friday, September 19 - In the aftermath of recent bombings the New Delhi government will "put in place a dedicated mechanism for research and analysis in areas of technology and counterterrorism," Madhukar Gupta, India's top-most home ministry official told Reuters. The government proposals respond to a clear problem and increasing criticism, but many are skeptical regarding the effectiveness of any such effort.
Quiet on the Western and Eastern Fronts
Friday, September 19 - After a ferocious start to the wildfire and hurricane seasons, mid-September has been largely quiet. The Doubleday fire in Southern Oregon is still not contained. But elsewhere wildfire threats are modest. A low-intensity tropical wave is currently over the Lesser Antilles, but is unlikely to strengthen. No organized systems are presenting over the Eastern Atlantic.
Another Milk Contamination Death
Thursday, September 18 - A fourth baby has died - and thousands have been sickened - as a result of tainted milk in China. "Powdered baby milk from the mainland's two biggest dairy companies, along with 20 others, were found to have been deliberately contaminated with the industrial chemical melamine, which is used in plastics and glue production. Apart from the three fatalities, (now four) 6,244 babies have fallen ill, including 158 in hospital with acute kidney problems, the mainland's health minister, Chen Zhu, said." according to the Hong Kong Standard.
US Embassy in Yemen Attacked
Wednesday, September 17 - According to several media sources the US embassy in the capital "was hit by a car bombing and rocket fire on Wednesday sparking a series of explosions around the heavily fortified compound." AFP, al bawaba, BBC
Hurricane Recovery Struggles
Wednesday, September 17 - Water, food, electricity and other essentials are in short supply for many victims of Hurricane Ike. According to CNN, "FEMA has established at least 60 distribution sites across the region to give away water, ice and food. There are long waiting line at those stations crowded with thousands of people." Over 1.4 million Texans remain without electricity. According to the Houston Chronicle roughly 50-75 percent may be back online next Tuesday. The double punch of Gustav and Ike caused record setting power outages in Louisiana according to the Times-Picayune. Over 300,000 customers in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky also remain in the dark for the fifth day. According to the Cincinatti Enquirer the local utility expects to have about 85 percent of these customers back online by tonight.
Mexican Celebrations Bombed
Wednesday, September 17 - According to the Chicago Tribune, "fragmentation grenades, ripped through crowds in Morelia, the capital of the western state of Michoacan, late Monday."
Midwest Flooding
Tuesday, September 16 - The remnants of Hurricane Ike joining with an existing low caused significant flooding and other problems across the the Great Lake States. A power blackout has entered its third day in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky.
Pakistan-US Confrontation?
Tuesday, September 16 - Media reports in Pakistan claim that "Two United States military helicopters turned back to Afghanistan from the border early on Monday after shots were fired from the ground, but there were conflicting accounts of the incident.Security officials and tribal elders said the threat of an incursion led Pakistani troops and tribesmen to fire." While the story is disputed it is getting extensive play in Middle East media and coincides with reports that "Corps commanders of Pakistan's 600,000-strong army issued orders to retaliate against "invading" US forces that enter the country to attack militant targets."
Friday, September 19 - In the aftermath of recent bombings the New Delhi government will "put in place a dedicated mechanism for research and analysis in areas of technology and counterterrorism," Madhukar Gupta, India's top-most home ministry official told Reuters. The government proposals respond to a clear problem and increasing criticism, but many are skeptical regarding the effectiveness of any such effort.
Quiet on the Western and Eastern Fronts
Friday, September 19 - After a ferocious start to the wildfire and hurricane seasons, mid-September has been largely quiet. The Doubleday fire in Southern Oregon is still not contained. But elsewhere wildfire threats are modest. A low-intensity tropical wave is currently over the Lesser Antilles, but is unlikely to strengthen. No organized systems are presenting over the Eastern Atlantic.
Another Milk Contamination Death
Thursday, September 18 - A fourth baby has died - and thousands have been sickened - as a result of tainted milk in China. "Powdered baby milk from the mainland's two biggest dairy companies, along with 20 others, were found to have been deliberately contaminated with the industrial chemical melamine, which is used in plastics and glue production. Apart from the three fatalities, (now four) 6,244 babies have fallen ill, including 158 in hospital with acute kidney problems, the mainland's health minister, Chen Zhu, said." according to the Hong Kong Standard.
US Embassy in Yemen Attacked
Wednesday, September 17 - According to several media sources the US embassy in the capital "was hit by a car bombing and rocket fire on Wednesday sparking a series of explosions around the heavily fortified compound." AFP, al bawaba, BBC
Hurricane Recovery Struggles
Wednesday, September 17 - Water, food, electricity and other essentials are in short supply for many victims of Hurricane Ike. According to CNN, "FEMA has established at least 60 distribution sites across the region to give away water, ice and food. There are long waiting line at those stations crowded with thousands of people." Over 1.4 million Texans remain without electricity. According to the Houston Chronicle roughly 50-75 percent may be back online next Tuesday. The double punch of Gustav and Ike caused record setting power outages in Louisiana according to the Times-Picayune. Over 300,000 customers in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky also remain in the dark for the fifth day. According to the Cincinatti Enquirer the local utility expects to have about 85 percent of these customers back online by tonight.
Mexican Celebrations Bombed
Wednesday, September 17 - According to the Chicago Tribune, "fragmentation grenades, ripped through crowds in Morelia, the capital of the western state of Michoacan, late Monday."
Midwest Flooding
Tuesday, September 16 - The remnants of Hurricane Ike joining with an existing low caused significant flooding and other problems across the the Great Lake States. A power blackout has entered its third day in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky.
Pakistan-US Confrontation?
Tuesday, September 16 - Media reports in Pakistan claim that "Two United States military helicopters turned back to Afghanistan from the border early on Monday after shots were fired from the ground, but there were conflicting accounts of the incident.Security officials and tribal elders said the threat of an incursion led Pakistani troops and tribesmen to fire." While the story is disputed it is getting extensive play in Middle East media and coincides with reports that "Corps commanders of Pakistan's 600,000-strong army issued orders to retaliate against "invading" US forces that enter the country to attack militant targets."
Learning Recovery Lessons
Ike's aftermath, Seawall Boulevard, Galveston. Photograph by Johnny Hanson (Houston Chronicle and AP)
As the Texas Gulf Coast moves from response to recovery, the experience of others confirms that results depend a great deal on political will. New York, New Orleans, and Haiti are each in the midst of recovery efforts. Despite the very different locales, the lessons-learned are similar.
New York mayor Michael Bloomberg wrote in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, , "Progress on the redevelopment of the World Trade Center has been frustratingly slow, owing in large part to a multilayered governance structure that has undermined accountability from the get-go." Early responses suggest the mayor's proposal to reduce layers is unlikely to be quickly adopted.
In a mostly positive June report on Post-Katrina rebuilding US News and World Report nonetheless noted that the New Orleans "Office of Recovery and Development Administration has largely blamed the slow start on funding delays, mostly from the federal government, while state and federal authorities blame local disorganization."
The Financial Services Roundtable (pdf) recovery report gives particular emphasis to the role of intergovernmental coordination. "One of the central lessons learned from Katrina is that multiple decisions prior to a mega-catastrophe and definitely in the aftermath (as well as some even more“routine” disasters) are required by all levels of government – local, state, and federal – since many decisions require the cooperation of all, as well as a means to resolve disputes where they arise. It is vital that these decisions be made expeditiously and that disputes be resolved quickly so that individuals waiting to return and businesses ready to reopen have sufficient certainty that they can make plans. The more rapidly all of this happens, the more quickly the economic and social recovery from any disaster will occur."
Over the last three weeks more than 500 have died in Haiti of storm-related disasters. On Monday, Time Magazine reported, "Haiti's political instability has imperiled efforts at disaster preparation... Two months ago the Family Early Warning Systems Network (composed of USAID, the European Union, FAO and the World Food Program) predicted that nearly half of Haiti's population — or some 4 million people — could face a food crisis by December. And that was before the deluge that flooded the country's breadbasket." Some reports indicate the recent storms have left one million Haitians homeless.
In a Los Angeles Times Sunday op-ed Amy Wilentz comments, "the governments of Haiti, both the dictatorships and the democracies, have done almost nothing to stop deforestation or to protect Haitians from the next big storm. There is no enforced national policy concerning cutting down trees... There is no national or municipal evacuation plan or shelter system."
Jed Horne, New Orleans resident and author of Breach of Faith: Hurricane Katrina and the Near Death of a Great American City, helpfully reminds us that politics is not just for politicians. "At its most worthwhile and interesting New Orleans has become a laboratory for its own reinvention and perhaps the reinvention of other cities as well. We have made real strides in reshaping government, school system included. We have the opportunity, if we don't blow it, to get health care and public housing right. Our very travail has made New Orleans a magnet for people form all over the country with a sense of adventure and a will to make a difference." (For Horne's complete essay see the September Oxford American.)
While politics is often an easy target for cynics, these three recovery efforts underline what Vaclav Havel once said, "Genuine politics… is simply a matter of serving those around us: serving the community and serving those who will come after us. Its deepest roots are moral because it is a responsibility expressed through action, to and for the whole."
September 8 -13, 2008
Delhi Markets Bombed
Saturday, September 13 - A series of five bomb blasts hit Delhi today. In an Email to Indian police responsibility was claimed by a group calling itself the Indian Mujahideen.
Hurricane Hammers Houston
Saturday, September 13 - Ike made landfall early this morning. The Houston Chronicle is maintaining a blow-by-blow blog at http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/
Different Strategies to Improve Intelligence
Saturday, September 13 - On Friday the FBI moved ahead with new guidance for counter-terror investigations. According to the Wall Street Journal, "The guidelines allow FBI agents to open "threat assessments," which are lower-level investigations that are based only on having a "purpose," and not necessarily any factual reason to do so. In these investigations, agents would be able to conduct "pretext interviews," without identifying themselves as FBI agents. The rules also loosen restrictions on agents being able to use physical surveillance, solicit new informants or assign informants to seek information without high-level approval.
Saturday, September 13 - A series of five bomb blasts hit Delhi today. In an Email to Indian police responsibility was claimed by a group calling itself the Indian Mujahideen.
Hurricane Hammers Houston
Saturday, September 13 - Ike made landfall early this morning. The Houston Chronicle is maintaining a blow-by-blow blog at http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/
Different Strategies to Improve Intelligence
Saturday, September 13 - On Friday the FBI moved ahead with new guidance for counter-terror investigations. According to the Wall Street Journal, "The guidelines allow FBI agents to open "threat assessments," which are lower-level investigations that are based only on having a "purpose," and not necessarily any factual reason to do so. In these investigations, agents would be able to conduct "pretext interviews," without identifying themselves as FBI agents. The rules also loosen restrictions on agents being able to use physical surveillance, solicit new informants or assign informants to seek information without high-level approval.
Also on Friday the House Homeland Security Committee released a Staff Report that concluded current federal efforts to share intelligence with State and local partners, "has primarily been focused on providing security clearances to an ever-increasing number of law enforcement personnel and private sector representatives to assure access to classified homeland security information. This approach, all too often, prevents information from being shared with the cops on the beat – the people best-positioned to detect suspicious activities or uncover a terrorist cell.
Ike Strengthens before Strike
Friday, September 12 - Hurricane Ike is expected to make landfall by tomorrow morning. According to the National Hurricane Center:
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE... WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE A LONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
Terrorism Training Banned
Friday, September 12 - YouTube has banned postings that advocate terrorism or incite violence. The new guidelines state, "While it might not seem fair to say you can’t show something because of what viewers theoretically might do in response, we draw the line at content that’s intended to incite violence or encourage dangerous, illegal activities that have an inherent risk of serious physical harm or death. This means not posting videos on things like instructional bomb making, ninja assassin training, sniper attacks, videos that train terrorists, or tips on illegal street racing. Any depictions like these should be educational or documentary and shouldn’t be designed to help or encourage others to imitate them." Some are skeptical, see Wired.
Power Grid Vulnerable
Friday, September 12 - According to Congress Daily, "During a hearing before the Energy and Commerce Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee, several witnesses and lawmakers argued that the threat to the nation's power grid from cyberattacks is real and urged lawmakers to enact legislation to give FERC additional powers to order utilities to take the necessary steps to address the problem."
Afghan/Pakistan Border Heats Up
Thursday, September 11 - Saeed Shah writes in the Globe and Mail that al-Qaeda and "its local partners have destabilized nuclear-armed Pakistan, and largely taken over its northwest fringe. Afghanistan has been sent into a tailspin of violence. While al-Qaeda was beaten back in Iraq... its influence is now entrenched in Pakistan and Afghanistan, from where it is feared that terror strikes against the West are still being planned." Yesterday the Pakistani Army Chief criticized US and NATO cross-border operations from Afghanistan. This morning the New York Times reports, "President Bush secretly approved orders in July that for the first time allow American Special Operations forces to carry out ground assaults inside Pakistan without the prior approval of the Pakistani government..."
Terrorism Trails Economy, Energy and More
Thursday, September 11 - On the seventh anniversary of 9/11,Terrorism is no longer a major issue for most Americans according to recent polls. Some suggest this is because the battle against terrorism is being won. According to the Human Security Brief, there has been "a sharp net decline in the incidence of terrorist violence around the world."
Earthquakes in South and East Asia
Thursday, September 11 - Two nearly simultaneous earthquakes shook the Pacific "ring of fire" earlier today. Another strong earthquake caused damage and at least one death in southern Iran and the Persian Gulf on Wednesday.
Earth is not Destroyed
Wednesday, September 10 - Early today the Large Hadron Collider produced its first energy beam. In his book Catastrophe: Risk and Response, Richard Posner explained that some are worried about the LHC producing a strangelet disaster. This would consist of a shower of quarks that could "convert anything else encountered into a strange new form of matter." A second beam will be spawned later today.
African Coast Clears
Wednesday, September 10 - After two very active weeks, Hurricane Ike remains the only tropical threat to the Eastern and Southern United States. There are currently no organized lows off West Africa. This suggests five days or more when an Atlantic hurricane is unlikely.
Report Highlights WMD Threat
Tuesday, September 9 - The Partnership for a Secure America will release a report tomorrow highlighting US vulnerability to a catastrophic attack using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons of mass destruction. UPDATE: Access the full report here.
Recovery Underway in Haiti, Cuba, and on the Gulf
Tuesday, September 9 - Reeling from four major storms in three weeks Haiti is "hell on earth," according to a United Nations official. Hurricane Ike strafed much of Cuba and will probably hit again before heading into the Gulf. In the US the gulf coast continues to recover from Gustav as it appears Ike may target Texas and Mexico. Late Monday New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said, "It would be difficult to get people to move again for Ike after so many evacuated for Gustav. People are so weary and so financially tapped." Over 137,000 Southern Louisiana residents remain without electricity, according to CNN.
UK Convicts Three Terrorists
Tuesday, September 9 - On Monday a British court convicted three of eight arrested in 2006 for plotting to bomb several transatlantic airliners. The Daily Telegraph reports police believe several involved in the plot are still at-large.
Same Ends Different Means
Barring some horrible attack, terrorism will not compete with the economy, energy, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as top-tier issues in this year's Presidential election. Limited public and media attention translates into less attention by the candidates. But some policy differences are beginning to emerge.
In his acceptance speech Barack Obama said, "I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al-Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and curb Russian aggression. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future."
One week later John McCain said, "We have dealt a serious blow to al-Qaida in recent years. But they are not defeated, and they'll strike us again if they can. Iran remains the chief state sponsor of terrorism and on the path to acquiring nuclear weapons. Russia's leaders, rich with oil wealth and corrupt with power, have rejected democratic ideals and the obligations of a responsible power... We face many threats in this dangerous world, but I'm not afraid of them. I'm prepared for them. I know how the military works, what it can do, what it can do better, and what it should not do. I know how the world works. I know the good and the evil in it. I know how to work with leaders who share our dreams of a freer, safer and more prosperous world, and how to stand up to those who don't."
Remarkably similar targets and tools. The differences in approach are subtle, but potentially important.
The party platforms are regularly dismissed as having no practical impact. But they tend to reflect the priorities and prejudices of the next President's political base. Both party platforms give attention to a similar line-up of threats: nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism, bio-terrorism and cyber-terrorism. Each of the party platforms urge greater investment in and productivity from intelligence gathering and sharing. Both bow in appreciation to first responders.
The Republican Party platform (pdf) includes a preface to its section on Defending Our Nation, "The waging of war — and the achieving of peace — should never be micromanaged in a party platform, or on the floor of the Senate and House of Representatives for that matter. In dealing with present conflicts and future crises, our next president must preserve all options. It would be presumptuous to specify them in advance and foolhardy to rule out any action deemed necessary for our security."
The Democratic Party platform includes a section entitled, Reclaiming our Constitution and our Liberties. It says in part, "As we combat terrorism, we must not sacrifice the American values we are fighting to protect. In recent years, we’ve seen an Administration put forward a false choice between the liberties we cherish and the security we demand. The Democratic Party rejects this dichotomy. We will restore our constitutional traditions, and recover our nation’s founding commitment to liberty under law... (several critiques of recent executive branch action are then listed.) We reject sweeping claims of “inherent” presidential power... We believe that our Constitution, our courts, our institutions, and our traditions work."
The Founders' clearly intended to give the Executive significant war-time powers. They did not, however, anticipate the extended wars of the 20th and, apparently, 21st Centuries. One party suggests that the Executive should be able to deploy "any action deemed necessary for our security." The other party argues that even (especially?) in waging war the Executive's power must be constrained.
This Thursday, September 11, Senators Obama and McCain will stand together where evil had its way. They agree on the profound challenge of terrorism. Both claim they aim to protect our hard-won liberties. To a remarkable degree they agree on how the current struggle should be concluded. But the two men and their parties reflect different attitudes regarding the means to be used.
It will be the voters who determine which means are best suited to preserve for ourselves and to our posterity the blessings of liberty. The choice is not clear and easy. If anyone of either party thinks it is, they should think again. But if the people choose badly the loss of liberty - more likely through slow erosion than sudden flood - will be difficult to redeem. As with so many of the risks considered here in prior weeks, the calculus of threat, vulnerability, and consquence is difficult.
Abraham Lincoln, the lawyer who prosecuted America's most awful conflict, knew something of evil and waging war. He made tough decisions that some have argued were beyond his Constitutional authority. But with the exception of James Madison no other President has left us so many love letters to the Constitution. President Lincoln predicted, "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter, and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
In his acceptance speech Barack Obama said, "I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al-Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and curb Russian aggression. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future."
One week later John McCain said, "We have dealt a serious blow to al-Qaida in recent years. But they are not defeated, and they'll strike us again if they can. Iran remains the chief state sponsor of terrorism and on the path to acquiring nuclear weapons. Russia's leaders, rich with oil wealth and corrupt with power, have rejected democratic ideals and the obligations of a responsible power... We face many threats in this dangerous world, but I'm not afraid of them. I'm prepared for them. I know how the military works, what it can do, what it can do better, and what it should not do. I know how the world works. I know the good and the evil in it. I know how to work with leaders who share our dreams of a freer, safer and more prosperous world, and how to stand up to those who don't."
Remarkably similar targets and tools. The differences in approach are subtle, but potentially important.
The party platforms are regularly dismissed as having no practical impact. But they tend to reflect the priorities and prejudices of the next President's political base. Both party platforms give attention to a similar line-up of threats: nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism, bio-terrorism and cyber-terrorism. Each of the party platforms urge greater investment in and productivity from intelligence gathering and sharing. Both bow in appreciation to first responders.
The Republican Party platform (pdf) includes a preface to its section on Defending Our Nation, "The waging of war — and the achieving of peace — should never be micromanaged in a party platform, or on the floor of the Senate and House of Representatives for that matter. In dealing with present conflicts and future crises, our next president must preserve all options. It would be presumptuous to specify them in advance and foolhardy to rule out any action deemed necessary for our security."
The Democratic Party platform includes a section entitled, Reclaiming our Constitution and our Liberties. It says in part, "As we combat terrorism, we must not sacrifice the American values we are fighting to protect. In recent years, we’ve seen an Administration put forward a false choice between the liberties we cherish and the security we demand. The Democratic Party rejects this dichotomy. We will restore our constitutional traditions, and recover our nation’s founding commitment to liberty under law... (several critiques of recent executive branch action are then listed.) We reject sweeping claims of “inherent” presidential power... We believe that our Constitution, our courts, our institutions, and our traditions work."
The Founders' clearly intended to give the Executive significant war-time powers. They did not, however, anticipate the extended wars of the 20th and, apparently, 21st Centuries. One party suggests that the Executive should be able to deploy "any action deemed necessary for our security." The other party argues that even (especially?) in waging war the Executive's power must be constrained.
This Thursday, September 11, Senators Obama and McCain will stand together where evil had its way. They agree on the profound challenge of terrorism. Both claim they aim to protect our hard-won liberties. To a remarkable degree they agree on how the current struggle should be concluded. But the two men and their parties reflect different attitudes regarding the means to be used.
It will be the voters who determine which means are best suited to preserve for ourselves and to our posterity the blessings of liberty. The choice is not clear and easy. If anyone of either party thinks it is, they should think again. But if the people choose badly the loss of liberty - more likely through slow erosion than sudden flood - will be difficult to redeem. As with so many of the risks considered here in prior weeks, the calculus of threat, vulnerability, and consquence is difficult.
Abraham Lincoln, the lawyer who prosecuted America's most awful conflict, knew something of evil and waging war. He made tough decisions that some have argued were beyond his Constitutional authority. But with the exception of James Madison no other President has left us so many love letters to the Constitution. President Lincoln predicted, "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter, and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
September 1 - 5, 2008
Emergency Enters Seventh Year
Friday, September 5 - According to Homeland Security Watch and the White House President Bush has renewed the Emergency Declaration made in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. HLSWatch includes a summary of a Congressional Research Office study of the declaration's implications.
Pakistan Protests Ground Attack
Friday, September 5 - Pakistan alleges a Wednesday attack by US forces inside its borders. According to the BBC, "US-led and Nato forces have said they have no reports of any troop incursion. But off the record, US military sources confirm that US commandoes carried out Wednesday's raid against a suspected al-Qaeda target - and say it could signal a tougher approach to cross-border militancy.
Thursday's attack occurred in the village of Mohammad Khel near Miranshah in North Waziristan, local officials said."
Hanna Hits Haiti Hard
Friday, September 5 - At least 137 Haitians were killed in flooding caused by Hanna. The tropical storm is expected to hit the US mainland early Saturday morning. Hurricane Ike has weakened slightly but is predicted to intensify in the next 48 hours. UPDATE: Reuters reports that the Haitian death toll from Hanna is much higher.
Terrorism Charged at GOP Convention
Thursday, September 4 - According to the Los Angeles Times, "As clashes between police and protesters subsided outside the Republican National Convention on Wednesday, county prosecutors charged eight people with conspiring to cause a riot as part of a terrorist act. The eight suspects were arrested in connection with raids of homes in the Twin Cities that were conducted by the Ramsey County Sheriff's Department before the convention began.The charges are highly unusual because of the terrorism aspect. Ramsey County Atty. Susan Gaertner said she could recall no such case in her 24 years with the prosecutor's office."This was the most serious charge that we found that was supported by the evidence," she said. "The terrorism aspect is appropriate. This is not your average criminal charge, but this was not your average crime." If convicted, the suspects could each face up to five years in jail, a $10,000 fine, or both.
Gustav Success Breeds Concern
Thursday, September 4 - Several reports suggest the weakening of Gustav and the strains of evacuation may undermine public cooperation the next time an evacuation is ordered.
Hanna and Ike
Thursday, September 4 - Hanna has weakened to a tropical storm but is expected to reach hurricane strength before landfall early Saturday near the border of South Carolina and North Carolina. The more powerful Ike (currently a Category 4) remains Northeast of the Leeward Islands with Tropical Storm Josephine close behind.
Scientist Indicted for Resisting Detention
Wednesday, September 3 - According to the Washington Post, "Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani national who lived in the United States for 12 years, faces a possible life sentence for allegedly grabbing a U.S. Army officer's M-4 rifle while she was detained, shooting at another Army officer and threatening all seven members of an Army and FBI interview team before she was shot and subdued." Siddiqui, age 36, is a US educated scientist suspected of supporting Al Qaeda in planning mass casualty attacks. The arrest of Siddiqui in Afghanistan has prompted considerable sympathy in Pakistani media reports and some official circles.
Chemical Explosion Investigation Begins
Tuesday, September 2 - The Chemical Safety Board has begun its formal investigation of the August 28 explosion at the Bayer CropScience plant in Institute, West Virginia (see prior blogging). According to the Charlestown Gazette nearly an hour transpired before a shelter-in-place order was communicated to the public.
Hurricanes Line Up in Atlantic
Tuesday, September 2 - Gustav came ashore as a Category 2 storm, a reasonable mid-term test of strategic choices, but not yet an intimidating final exam. Hanna and two other likely hurricanes lined up behind it. More on Tropical Storm Ike is available from the National Hurricane Center
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