Monday (P)review

Past as Prologue

2008-12-15T04:56:00.000-08:00

Ice storm cuts power in New Hampshire. From the Manchester Union-Leader.

Later today (Monday, December 15) President-elect Obama's National Security team will meet in Chicago. I would not want to be in charge of setting the agenda.

Last Sunday we remembered the attack on Pearl Harbor. On Monday white powder envelopes were received by many of the nation's Governors. More envelopes arrived on Tuesday and Wednesday. Talks with North Korea regarding its nuclear program stalled on Wednesday. On Thursday Belgian authorities conducted sixteen raids on suspected terrorist cells. In Morocco the Interior Ministry announced the arrest of several suspected terrorists who are accused of planning bank robberies to finance terrorist operations. On Thursday the World Health Organization confirmed another human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. On Friday an ice storm hit the Northeast United States knocking out power to millions. Earlier today the Boston Globe reported that at least 300,000 will continue without power for several days. On Saturday the Indian navy announced the arrest of 23 pirates in the Gulf of Aden. Intensive diplomatic efforts continued throughout the week in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks. There were bombings in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Et cetera, et cetera.

Effective leadership often involves distinguishing between what is important and what is urgent. The distinction can sometimes be subtle.

The to-be-nominated Secretary of Homeland Security is a member of the National Security team. It has not yet been decided if there will be a White House Homeland Security Advisor.

Which of the incidents listed are Homeland Security incidents? Which are National Security incidents? Which are both?

Which of the incidents listed are important? Which are urgent? How did you decide?

Which of the incidents present the most likely threat to more Americans? Which present the most consequential threats? What are the top risks? How did you decide?

The new week began with an editorial in the Sunday Times arguing that the "National Guard is ideally designed to reinforce homeland security" and urging President-elect Obama to avoid over-using the Guard for missions abroad.

I understand the new national security team will meet for a couple of hours. Would be interesting to hear how they choose priorities. Just the last few days present a powerful prologue for their continued work.

NOTE TO READERS: This is the last MONDAY (P)REVEW expected to be published in 2008.

Focusing on Any Single Threat is Risky

2008-12-06T04:30:00.000-08:00

On Tuesday I met with a retired four-star general. He is a thoughtful and experienced man concerned that prevention of terrorism does not and will not receive sufficient priority. He pointed to the lack of attention to terrorism in the election, recent public opinion surveys, and the lessons of human nature.

That this worry was credible in the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attack seemed a bit surreal. While the general and I were talking the Commission on Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism released its report titled World at Risk. As is required of any report hoping to garner attention it offered a breath-taking warning, "It is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013."

The media took the bait and appropriately apocalyptic headlines were offered: Alarm raised on threat of mass assault (Financial Times), US sees WMD attack by 2013 (Arab News) 1900 Days and Counting (Newsweek), Biological terror attack likely by 2013 (CNN), Report Sounds Alarm Over Bioterror (Washington Post) and many more of similar tone. If anything US headlines were understated compared to the international media. Not everyone agrees with the findings, but we have learned it is dangerous to underestimate the imagination and persistence of our terrorist adversaries.

The Commission report is thoughtful and helpful. There is also nothing really new in what is offered. In December 2002 the White House announced a new Homeland Security Presidential Directive entitled National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction. While the HSPD is classified we know the first sentence reads, "Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) -- nuclear, biological, and chemical -- in the possession of hostile states and terrorists represent one of the greatest security challenges facing the United States. We must pursue a comprehensive strategy to counter this threat in all of its dimensions."

In terms of the Commission's warning of a biological attack, in April 2004 the White House released HSPD-10 entitled BioDefense for the 21st Century. The details are secret. But a declassified overview explains, "Biological weapons attacks could be mounted either inside or outside the United States and, because some biological weapons agents are contagious, the effects of an initial attack could spread widely. Disease outbreaks, whether natural or deliberate, respect no geographic or political borders. Preventing and controlling future biological weapons threats will be even more challenging. Advances in biotechnology and life sciences -- including the spread of expertise to create modified or novel organisms -- present the prospect of new toxins, live agents, and bioregulators that would require new detection methods, preventive measures, and treatments. These trends increase the risk for surprise. Anticipating such threats through intelligence efforts is made more difficult by the dual-use nature of biological technologies and infrastructure, and the likelihood that adversaries will use denial and deception to conceal their illicit activities. The stakes could not be higher for our Nation."

Four years later essentially the same finding is headline news. This is the part of human nature that worries the general.

There is a widespread expectation that the Obama administration may appoint high-level "czars" to coordinate national policy and strategy related to nuclear, biological, and cyber threats. Certainly nothing wrong with that. It is tough to coordinate a big beast like the federal government, even harder when there is a need for cooperation with foreign governments, the States, and private sector.

But all of this is a bit reminiscent of Chicken Little. In focusing on one possible threat - the sky is falling - we can too often neglect an even more significant threat - Foxy Loxy. I am not suggesting the bio-terrorist threat is analogous to a mere pebble or acorn or cherry (the original threat analysis was ambiguous). But rather than be preoccupied with any particular threat, we need the discipline of ongoing risk awareness and adaptation to the risk environment.

This kind of risk awareness is hard. It is not part of our human nature (pdf). For a variety of reasons that paid dividends in our evolutionary past, we tend to discount future risks even while we react - sometimes irrationally - to current threats, perceived or real. The general is right to be worried.

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks new professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.

Mumbai: A Resilient Reality

2008-12-02T05:58:00.000-08:00

The Taj Hotel in flames. Photo by Gautam Singh, Associated Press

The siege of Mumbai left 174 dead, iconic properties heavily damaged, and an increased sense of vulnerability... even far from India. But the Cafe Leopold has reopened. Trains continue to roll in and out of the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, and the Mumbai stock exchange traded within an entirely reasonable range, not obviously effected by the weekend's tragic turmoil and more certainly influenced by Monday's sharp slide in US stocks.

There have been private catastrophes. But the great city of 18.4 million people has quickly returned to its daily occupations.

The most serious threat to the security, economy, and prospects of Mumbai, India, and South Asia comes not from the weekend's terrorist action - no matter how heinous - but from potential reactions to terrorism.

India has quickly asserted the terrorists were members of a Pakistan based group with a history of attacks against India. Attempting to take action to prevent future such attacks the Indian government is pushing for the groups' leaders to be immediately handed over by Pakistan. Some Indian media reports suggest military action by India against terrorist targets in Pakistan is possible.

No credible party asserts that Pakistan's government was directly involved in the attacks. The Islamabad regime has, in fact, worked to signal its shared concern over terrorism by promising to dispatch a senior intelligence official to work with Indian authorities to assess the origins and outcomes of the Mumbai attacks. (An offer that may now be in doubt.) But it would be political suicide for the Pakistan government to succumb to current Indian demands.

Tensions have clearly - and quite predictably - increased between the two nuclear-armed neighbors and long-time adversaries.

A principal tactical objective of the Mumbai attacks was sustained global media attention. That objective was certainly achieved. A preferred strategic objective is almost certainly to further undermine the current government of Pakistan and to eliminate Indo-Pakistani cooperation in anti-terrorism. Without great care and considerable wisdom this objective could be delivered to the terrorists over the next few days.

Terrorist tactics are often aimed at pushing victims to respond in ways that serve the strategic self-interest of the terrorists. Mumbai has, in most ways, already recovered from the attacks. But can Mumbai - and the rest of the world - avoid the self-destructive reactions that now seem so tempting?

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks new professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.

Tough Times Predicted

2008-11-23T03:42:00.000-08:00

The International Monetary Fund's Board of Governors

The National Intelligence Council predicts a significant shift in the US risk profile between now and 2025. According to a report released last week the next two decades will feature intense international competition for markets, energy, and even water. This competition will increase friction between cultures and regions. Managing the competition will be complicated by dwindling US dominance and the weakness of international institutions.

Some key findings:

A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and others. The relative power of nonstate actors—businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and even criminal networks—also will increase.

The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue.

Continued economic growth—coupled with 1.2 billion more people by 2025—will put pressure on energy, food, and water resources.

Opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear weapons will increase as technology diffuses and nuclear power (and possibly weapons) programs expand.

The NIC report expects the United States to remain the single most powerful nation, but the relative power of the United States will decline as the affluence and influence of others increase.

The report joins many others in noting the current international framework - centered around the United Nations, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund - is incapable of responding effectively to current, much less emerging, challenges. This has been a topic of discussion for many years. The current economic crisis is pushing the process past talk to action.

At its November 15 Washington Summit the Group of Twenty outlined surprisingly detailed actions, including several to be implemented by March 31, 2009. These actions advance a new consensus view of much greater international cooperation in economic and financial regulation:

We call upon our national and regional regulators to formulate their regulations and other measures in a consistent manner. Regulators should enhance their coordination and cooperation across all segments of financial markets, including with respect to cross-border capital flows. Regulators and other relevant authorities as a matter of priority should strengthen cooperation on crisis prevention, management, and resolution.

We are committed to advancing the reform of the Bretton Woods Institutions so that they can more adequately reflect changing economic weights in the world economy in order to increase their legitimacy and effectiveness. In this respect, emerging and developing economies, including the poorest countries, should have greater voice and representation. The Financial Stability Forum (FSF) must expand urgently to a broader membership of emerging economies, and other major standard setting bodies should promptly review their membership. The IMF, in collaboration with the expanded FSF and other bodies, should work to better identify vulnerabilities, anticipate potential stresses, and act swiftly to play a key role in crisis response.

In remarks last April at the John F. Kennedy Library Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, anticipated many of these international financial reforms and pressed for similar steps across a much broader agenda:

So a new World Bank; a new International Monetary Fund; a reformed and renewed United Nations mandated and resourced that is greater than the sum of its parts; strong regional organisations from the European Union to the African Union able to bring to a troubled world the humanitarian aid, peacekeeping and the support for stability and reconstruction that has been absent for too long — all built around a new global society founded on revitalised international rules and institutions, and grounded in the great values we share in common.

In his remarks Prime Minister Brown wondered if the will to reform could be generated short of global calamity. In the unraveling of global prosperity since his speech a motivating calamity may have been provided... for better or worse.

The full NIC report is available by selecting Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. It is a large pdf exceeding 33 megabytes.

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks new professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.

Religious Terrorism Rejected

2008-11-13T13:43:00.000-08:00

Pope Benedict XVI and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.

Meetings at the Vatican and the United Nations have condemned the religious pretensions of terrorists. During the first week in November religious scholars from several faiths met at the Vatican. Last week secular leaders from many nations met in New York. Both meetings addressed the religious dimensions of terrorism.

"A joint declaration issued at the end of a Vatican sponsored three-day Muslim-Catholic forum has called for recognition by both Muslims and Christians of the rights of women and freedom of conscience, and condemned terrorism in the name of religion," the Times of London reported.

Seventy nations participated in the the UN meeting, the latest in a series of discussions organized around inter-faith issues by Saudi Arabia. In their final declaration the UN delegates offered, "“Participating States affirmed their rejection of the use of religion to justify the killing of innocent people and actions of terrorism, violence and coercion, which directly contradict the commitment of all religions to peace, justice and equality.”

In his remarks to the UN delegates President Bush argued, "We may profess different creeds and worship in different places, but our faith leads us to common values. We believe God calls us to love our neighbors, and to treat one another with compassion and respect. We believe God calls us to honor the dignity of all life, and to speak against cruelty and injustice. We believe God calls us to live in peace -- and to oppose all those who use His name to justify violence and murder."

In their Joint Declaration those meeting November 4-6 at Rome's Gregorian University wrote, "We profess that Catholics and Muslims are called to be instruments of love and harmony among believers, and for humanity as a whole, renouncing any oppression, aggressive violence and terrorism, especially that committed in the name of religion, and upholding the principle of justice for all."

The Vatican meeting was the specific result of an inter-religious controversy arising from remarks by Pope Benedict XVI at Regensburg University in 2006. Islamic scholars responded to the controversy with an open letter which, in turn, led to the organizing of recent discussions in Rome.

The open letter, originally signed by 138 leading Islamic scholars, was entitled A Common Word between Us and You. The letter begins, "Muslims and Christians together make up well over half of the world’s population. Without peace and justice between these two religious communities, there can be no meaningful peace in the world. The future of the world depends on peace between Muslims and Christians. The basis for this peace and understanding already exists. It is part of the very foundational principles of both faiths: love of the One God, and love of the neighbour. These principles are found over and over again in the sacred texts of Islam and Christianity. The Unity of God, the necessity of love for Him, and the necessity of love of the neighbour is thus the common ground between Islam and Christianity."

Recent public opinion surveys in Muslim nations have found dwindling support for terrorism in the name of Islam. Suicide bombings are, in particular, increasingly viewed as inconsistent with Islamic teaching.

Interfaith discussions are certainly not restricted to international conclaves. Recent news reports have highlighted such interactions in Los Angeles, New Haven, and more broadly.

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks a new set of professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.

Obama Sets Homeland Security Priorities

2008-11-08T06:46:00.000-08:00

Senator Obama seen at a July 16 Purdue University roundtable on new threats.

The Obama campaign committed significant resources to Homeland Security policy development. While the issue never broke into the first-tier of election issues, the campaign's paper trail suggests a substantive shift from the last seven years.

According to campaign documents, "Barack Obama and Joe Biden's strategy for securing the homeland against 21st Century threats is driven by the twin goals of preventing terrorist attacks on our homeland and investing in national resilience that enables people closest to a crisis to act and achieve an rapid return to normal." This strategy will be advanced through:

1. Preparedness for catastrophic risk,
2. Prevention and mitigation of catastrophic risk, and
3. Partnership with the states, localities and the private sector in prevention, mitigation and preparedness.

On October 19 the campaign released a long-vetted position paper (pdf) on Homeland Security. In thirteen pages the document outlines a wide range of policies. A one-page campaign summary (pdf) gives particular priority to defeat terrorism worldwide, combat 21st Century threats, secure our border and strengthen our infrastructure, and work effectively with state and local governments and the private sector.

The specific threats given most attention are nuclear terrorism, bioterrorism, cyberterrorism, and natural catastrophes. These are threats that can challenge any real recovery.

The Obama strategy leads with prevention. Almost all of the counter-terrorist tactics discussed are prevention-oriented. Improving the intelligence function receives the expected nod. But there is also a specific commitment to "establishing a grant program to support thousands more state and local level intelligence analysts and increasing our capacity to share intelligence across all levels of government."

Headline attention is given to "Prepare Effective Emergency Response Plans." This is something to which the President-elect gave attention as a member of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee. Some campaign insiders expect this to morph into giving much more priority to local and regional preparedness, prevention, and mitigation planning. Rigorous local plans - instead of detailed DHS requirements - will become the foundation of national risk management.

Woven consistently into the Obama plan is an emphasis on - perhaps even a deference to - local leadership. The campaign policy statement includes, "The risks facing this nation cannot be effectively prevented or managed by the federal government alone. Barack Obama knows that prevention, mitigation, response and recovery are primarily local issues... The federal government must begin by listening to local concerns and acknowledging local priorities. The private sector has proven its willingness and ability to work in support of our nation’s security, but they have not been fully engaged as a partner by the federal government. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will reach out to the private sector in order to leverage its expertise and assets to protect our homeland. Our city police, county sheriffs, firefighters, state police, public health professionals, EMTs, hospital staff, public works personnel, emergency managers, electric utilities crews, transportation workers, Red Cross volunteers – and so many more hometown heroes – must be confident of federal competence, cooperation, and support before, during, and after a disaster."

Also referenced in the campaign documents is, "He (Obama) will invest in strengthening our aging infrastructure to improve both safety and security." This Homeland Security tactic is likely to be amplified as the federal government makes major infrastructure investments as part of its economic recovery effort.

The exegesis could continue. The Obama Homeland Security policy documents are dense and detailed. Many more policy papers remain in campaign (now transition) files, ready to be used. But if even these few strategic priorities are effectively implemented it will mark a decided shift in the Department of Homeland Security and in how our nation engages risk.

November 2 - 8, 2008

2008-11-04T01:51:00.000-08:00

Terrorist Threat Growing

Saturday, November 8 - "Secret enclaves of al-Qaeda extremists based in London, Birmingham and Luton are planning mass-casualty attacks in Britain," according to late Saturday reports. The Sunday Telegraph has made this its lead story for Remembrance Sunday.

Pakistan Warns and Welcomes

Saturday, November 8 - Coincident with the obligatory congratulations to the new US President, Pakistan's government and general public continue to protest US operations in the Pakistan-Afghan border region.

White House Hacked

Saturday, November 8 - The Financial Times reports, "Chinese hackers have penetrated the White House computer network on multiple occasions and obtained e-mails between government officials." Similar attacks on the McCain and Obama campaign systems have also been reported.

Pandemic Threat Persists

Friday, November 7 - With the financial crisis diverting politicians’ attention, and no sign after a decade that the H5N1 virus is set to trigger a pandemic, public health specialists are worried that the world is turning its back on the continued threat of a lethal flu outbreak," according to the Financial Times.

Material Support Charge Ruled Unconstitutional

Friday, November 7 - A federal judge in Oregon has ruled a law prohibiting material support for terrorists is unconstitutional because it is too vague. U.S. District Judge Garr King said the Treasury Department violated the rights of the Oregon chapter of a defunct Islamic charity based in Saudi Arabia," according to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Most Leads Don't Lead

Friday, November 7 - The FBI tracked about 108,000 potential terrorism threats or suspicious incidents from mid-2004 to November 2007, but most were found groundless, a Justice Department review found on Friday. (More from Reuters and DOJ Office of the Inspector General)

Tokyo Dirty Bomb Exercise

Friday, November 7 - On Thursday Japanese authorities conducted an especially intricate interagency exercise focused on the threat of a dirty bomb being exploded in Tokyo.

Interfaith Meeting Condemns Terrorism

Friday, November 7 - "A joint declaration issued at the end of the Vatican's three-day Muslim-Catholic forum has called for recognition by both Muslims and Christians of the rights of women and freedom of conscience, and condemned terrorism in the name of religion," according to the Times of London.

Early Blizzard

Friday, November 7 - More than a foot of snow, high winds, white-out conditions, and significant transportation and power problems hit the northern plains.

Secret Deal with Pakistan?

Thursday, November 6 - David Ignatius reports that the US and Pakistan have reached an informal understanding regarding US operations into Pakistan.

CQ Projects Obama Homeland Security Policy

Wednesday, November 5 - Congressional Quarterly provides a quick overview of an anticipated counter-terrorism and Homeland Security policy for an Obama administration. This will be the focus of next Monday's (P)review.

Low Pressure in Caribbean

Tuesday, November 4 - A broad area of low pressure south of Cuba has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next few days. More from the National Hurricane Center. UPDATE: Hurricane Paloma formed late Thursday. UPDATE 2: Paloma made its Cuban landfall late Saturday night as a CAT4 hurricane.

Pakistan Warns Petraeus

Tuesday, November 4 - The next U.S. president must halt missile strikes on insurgent targets in northwest Pakistan or risk failure in its efforts to end militancy in the Muslim country, the prime minister warned General David Petraeus.

Second Gitmo Conviction

Tuesday, November 4 - A military panel at the Guantánamo Bay naval base convicted Ali Hamza al Bahlul, a former propaganda chief for Al Qaeda, of terrorism charges on Monday and sentenced him to life in prison, according to the New York Times. In separate legal action, six Algerian detainees have filed for a habeas corpus hearing.

Blacklists Challenged

Tuesday, November 4 - The United Nations blacklist of alleged terrorism financiers is facing legal challenges and dwindling support. Challenges to the U.N. list, which contains 503 individuals, businesses and groups, are coming from courts in Europe, including the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg, which ruled the blacklist is illegal because it lacks accountability and a mechanism for those on it to challenge their inclusion, the Washington Post reported Sunday.

Focus on Outcomes not Origins

2008-11-02T02:39:00.000-08:00

"The next U.S. president will govern in an era of increasing international instability, including a heightened risk of terrorist attacks in the near future, long-term prospects of regional conflicts and diminished U.S. dominance across the globe," is how the Washington Post summarized a speech last week by the CIA director.

The CIA is appropriately focused on assessing threats from outside the United States. But external threats do not constitute the nation's only or necessarily most serious risks.

Last week President Bush spoke at graduation ceremonies for the FBI Academy. "Here at home, we've transformed our national security institutions and have given our intelligence and law enforcement professionals the tools and the resources they need to do their job, and that is to protect the American people. We formed a new Department of Homeland Security. We created a new Director for National Intelligence. We established a program at the Central Intelligence Agency to interrogate key terrorist leaders captured in the war on terror... Since 9/11, the Bureau has worked with our partners around the world to disrupt planned terrorist attacks."

Counter-terrorism deserves sustained attention. Is there similar priority and sufficient strategic attention given to other catastrophic risks?

Last week a United Nations conference declared the risk of pandemic has never been higher. Concern for domestic terrorism was underlined by the arrest of white supremacists planning a killing spree. An extended wildfire season in many areas of the United States has depleted budgets and exhausted firefighters. We are past due for a major California earthquake. Hurricane recovery continues on the Gulf Coast.

In February 2007 the British think-tank Demos recommended a fundamental reconceiving of national security. The Demos report cites a "broad spectrum of threats and hazards to national security." Among those listed are, terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, organized crime, espionage, fragile states, natural disasters, pandemics, energy security, and vulnerability of critical national infrastructure.

Rather than focusing on the origin of a threat, the Demos report suggests giving more attention to the outcome of a risk. What is the consequence of a calculated risk? What is the likelihood of a threat? What are our greatest risks regardless of origin?

We can be creatures of our categories, how we organize reality. From time beyond memory we have tended to organize our threats by the enemy outside, the criminal inside, and the unfolding of mysterious fate or divine punishment or random accident. For each of these origins we have had a different attitude and response.

Tactically the focus on different origins can be helpful. Strategically the focus on origins rather than outcomes can discourage effective prevention, mitigation, and readiness. Recognizing this the United Kingdom's 2008 National Security Strategy (pdf) encourages more attention to relative risk rather than just external threats.

Geographically and constitutionally - even geologically and meteorologically - the US situation is more complicated than that of the British. A small island nation two generations removed from imperial ambition is more predisposed to comprehensive risk analysis than a continent-striding superpower.

But the consequences of Katrina - and the entirely predictable economic, social, political, and human consequences of a major California quake or serious pandemic - should be sufficiently clear to encourage more coordinated attention to the whole horizon of risk.

One modest step the new administration might take is the creation of a White House Council for Risk Estimation. This body would work to provide the President and cabinet a framework for prioritizing risk. Similar to how the National Intelligence Council supports the Director of National Intelligence, the Council for Risk Estimation would:

Coordinate the contributions of Federal agencies to evaluate risk outcomes and priorities.

Reach out to nongovernment experts in academia, the private sector, and State and local agencies to broaden the Federal understanding of risk.

Produce National Risk Estimates (NREs) and related products to support policy making and resource allocation.

Contribute to decisions by the President, Office of Management and Budget and Cabinet agencies to allocate resources in a manner to reflect risk priorities.

October 27 - November 1, 2008

2008-10-28T04:52:00.000-07:00

Louisiana Refinery Fire

Friday, October 31 - A three-alarm fire sent up a large plume of black smoke over a Shreveport refinery Thursday after area residents reported an explosion. No injuries were reported, according to the Associated Press. The refinery has a history of OSHA fines, according to the Shreveport Times.

President Praises FBI

Friday, October 31 - President George W. Bush told a graduating class at the FBI Academy at Quantico Marine Corps Base yesterday that the fact that a major terrorist attack has not hit U.S. soil since Sept. 11, 2001, is "not an accident." Some are suggesting the anti-terrorist focus will only intensify in the remaining months of a Bush Presidency.

Jellyfish Attack Nuclear Plant

Thursday, October 30 - The Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Station, near San Luis Obispo, California, was shut down by an attack of Jellyfish. Infestations of Jellyfish are increasingly common.

Heavy Snow

Wednesday, October 29 - A foot or more of lake effect snow closed schools, cut power, and snarled traffic across Northern New York. The same system brought measureable snow as far south as the Carolina mountains.

Canadian Trial Convicts of Terrorism

Wednesday, October 29 - "A Canadian software developer who designed and built a remote-control device meant to trigger bomb blasts was found guilty of financing and facilitating terrorism," according to the Toronto Star.

Federal Judge Defines Enemy Combatant

Tuesday, October 28 - Al-Qaida or Taliban supporters who directly assisted in hostile acts against the United States or its allies can be held without charges as enemy combatants, a federal judge ruled Monday. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Richard J. Leon takes a first step toward resolving the fate of some of the hundreds of men — many who have been held for years without charges — detained as terror suspects at the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. (More from the Associated Press.)

Candidates Contrasted

Tuesday, October 28 - Newsday has published a comparison of the Obama and McCain positions on Homeland Security.

Skinheads Accused of Killing Spree Plot

Tuesday, October 28 - Two Tennessee residents have been arrested for conspiracy and weapons charges in an alleged plan to engage in robbery, mass murder, and an attempted assassination of Barack Obama. More from Reuters.

Which Model Gitmo or Ft. Dix?

2008-10-25T13:34:00.000-07:00

Above is a sketch of the military commission trial of Salim Hamdan.

As the trial of five men accused of planning to attack Ft. Dix got underway last week, the New York Times reported the White House will let the next President decide what to do with those detained at Guantanamo Bay. The coincidence highlights two very different angles on counterterrorism.

"The administration is now proceeding on the assumption that Guantánamo will remain open not only for the rest of Bush's presidency but also well beyond, the officials said, as the site for military tribunals of those facing charges for terrorism-related crimes and for the long prison sentences that could follow convictions," the Times reported on October 20.

"The new president will gnash his teeth and beat his head against the wall when he realizes how complicated it is to close Guantánamo," the Times quoted an unnamed administration official as saying.

Part of the issue is the continued lack of legal consensus on a definition for enemy combatant. On Wednesday Federal Judge Richard J. Leon, presiding over a habeas corpus hearing for six Gitmo detainees, complained, ""I don't understand, I really don't, how the Supreme Court made the decision it made and left that question open. . . .I don't understand how the Congress could let it go this long without resolving" it." (More from the Boston Globe)

No such controversy complicates the trial of the Ft. Dix defendants. The men are charged with attempted murder, conspiracy to murder uniformed military personnel, and weapons offenses.

"Their motive was to defend Islam. Their inspiration was al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden. Their intent was to kill members of the United States armed services," Deputy U.S. Attorney William Fitzpatrick told the jurors according to the Associated Press.

According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, "Six suspects were originally charged in the Fort Dix case. One, Agron Abdullahu, 25, a baker in a ShopRite store near Williamstown (NJ), pleaded guilty to a conspiracy charge, admitting he had given weapons to three of the other defendants. He was sentenced to 20 months in prison."

"The five other defendants, charged with the more serious offense of plotting to kill soldiers, are brothers Dritan Duka, 29, Shain Duka, 27, and Eljvir Duka, 24; Mohamad Shnewer, 23; and Serdar Tatar, 24. The Dukas and Shnewer are from Cherry Hill. Tatar is a former Cherry Hill resident who was living in Philadelphia when he and the others were arrested."

"Shnewer, who was born in Jordan, is a U.S. citizen. Tatar, born in Turkey, is a legal resident immigrant. The Duka brothers, ethnic Albanians from what is now Macedonia, have been living in the country illegally since arriving as young children by way of Mexico in the late 1980s."

The legal action taken against the five is "a type of pre-emptive prosecution that has grown more common in U.S. terrorism cases since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks," according to the Associated Press. "Prosecutors are trying to prove not only that they arrested the right men, but that the suspects were planning a crime. Defense lawyers are likely to argue that while their clients may have spoken ill of America and even rooted for terrorists, that does not mean they intended to kill soldiers. They will also question the character, motives and role of two paid government informants who made hundreds of hours of secret recordings that form the bulk of the evidence in the trial."

The trials of alleged terrorists at Guantanamo have been slow to proceed as wrangling continues over their legal status and the sufficiency of due process. In August seven years after Gitmo received its first inmates, Salim Ahmed Hamdan was the first one convicted. The verdict was that he had provided material support for terrorism.

At least four military prosecutors have resigned their Guantanamo cases. According to the Los Angeles Times in September Lt. Col. Darrel J. Vandeveld explained his resignation being the result of a military commissions process so dysfunctional that it deprives "the accused of basic due process and subjects the well-intentioned prosecutor to claims of ethical misconduct."

Due almost certainly to Vandeveld's resignation on Tuesday charges were dismissed against five Guantanamo detainees.

In a book published late last winter Philip Bobbitt anticipated these controversies. He wrote, "The states of consent must develop rules that define what terrorism is, who is a terrorist, and what states can lawfully do to fight terrorists and terrorism… We must do this because an open society depends upon a government strong enough and foresighted enough to protect individual rights. If we fail to develop these legal standards, we will find we are progressively militarizing the domestic environment without having quite realized that we are at war. And, when a savage mass strike against us does come, we will react in a fury that ultimately does damage to our self-respect, our ideals, and our institutions."

October 20 - 25, 2008

2008-10-21T14:45:00.000-07:00

Pandemic Report

Friday, October 24 - A Joint UN and World Bank study finds, "A global analysis of the (avian influenza) situation now in mid to late 2008 indicates fewer outbreaks in poultry, fewer newly infected countries, fewer human cases and fewer deaths compared to the same period in 2006 and 2007. Over 50 of the 61 countries that have experience an H5N1 outbreak, have successfully eliminated the disease. However, the virus remains entrenched in several countries and the threat of further outbreaks of HPAI in poultry (and sporadic cases in humans) persists. The threat of an influenza pandemic remains unchanged. While these findings suggest that HPAI strategies are successful when properly implemented, they also highlight that sustained vigilance and continued investment is needed in both surveillance and capacity to respond to HPAI." The complete report is available in pdf.

Recovery Hard in Haiti

Friday, October 24 - The BBC reports, "More than six weeks after the fourth cyclone in three weeks hit Haiti the relief operation has almost ground to a halt according to a major aid organisation there." (See related essay in previous Monday (P)review)

Earthquake Promised

Friday, October 24 - "When the next big earthquake hits the San Francisco Bay Area, it will be a catastrophe of Hurricane Katrina proportions. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of people will die, and hundreds of thousands will become homeless. Economic losses will be on the order of $200 billion, the vast majority of it uninsured. Outside help will be desperately needed, but difficult to coordinate and execute." More from Wired, and from the BBC, and from the San Jose Mercury-News.

Stormtracking Satellites

Friday, October 24 - "The U.S. government is looking to launch a new and powerful weather satellite that will be better able to pinpoint where hurricanes and tornadoes may strike.The Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite, called GOES-R, will possess technologies not found in weather satellites such as the ability to photograph hurricane storm tracks every 30 seconds and capture images of cloud-to-cloud lightning that can precede tornadoes." More from USA Today.

Domestic Intelligence Considered

Friday, October 24 - The Rand Corporation has released a new report entitled, Reorganizing US Domestic Intelligence. The results of a Capitol Hill briefing are available from Government Executive.

LAPD Chief Warns of Possible Terrorism

Thursday, October 23 - In yesterday's New York Daily News, Los Angeles Police Chief William Bratton warns, "If Bin Laden wants to engineer a late-October surprise in 2008, an attack on a significant American economic target may be one of the most tempting opportunities he has had in recent years. One of his goals on 9/11 was to undermine our markets; he has bragged of what he calls the "success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan." Given our current financial turmoil, Bin Laden may believe that a strike against the U.S.could push our economy over the edge." (Two weeks ago Monday (P)review outlined a simiilar analysis.) Chief Bratton is one of several rumored candidates for Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in an Obama administration. The Daily News oped was co-authored by R.P. Eddy an informal advisor to the Obama campaign and member of the National Security Council under President Clinton.

Missiles Hit School

Thursday, October 23 - A suspected US missile strike has killed at least eight students at a religious school in north-western Pakistan, witnesses say. More from the BBC.

New Airline Boarding Process

Thursday, October 23 - "The Department of Homeland Security will take over responsibility for checking airline passenger names against government watch lists beginning in January, and will require travelers for the first time to provide their full name, birth date and gender as a condition for boarding commercial flights," according to the Washington Post. Writing in the October Atlantic Jeffrey Goldberg says "Airport security in America is a sham—“security theater” designed to make travelers feel better and catch stupid terrorists. Smart ones can get through security with fake boarding passes and all manner of prohibited items..."

Wildfires on Both Coasts

Wednesday, October 22 - Wildfires east of Los Angeles and another south of Atlantic City were burning Tuesday night. According to the San Diego Union Tribune catastrophic results from Southern California wildfires have been avoided only through an unprecedented deployment of the National Guard and other new firefighting resources. The Santa Fe New Mexican makes the case - and explains the complications - for using prescribed burns.

Chertoff Predicts Threat

Wednesday, October 22 - Bloomberg reports that the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, expects an increased risk of terrorist attack in the first six months after the election. "Any period of transition creates a greater vulnerability, meaning there's more likelihood of distraction... You have to be concerned it will create an operational opportunity for terrorists.''

Tanker Truck Explodes

Wednesday, October 22 - The San Francisco Chronicle reports, a "car collided with a big rig on I-880 at 16th Avenue, according to the California Highway Patrol. The truck - carrying 8,600 gallons of gasoline - exploded, and firefighters used water and foam to extinguish a blaze that sent flames shooting more than 50 feet into the air."

Preventing Pandemics

Wednesday, October 22 - Environmental surveillance - long fundamental to public health - requires a more expansive reach to prevent pandemic. "“With epidemics, people have been standing on the shore, waiting for the gusher to hit the ocean,” Dr. Wolfe said, referring to the tidal-wave impact a widespread epidemic could have around the world. “But to prevent epidemics, you have to look at the various little sources that feed into the river," according to the New York Times.

NYT Follows Monday (P)review

Wednesday, October 22 - Late yesterday the New York Times reported much of what Monday (P)review outlined in its weekly essay first published October 19 on the emerging differences in US and British approaches to counterterrorism.

Nuclear Terrorism Unlikely

Tuesday, October 21 - "Brian Michael Jenkins, a longtime terrorism expert with the Rand Corp., says that the threat (of nuclear terrorism) lies more in the realms of Hollywood dramas and terrorist dreams than in reality. There has never been an act of nuclear terrorism, he notes, yet the threat is so potentially catastrophic that it incites fear -- and that fear fulfills a terrorist's primary goal." More from the National Journal.

Powder Scare at Chase Banks

Tuesday, October 21 - "At least 30 letters containing suspicious powder have been mailed to Chase banks in eight cities but so far appear to be harmless," according to the Associated Press.

Brits Adjust Counterterror Stance

2008-10-18T14:33:00.000-07:00

Above, the House of Lords during debate.

Last week a British government proposal to lengthen the time a suspected terrorist can be detained without charge was defeated. This is the most recent of several steps suggesting a significant reordering of how best to confront the threat of terrorism. Does the British trend have implications for future US policy?

"On October 13th the second chamber voted by 309 votes to 118 to keep the period for which a terrorist suspect can be detained without charge at 28 days. The government’s counter-terrorism bill, which sought to raise the limit to 42 days, had squeaked through the House of Commons in June. But the unelected Lords, jealous of their independence and the nation’s liberties, were always likely to vote it down," according to The Economist.

Since September 11, 2001 four terrorist attacks - most dramatically the July 7, 2005 London bombings - have been executed in the United Kingdom. Several other planned attacks have been prevented, aborted, or failed. Between 1971 and 2001 the Irish Republican Army carried out dozens of deadly attacks in Britain.

Despite these long-time and more recent experiences of terrorism, Lord Goldsmith, Attorney General from 2001-2007, wrote of the cabinet's bill, "I regard it as not only unnecessary but also counterproductive; and we should fight to protect the liberties the terrorists would take from us, not destroy them ourselves. This proposal is wrong in principle and dangerous in practice."

Last week also saw the British Home Secretary withdraw a proposal that would have allowed police to monitor and collect internet-based communications. Commenting in the reliably conservative Daily Telegraph Alasdair Palmer wrote, "I am not one of those who believes that state officials are inherently evil and so bound to misuse any additional power we give them in order to destroy our freedom and our privacy. And yet: the cumulative extension of state power over the past decade is deeply worrying, even granting that each expansion has been justified. "Mission creep" is inherent in additional state surveillance or arrest powers. They nearly always end up being used for purposes very different to those for which they were granted. As we all now know, local government officials have used powers that were supposed to be used only against suspected terrorists, to spy on ordinary folk whom they suspect of such crimes as not recycling their rubbish correctly or making too much noise."

A former head of MI5, the UK's security service, goes even further. In an interview published Saturday in The Guardian, Stella Rimington calls the response to 9/11 "a huge over-reaction." She says we should "treat terrorism as a crime, and deal with it under the law - not as something extra, that you have to invent new rules to deal with." The Guardian reports Remington hopes the new US President will stop using the phrase "war on terror."

Four years ago Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry made similar comments. They were not well received by the American electorate.

A RAND study completed in the first half of 2008 found, "By analyzing a comprehensive roster of terrorist groups that existed worldwide between 1968 and 2006, the authors found that most groups ended because of operations carried out by local police or intelligence agencies or because they negotiated a settlement with their governments. Military force was rarely the primary reason a terrorist group ended..." Many saw the influence of this study on the new National Defense Strategy (pdf) released in June. (See prior attention by Monday (P)review.)

The 2008 US election has not given significant or sustained attention to the issue of terrorism. The lack of discussion during the campaign increases the flexibility of the new administration in choosing its policy approach.

October 13 -18, 2008

2008-10-14T03:11:00.000-07:00

Sulphur Leak Sickens

Friday, October 17 - "Nearly 30 people at a Mulberry phosphate and mining facility were treated this morning after being exposed to a sulfur dioxide gas leak," according to Tampa Bay Online and the Plant City Courier and Tribune.

Moroccan Court Convicts Terrorists

Friday, October 17 - "A Moroccan court has convicted 47 people over a suicide bombing last year at a Casablanca internet cafe, a lawyer said today. A criminal court in Sale, near the capital, Rabat, gave the longest jail term – of 30 years – to Abdelkrim Ougard, said Khalil Idrissi, a lawyer two other defendants. Ougard was accused of forming a criminal gang with the aim of committing terrorist acts, as well as making explosives, theft, forgery and failure to denounce terrorism." More from the Guardian.

Georgia Bombing

Friday, October 17 - The Chattanooga Free Press is providing regular updates on the bombing of a Dalton, Georgia law office at about 9:15 (Eastern) Friday morning.

Canadian Gas Pipeline Attacked

Friday, October 17 - According to the Vancouver Sun, "There could be more pipeline bombings after the second attack in a week was discovered Thursday on a sour gas pipeline near Dawson Creek..."

Arrests for Financing Terrorism

Thursday, October 16 - "Spanish police have arrested eight people suspected of aiding terrorists implicated in the 2004 Madrid bombings. Officers raided addresses in Barcelona, Madrid and the southern Andalucia region in the early hours of this morning. Police say the eight people arrested are all of Moroccan origin and are suspected of recruiting and funding al-Qaeda," according to Euronews.

CEOs Not Involved in Cybersecurity

Wednesday, October 15 - "With infrastructure like electric grids, water, and telecommunications largely in the hands on private industry, it is up to the leaders in those sectors to work with government to keep the country safe--yet the participation of chief executives in such efforts has steadily waned since September 11, 2001, according to a working group of the National Infrastructure Advisory Council," according to CNET.

Guard Planes Not Equipped for Fire

Wednesday, October 15 - "Despite pressure from elected officials and the military, the Bush administration has yet to equip some California National Guard planes for firefighting — a delay that could have grave implications during the worst of the wildfire season," according to the Associated Press.

Hurricane Hits Virgin Islands

Wednesday, October 15 - "Omar strengthened into a fierce Category 3 hurricane late Wednesday as it pummeled St. Croix with heavy rains and winds, sinking boats in the harbor, knocking down trees and forcing workers to shut down a major oil refinery," according to the Associated Press. The refinery is the second largest in the Western hemisphere processing about 500,000 barrels per day.

Three Fires Raging in California

Tuesday, October 14 - "Powerful gusts stoked three major wildfires in Southern California early Tuesday that have charred nearly 12,000 acres, destroyed dozens of homes and forced thousands of people to evacuate neighborhoods in suburban Los Angeles and northern San Diego County," according to the Associated Press. Several stories and continuing coverage is available from the Los Angeles Times.

Brits Reject Long-Detentions Without Charge

Tuesday, October 14 - The British government was forced to drop controversial plans to allow terrorism suspects to be detained for up to six weeks without charge after the measure was defeated by Britain's upper house of parliament, the House of Lords, according to Deutche Weld.

Economic Implosion: Tempting Target?

2008-10-12T02:57:00.000-07:00

Satellite image of the Ras Tanura facility.

In a recently released video (pdf) al Qaeda takes credit for US economic turmoil. The terrorist group's American-born spokesman claims, "The enemies of Islam are facing a crushing defeat, which is beginning to manifest itself in the expanding crisis their economy is experiencing... A crisis whose primary cause, in addition to the abortive and unsustainable crusades they are waging in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq, is their turning their backs on Allah's revealed laws, which forbid interest-bearing transactions, exploitation, greed and injustice in all its forms."

While the immediate claim is overstated, undermining the US economy has long been an explicit objective of al-Qaeda's strategy. Targeting the World Trade Center towers was both a symbolic and practical means of economic warfare.

Other economic targets include the 2002 attack on the Limburg a French supertanker, a credible 2004 plot to target US banks and financial institutions, and the increasing threat of economic disruption through cyberattacks.

But what many find the most chilling prospect is the targeting of Saudi oil infrastructure. Several failed attacks and an accumulation of captured terrorist documents demonstrate the intention to strike at what Osama bin Laden has called, "the provision line and the feeding to the artery of the life of the crusader nation."

In May 2004 an attack on the Saudi oil facility in Yanbu killed two Americans, two Britons, and an Australian.

In February 2006 the Saudi oil processing facility at Abqaiq was attacked with two bomb-laden vehicles and an unconfirmed number of individuals. The operation can be viewed as a tactical probe as much as an unsuccessful attack.

The biggest target is almost certainly the Saudi port of Ras Tanura, the world's largest offshore oil loading facility. Nearly 7/8's of all Saudi oil flows through this single port. It is no coincidence that the US Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain less than 50 miles southeast of Ras Tanura.

In late August an accidental fire at Ras Tanura reduced refined outputs. An attack - successful or not - would cause a spike in oil prices. Any sustained curtailment of oil shipments through Ras Tanura would almost certainly send shock waves through an energy hungry economic system.

In a new book, The Plan: How to Rescue Society the Day the Oil Stops - or the Day Before, Edwin Black describes our vulnerability, "...if one, two or all of three vital chokepoints are hit by terrorists flying hijacked 747s or Iranian military action - the Abqaiq processing plant, the Ras Tanura terminal in Saudi Arabia, or the two-mile per sea lane Strait of Hormuz - as much as 40% of all seaborne oil will be stopped, as much as 18% of all global supply will be interrupted, and from 12 to 20% of the US supply will be cut off. Estimates are the US shortfall could be even higher. Repeat attacks could prolong the crisis for many months, which is exactly what either al-Qaida or Iranian terrorists have promised."

If plans are in place for such an attack, the economic turmoil of the last few weeks makes it even more tempting to give the go-order now.

October 5 - 11, 2008

2008-10-08T02:34:00.000-07:00

California Wildfires Reignite

Saturday, October 11 - A fire in the Napa area was largely contained, but north of Los Angeles another fire has claimed over 2000 acres and continues to grow.

Pennsylvania Chemical Release

Saturday, October 11 - "A corrosive liquid overflowed from a tank at a chemical plant in western Pennsylvania on Saturday, evaporating into a toxic cloud that snaked along the ground and forced about 2,500 people to flee," according to the Associated Press.

Unstable Low in Mid-Atlantic

Friday, October 10 - There is a modest chance of an Atlantic tropical storm emerging early next week. (UPDATE: Tropical Storm Nana took shape on Sunday.) Pacific Hurricane Norbert is expected to make landfall early Saturday on Baja California and bring heavy rains to Northwestern Mexico, West Texas, and New Mexico early next week.

Pakistani Tribal Leaders Killed

Friday, October 10 - "At least 15 people have been killed in a suicide bombing at a meeting of tribal elders in a restive region of Pakistan near the Afghan border," the BBC is reporting.

College Student Charged with Terrorism

Friday, October 10 - "A 19-year-old student at Middle Tennessee State University has been arrested on terrorism charges after threatening e-mails forced the cancellation of classes," according to the Associated Press.

Government Invasion of Privacy Claimed

Friday, October 10 - ABC News reports, "... hundreds of US citizens overseas have been eavesdropped on as they called friends and family back home, according to two former military intercept operators who worked at the giant National Security Agency (NSA) center in Fort Gordon, Georgia."

Terrorism Trial Begins

Thursday, October 9 - The Guardian reports, " 'Two NHS doctors plotted "indiscriminate and wholesale' murder in a series of car bomb attacks in London and Glasgow, a court heard today. Mohammed Asha, 28, and Bilal Abdulla, 29, are accused of trying to explode two car bombs in London and attempting a suicide bomb attack on Glasgow airport last June."

Police Headquarters Bombed

Thursday, October 9 - "A suicide bomber attacked police headquarters in Islamabad, air strikes targeting Islamist fighters killed 26 people, and children died in a roadside blast on Thursday as Pakistan's war with militants intensified," according to Reuters.

Candidates Debate Terrorism and Foreign Policy

Wednesday, October 8 - In their Tuesday evening debate the US presidential candidates gave attention to US Pakistan relations and more broadly to the place of the terrorist threat in US foreign policy.

Regional Collaboration in Flood Management

Wednesday, October 8 - Several Nevada counties have joined together to prevent and mitigate flooding in a shared watershed.

British Teens Accused of Bomb Plot

Tuesday, October 7 - The prosecution outlined its case against two British teenagers who are accused of planning and purchasing ingredients for a home-made bomb.

Hurricane Caused Oil Spill

Tuesday, October 7 - According to the Associated Press, "Days before and after the storm, which destroyed oil platforms, tossed storage tanks and punctured pipelines, companies and residents reported at least 448 releases of oil, gasoline and dozens of other substances into the air and water and onto the ground in Texas and Louisiana."

Old Spill was Worse than Reported

Tuesday, October 7 - The August rupture of an oil pipeline released more oil than previously estimated.

Human Resilience Needed Too

2008-10-04T06:32:00.000-07:00

Video capture of line up for gasoline from WSB Television in Atlanta.

Resilience is increasingly accepted as a fundamental objective of Homeland Security. It is most often applied to technological and infrastructure issues. Psychological and social resilience is also an important goal for Homeland Security planning and preparedness.

Last Wednesday the Reform Institute released a new report (pdf) focused on resilience.

Regardless of our best efforts, we cannot prevent the unpreventable. Natural disasters, industrial accidents, labor disputes and the vile acts of determined terrorist organizations represent ongoing threats that possess the potential to inflict great harm and severely damage our economy and global leadership. The simple fact is that not all these hazards can be averted. Certainly we can reduce the likelihood of terrorist attacks through the use of competent intelligence systems and reasonable security measures. Likewise we can decrease the incidence of industrial accidents and labor disputes through sound management practices. Nevertheless, devastating incidents will occur. What is within our power, however, is to better prepare our nation and its critical infrastructure to absorb the blows of catastrophes in order to prevent them from seriously disrupting critical activities and destabilizing the Nation. Adopting a national mindset of resilience must be become a priority.

The Reform Institute outlines how resilience can be advanced through preparedness, protection, response, and recovery. The report also offers this definition of resilience: "A truly resilient nation can take a punch and can bounce back to a state of near normalcy in a relatively brief period of time. It faces up to the fact that catastrophes are inevitable and that its national focus should be on putting in place or reinforcing systems and programs that will help to ensure that its critical infrastructure can endure the worst of what nature and mankind have to offer."

Many studies have pointed to the lack of resiliency - even the brittle nature - of US critical infrastructure. In 1997 the General Accountability Office listed the nation's critical infrastructure as a high risk issue (pdf). In a May, 2008 report the GAO found, "The nation faces a host of serious infrastructure challenges. Demand has outpaced the capacity of our nation's surface transportation and aviation systems, resulting in decreased performance and reliability. In addition, water utilities are facing pressure to upgrade the nation's aging and deteriorating water infrastructure to improve security, serve growing demands, and meet new regulatory requirements. Given these types of challenges and the federal government's fiscal outlook, it is clear that the federal government cannot continue with business as usual. Rather, a fundamental reexamination of government programs, policies, and activities is needed."

A recently updated study by the American Society of Civil Engineers found that that that status of American physical infrastructure is close to failing. One example: "27.1 percent of bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete."

The current gasoline shortage in the Southeastern United States resulted, in part, from a vulnerability caused by the geographic concentration of critical infrastructure. The shut down of 15 gulf coast refineries by Hurricane Ike reduced regional fuel supplies by approximately 30 percent.

Many suggest this reduction should not have produced significant public inconvenience, but television pictures of long lines at gas stations and empty fuel pumps certainly created the impression of a significant shortage. A story in yesterday's (Sunday) Atlanta Journal Constitution explains,

"...panic buying, fed by continuous news coverage, created the shortage. “We’ll have a shortage as long as people believe we have a shortage,” Tudor said. “As soon as people believe there is going to be gas tomorrow, they won’t feel the necessity of trying to fill up today.”

Just as oil prices spiked, Atlanta television stations began “trumpeting short supplies of gasoline and empty tanks at stations,” said former WAGA-TV reporter Doug Richards, who critiques local television news on the blog Live Apartment Fire (a wry reference to a commonly overplayed story). Most reporters, Richards said in an interview, pleaded for calm, urging motorists not to buy unneeded gas. But those pleas, Richards said, may have backfired.

“I’m reluctant to say TV helped contribute to the panic,” he said. “However, certainly a lot of those consumers of gasoline watched TV and put two and two together” and headed out to buy gas. The shortage was a natural television story, Richards said, combining human drama – angry, anxious motorists – with strong visuals of cars lined up for gas.

Public reaction to the shortage, as framed by the media, made the situation - at the very least - much worse than it needed to be. Rather than being resilient - rather than bouncing back - the public reaction became a heavy drag on the system.

Visual evidence - on television and from seeing long-lines - overcame any words of reassurance, no matter how credible. The immediate visual evidence was especially powerful because very little had been done to prepare either the physical supply chain or the public psyche for a predictable fuel shortage.

Writing in the Australian Journal of Emergency Management (pdf) Brigit Macquire and Patrick Hagan argue that, "research into human reactions to disaster has overwhelmingly recognised that resilience in response to disaster is much more common than suggested by the media, and “mass trauma may not necessarily be a given” (Almedom, 2005, p. 254). In the immediate aftermath of a disaster, communities tend to come together, with more prosocial behaviour being demonstrated by most individuals (Auf der Heide, 2004; Barsky, Trainor, & Torres, 2006). To be effective, emergency management plans need to build on the capacities arising from naturally emergent social resilience."

But fundamental to effective resilience is accurate information communicated effectively and credibly. Too often in trying to avoid - unlikely - social panic leaders can inadvertently prompt the public to counter-productive behavior by failing to communicate in a way that reinforces resilience. Many elected leaders are especially reluctant to discuss catastrophic possibilities and as a result fail to cultivate the psychological readiness that is essential to social resilience.

Writing in Foreign Affairs (and other publications), Stephen Flynn has suggested four keys to reinforcing resilience:

First, there is robustness, the ability to keep operating or to stay standing in the face of disaster. In some cases, it translates into designing structures or systems (such as buildings and bridges) strong enough to take a foreseeable punch. In others (such as developing transportation, energy, and communications networks), robustness requires devising substitutable or redundant systems that can be brought to bear should something important break or stop working. Robustness also entails investing in and maintaining elements of critical infrastructure, such as dams and levees, so that they can withstand low-probability but high-consequence events.

Second is resourcefulness, which involves skillfully managing a disaster once it unfolds. It includes identifying options, prioritizing what should be done both to control damage and to begin mitigating it, and communicating decisions to the people who will implement them. Resourcefulness depends primarily on people, not technology...

The third element of resilience is rapid recovery, which is the capacity to get things back to normal as quickly as possible after a disaster. Carefully drafted contingency plans, competent emergency operations, and the means to get the right people and resources to the right places are crucial...

Finally, resilience means having the means to absorb the new lessons that can be drawn from a catastrophe.

The Southeastern fuel shortage has been less than a catastrophe, but it offers important lessons-to-be-learned. We depend on robust and resourceful citizens, as well as robust and resourceful systems. Fundamental to real resilience is public understanding. Resilience is an outcome of the public being meaningfully aware of risks and being prepared psychologically and practically to engage the risks.

September 29 - October 4, 2008

2008-09-30T05:47:00.000-07:00

New FBI Rules

Friday, October 3 - According to the New York Times, "The Justice Department finalized on Friday an overhaul of rules that will give the Federal Bureau of Investigation freer rein to begin investigations into the possibility of terrorism, even without evidence of wrongdoing."

Broad Range of Critical Professions in a Pandemic

Friday, October 3 - Not only are doctors, nurses, and firefighters essential during a severe pandemic influenza outbreak. So, too, are truck drivers, communications personnel, and utility workers," according to a new study.

Advancing Resilience

Thursday, October 2 - Yesterday a Washington D.C. conference of policymakers advanced key principles and processes for national resilience, according to Government Executive. The Reform Institute released a report (pdf) on the issue. Homeland Security Watch gives further context.

California Wildfire Grows

Wednesday, October 1 - A wildfire in southern Monterey County doubled in size Monday. An early start of the fire season nearly depleted State and federal firefighting budgets. "An additional $910 million in emergency federal funding for fighting wildfires has been approved by Congress and sent to the President," according to KCAL.

Mall Plot Earns 30 year Sentence

Wednesday, October 1 - The lone conspirator in a possible terrorist attack on a Rockford, Illinois shopping mall was sentenced yesterday.

"Threat to Pakistan's very existence"

Tuesday, September 30 - Intense fighting is reported in Northwest Pakistan between government forces and militants associated with the Taliban and al Qaeda. According to the Financial Times, "Pakistani troops have destroyed a Taliban stronghold on the Afghan border and unearthed a network of underground bunkers used for planning and training hardcore militants." This is part of month-long government offensive which has displaced at least 300,000 Pakistanis. Many expect a terrorist response with new attacks on Pakistani cities. Yesterday General David Petraeus the new US commander for operations in the Middle East and South Asia said, "This is a threat to Pakistan's very existence and it is one with which they must deal."

Recognizing Risky Relationships

2008-09-27T03:01:00.001-07:00

Smoke from the Stevenson Ranch wildfire obscures the sun while water and power worker checks the power lines after a Santa Ana wind driven wildfire raced through the area in Valencia, Calif., north of Los Angeles, Monday, October 22, 2007. (Photograph by Kevork Djansezian, Associated Press)

Risk calculation often considers three broad types of threat: natural, accidental, and intentional. Understanding how these different threat-types interact with vulnerability is one way to focus risk management decisions. Should a fourth type - relational - be added to our mental toolbox?

When the levees failed following Katrina was it an accident? If California wildfires are ignited by badly maintained utility lines is that an accident? Osama bin-Laden said he did not expect the World Trade Center towers to collapse. Does absence of specific intention or expectation have a meaningful impact on how we practice risk management?

There can be relationships - unexpected and, perhaps, unforeseeable - between natural and/or accidental threats and human choice (quite separate from human intention).

In a report (pdf) released in early September the California Public Utilities Commission found that three San Diego County wildfires were caused by badly maintained overhead lines.

According to this report, "On October 22, 2007, a Cox Communications (Cox) lashing wire made contact with a San Diego Gas and Electric Company (SDG&E) 12 kV overhead conductor between SDG&E poles P196387 and P196394 in San Pasqual Valley. The July 9, 2008 California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s (CalFire) report on the fires (CalFire Report) states that the Guejito Fire started when these energized power lines and this Cox lashing wire came in contact with each other. This fire has been variously referred to as: the Pasqual Fire, the San Pasqual Fire, and the Guejito Fire. This fire will hereinafter be referred to as the Guejito Fire. The Consumer Protection and Safety Division (CPSD) of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) investigated this incident. Based upon all the evidence made available to it, it is CPSD’s opinion that Cox was in violation of CPUC General Order (GO) 95, Rules 31.1 and 31.2 at the time of the incident. GO 95, Rule 31.1 requires a utility’s facilities to be designed, constructed, and maintained, in order to enable safe, proper and adequate service, and Rule 31.2 requires a utility to inspect facilities frequently and thoroughly in order to ensure that they are in good condition."

The two regulated companies have vigorously disagreed with the report's findings. Cox Communications specifically argues, "“The evidence indicates that our line was fully intact prior to the extreme Santa Ana winds, which caused S.D.G. & E.’s lines and our lines to come into contact." Which raises a question as to the foreseeability of the Santa Ana winds.

Legal principles distinguish between outcomes that are intentional, unintentional, and the result of negligence. Under the law an accident is an unintentional mishap, the result of chance (accident is derived from the Latin for chance) and beyond foreseeing. Negligence is usually established by making a case that an unintended injury was reasonably foreseeable.

In Anglo-American law the issue is often determined by defining the scope for a "duty of care." Those accused in the Southern California wildfires argue that but for fierce winds, there would have been no contact of their lines and they cannot be held responsible for unforeseeably fierce winds. But it might be asked, given seasonal recurrence of the Santa Ana winds was such an outcome outside reasonable anticipation? Even if the probability of such winds or such harm was low, was it incumbent on some party to give serious consideration to such possibilities.

In discussing his decision in United States v Carroll Towing Company (1947) Judge Learned Hand offered the following rule for establishing duty of care:

Since there are occasions when every vessel will break from her moorings, and since, if she does, she becomes a menace to those about her; the owner’s duty, as in other similar situations, to provide against resulting injuries is a function of three variables: (1) The probability that she will break away; (2) the gravity of the resulting injury, if she does; (3) the burden of adequate precautions. Possibly it serves to bring this notion into relief to state it in algebraic terms: if the probability be called P; the injury, L; and the burden, B; liability depends upon whether B is less than L multiplied by P: i.e., whether B <>

The risk manager - especially if he or she is engaged in protecting the public-at-large - must be less concerned with the burden and more concerned with the potential injury. It is in the self-interest of many to underestimate both injury and probability.

The risk manager - as public servant - must be willing and able to consider catastrophic potential. Such catastrophic potential will often have lesser probabilities. But a lesser probability cannot be simply dismissed. The risk manager must inquire into the possible relationship between human choice and chance events. Has human choice - without intention - substantially increased potental injury or probability.

In other words is the chance of catastrophic injury - even if "reasonably" improbable - sufficient to undertake a precautionary burden?

The 9/11 Commission argued that a major contribution to the attackers' success was a "failure of imagination" by those charged to consider the injury and probability of the foreseen attack. The same critique can often be applied to probability and injury resulting from natural and accidental threats.

(Recent developments in financial risk management emphasize the importance of recognizing often obscured relational threats. See the New York Times.)

September 22 - 27, 2008

2008-09-22T11:15:00.000-07:00

Pirates Seize Weapons Ship

Saturday, September 27 - Somali Pirates have taken a Ukranian cargo ship bound for Kenya with a large cache of military supplies. On Sunday morning the BBC reported the destoyer USS Howard steaming out of Djibouti has made visual contact with the cargo ship. A Russian naval vessel is also reported on its way.

Damascus Bombing

Saturday, September 27 - A car bomb killed 17 and injured many more in a suburb of the Syrian capital of Damascus.

Gulf Coast Recovering

Friday, September 26 - Nearly two weeks after Ike, the Texas and Louisiana coasts are beginning to come to grips with their new reality. Over a half million Houston area residents remain without electric power. The utility expects to have main powerlines restored by this Sunday but is not promising when the remaining 20 percent plus of its customers will be able to turn on their lights. At least 75 percent of Galveston homes are uninhabitable. Eleven of 15 oil refineries have returned to operation, but refinery utilization rates are at the lowest level in over 40 years. The US Department of Energy suggests the nation is still "a few weeks" away from restoring usual gasoline production capacity. According to Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu, "Texas estimates its costs from Ike will total $27 billion to $35 billion. Louisiana's costs are expected to be $30 billion to $40 billion." Wednesday the US Congress passed an omnibus funding measure that includes some recovery support.

Kyle Targets New England and Maritimes

Friday, September 26 - Tropical Storm Kyle is expected to come ashore this weekend. According to the National Hurricane Center:

THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE REACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF GULFSTREAM...THE FASTFORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.

Germans Arrest Two Suspected Terrorists

Friday, September 26 - Two Somali nationals were arrested at Frankfurt airport. According to some reports both had recently completed training in the Pakistani border region. Some reports indicate the suspects were on the first-leg of a return trip to Pakistan.

Monsoon Flooding Continues

Photo by Amit Dave, Reuters
Friday, September 26 - Heavy rain continues to fall across Northern India as the death-toll from flooding exceeds 2400 with tens of thousands displaced.

Varied Signals, Uncertain Outcomes

Thursday, September 25 - The Pakistani Army claims success in a major offensive, killing over 1000 insurgents, including five top al Qaeda and Taliban leaders. Shots were exchanged between US and Pakistani forces along the border region with Afghanistan. In New York the President of Pakistan has condemned US operations into Pakistan, but has also excused the most recent report of a border incursion. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff is pushing for a sustained commitment of US support for Pakistan, telling Reuters, "Clearly, Americans are not very popular in Pakistan. Many Pakistanis see it as America's war, not their war. And I understand all that ... I'm not trying to fan those flames." British Airways has discontinued flights into Pakistan and the Islamabad airport has been essentially shut-down by threats of an attack. More suicide attacks were reported in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and a bombing derailed a train killing a woman and three children. The United Nations is considering removal of non-essential staff from Pakistan. In a joint Wall Street Journal piece the Afghan and Pakistani UN ambassadors assure readers, "President Hamid Karzai and the new democratically elected president of Pakistan, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, are firmly committed to fighting terrorism in a united front, as common allies of the United States and victims of terrorism."

Bush-Zardari Meeting

Wednesday, September 24 - Very little substance has been reported emerging from yesterday's morning meeting at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel between Presidents Bush and Zardari. A subsequent meeting between Pakistan's President and President Karzai of Afghanistan seems to have had more concrete outcomes. Raising particular hopes was the announcement that the Turkish President would host a trilateral meeting involving both Afghanistan and Pakistan focused on greater military cooperation against terrorists operating along their shared border.

Basque Bombings and Arrests

Wednesday, September 24 - The third ETA bombing in 24 hours claimed its first victim on Monday. Today French police made at least 12 related arrests.

Galveston Allowing Residents to Return

Tuesday, September 23 - On Wednesday - eleven days after Hurricane Ike hit the city - Galveston officials will allow residents to return to the barrier island, according to the Houston Chronicle.

Low Pressure Likely to Intensify

Tuesday, September 23 - A broad area of low pressure currently centered between South America and Hispaniola is predicted to strengthen as it moves slowly North or Northwest according to the National Hurricane Center.

Schools Threatened

Tuesday, September 23 - A Finnish student killed ten others and himself in a shooting spree at a vocational school in Kauhajoki. Yesterday Polk Community College in Winter Haven, Florida locked down its campuses in response to a threat to shoot a person at the college. The suspect was arrested.

New York on High-Security

Monday, September 22 - Most of the East Side of Mid-town Manhattan will be shut down for the opening of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. According to WNBC, "First Avenue and numerous streets near the U.N will be closed. The NYPD said there will also be closures around the Waldorf Astoria and other hotels where leaders are staying... Officials have said while there is some Internet chatter warning of threats to New York, none is considered credible or specific at this time."

Marriott Bomb's Composition Claimed

Monday, September 22 - A senior official with Pakistan's Home Ministry told James Rupert that the truck bomb involved at least 1300 pounds of "high-grade TNT, trinitrotoluene, or RDX, cyclotrimethylene-trinitramine, a military explosive... as well as mortar bombs, artillery shells and an incendiary aluminum powder. He described the bomb as the biggest ever used in a terrorist attack in Pakistan."

Pakistani Leaders Assert They were Target

Monday, September 22 - Some Pakistani officials claim the government leaders were the target of the Saturday night bombing of the Marriott Hotel. AFP reports, "Pakistan's top leaders were due to have dinner at Islamabad's Marriott hotel on the night it was bombed but cheated death after switching venue at the last minute, a senior official said Monday. The hotel however denied the claim, made by interior ministry chief Rehman Malik, that President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and military top brass had narrowly escaped Saturday's devastating attack."

Tough Context for US Pakistan Meeting

2008-09-20T01:15:00.000-07:00

Islamabad Marriott, September 20, Photograph by BK Bangash/Associated Press

The new President of Pakistan and the outgoing President of the United States will meet on Tuesday in New York. Preparations for the meeting included the visit last week to Islamabad by Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen.

The Presidents' meeting has also been preceded by increasing US attacks on terrorist targets inside Pakistan. On September 17 - during Admiral Mullen's visit - missiles from a US drone hit a suspected terrorist hideout. This came on the heels of the first - reported - ground attack by US forces inside Pakistan on September 3. According to media reports, President Bush has authorized US operations inside Pakistan without Pakistani pre-approval. Whether or not the recent US attacks received Pakistani approval, they have created a political furor. (Overview from Time Magazine.)

Since their 2001 ouster in Afghanistan both the Taliban and al Qaeda have established safe havens inside Pakistan, especially in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). These safe havens are used to supply and train for attacks inside Afghanistan and elsewhere. In the last two weeks German police have made a series of arrests involving terrorist suspects who received training in Pakistan in 2006 and 2007.

In a videotape released on September 8 the Taliban and al Qaeda promised, "more major, large-scale attacks like the Kandahar prison operation, the Nuristan raid, the Sarobi ambush and Khost airport operation in which approximately 50 Americans and 100 apostates were killed and four helicopters were hit and destroyed." Over the last three months, insurgents have inflicted the highest casualty tolls on western forces since the Afghan war began nearly seven years ago. (See related story.)

US Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, has defended cross-border operations into Pakistan as a military necessity. The United States has pressed Pakistan for more aggressive action against the terrorist hideouts along the mountainous Afghan-Pakistan border. Saturday the Pakistan military claimed progress in a month-long offensive in the Bajaur area of the FATA.

But many are skeptical. On Saturday Nasim Zehra wrote in the Khaleej Times (Dubai, UAE), "The Taliban and the al Qaeda are now relatively more effective because they have strong intelligence, the locals have virtually minimal protection by the State, the Pakistan Army has not been successful in blocking the expansion and the power of these groups... What is now being achieved through the Pakistan Army operations in Bajaur? Reportedly minimal. Will the Pakistan Army win against the militants? It appears that the army operations have not succeeded to substantively weaken the Taliban and the al Qaeda."

Saturday morning a suicide bomber struck a Pakistani army convoy in North Waziristan killing at least ten soldiers. According to some reports there have been at least 900 Pakistani army casualties in counterterrorism operations since 2006.

On Saturday afternoon Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari gave a wide-ranging speech to Parliament insisting, "We will not tolerate the violation of our sovereignty and territorial integrity by any power in the name of combating terrorism."

But President Zardari gave much more attention to the internal challenge of terrorism. "We must root out terrorism and extremism wherever and whenever they may rear their ugly heads. Reforming the tribal areas and bringing them into the mainstream of national life can no longer be delayed. They must be treated at par with the rest of their Pakistani brethren... Pakistan is at a critical security juncture today. In order to meet the challenge posed by the extremist and terrorist elements in the Tribal Areas and the adjoining regions, the Government has devised a comprehensive three-pronged strategy. First, to make peace with those who are willing to keep the peace and renounce violence; Second, to invest in the development and social uplift of the local people and Third, to use force only as a last resort against those who refuse to surrender their arms, take the law into their hands, challenge the writ of the Government and attack security forces."

Will this strategy be enough? For President Bush? For reducing terrorist operations in Afghanistan? For curtailing terrorist training targeted at Europe, the US, and elsewhere? For Zardari's survival? For Pakistan's survival?

Only a few hours after President Zardari's speech the Pakistani capital was shaken by the explosion of a massive vehicle bomb at the Marriott Hotel. (Published 1300 US Eastern, Saturday, September 20)

Follow-on coverage: Over 50 Killed, Pakistan's 9/11, Al Qaeda Suspected, Warning to US-PAK Coop, Zardari vows to Fight, Pakistani President Departs for New York.

September 15-20, 2008

2008-09-16T02:39:00.000-07:00

India to Strengthen Counterterrorism Efforts

Friday, September 19 - In the aftermath of recent bombings the New Delhi government will "put in place a dedicated mechanism for research and analysis in areas of technology and counterterrorism," Madhukar Gupta, India's top-most home ministry official told Reuters. The government proposals respond to a clear problem and increasing criticism, but many are skeptical regarding the effectiveness of any such effort.

Quiet on the Western and Eastern Fronts

Friday, September 19 - After a ferocious start to the wildfire and hurricane seasons, mid-September has been largely quiet. The Doubleday fire in Southern Oregon is still not contained. But elsewhere wildfire threats are modest. A low-intensity tropical wave is currently over the Lesser Antilles, but is unlikely to strengthen. No organized systems are presenting over the Eastern Atlantic.

Another Milk Contamination Death

Thursday, September 18 - A fourth baby has died - and thousands have been sickened - as a result of tainted milk in China. "Powdered baby milk from the mainland's two biggest dairy companies, along with 20 others, were found to have been deliberately contaminated with the industrial chemical melamine, which is used in plastics and glue production. Apart from the three fatalities, (now four) 6,244 babies have fallen ill, including 158 in hospital with acute kidney problems, the mainland's health minister, Chen Zhu, said." according to the Hong Kong Standard.

US Embassy in Yemen Attacked

Wednesday, September 17 - According to several media sources the US embassy in the capital "was hit by a car bombing and rocket fire on Wednesday sparking a series of explosions around the heavily fortified compound." AFP, al bawaba, BBC

Hurricane Recovery Struggles

Wednesday, September 17 - Water, food, electricity and other essentials are in short supply for many victims of Hurricane Ike. According to CNN, "FEMA has established at least 60 distribution sites across the region to give away water, ice and food. There are long waiting line at those stations crowded with thousands of people." Over 1.4 million Texans remain without electricity. According to the Houston Chronicle roughly 50-75 percent may be back online next Tuesday. The double punch of Gustav and Ike caused record setting power outages in Louisiana according to the Times-Picayune. Over 300,000 customers in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky also remain in the dark for the fifth day. According to the Cincinatti Enquirer the local utility expects to have about 85 percent of these customers back online by tonight.

Mexican Celebrations Bombed

Wednesday, September 17 - According to the Chicago Tribune, "fragmentation grenades, ripped through crowds in Morelia, the capital of the western state of Michoacan, late Monday."

Midwest Flooding

Tuesday, September 16 - The remnants of Hurricane Ike joining with an existing low caused significant flooding and other problems across the the Great Lake States. A power blackout has entered its third day in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky.

Pakistan-US Confrontation?

Tuesday, September 16 - Media reports in Pakistan claim that "Two United States military helicopters turned back to Afghanistan from the border early on Monday after shots were fired from the ground, but there were conflicting accounts of the incident.Security officials and tribal elders said the threat of an incursion led Pakistani troops and tribesmen to fire." While the story is disputed it is getting extensive play in Middle East media and coincides with reports that "Corps commanders of Pakistan's 600,000-strong army issued orders to retaliate against "invading" US forces that enter the country to attack militant targets."

Learning Recovery Lessons

2008-09-13T06:01:00.000-07:00

Ike's aftermath, Seawall Boulevard, Galveston. Photograph by Johnny Hanson (Houston Chronicle and AP)

As the Texas Gulf Coast moves from response to recovery, the experience of others confirms that results depend a great deal on political will. New York, New Orleans, and Haiti are each in the midst of recovery efforts. Despite the very different locales, the lessons-learned are similar.

New York mayor Michael Bloomberg wrote in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, , "Progress on the redevelopment of the World Trade Center has been frustratingly slow, owing in large part to a multilayered governance structure that has undermined accountability from the get-go." Early responses suggest the mayor's proposal to reduce layers is unlikely to be quickly adopted.

In a mostly positive June report on Post-Katrina rebuilding US News and World Report nonetheless noted that the New Orleans "Office of Recovery and Development Administration has largely blamed the slow start on funding delays, mostly from the federal government, while state and federal authorities blame local disorganization."

The Financial Services Roundtable (pdf) recovery report gives particular emphasis to the role of intergovernmental coordination. "One of the central lessons learned from Katrina is that multiple decisions prior to a mega-catastrophe and definitely in the aftermath (as well as some even more“routine” disasters) are required by all levels of government – local, state, and federal – since many decisions require the cooperation of all, as well as a means to resolve disputes where they arise. It is vital that these decisions be made expeditiously and that disputes be resolved quickly so that individuals waiting to return and businesses ready to reopen have sufficient certainty that they can make plans. The more rapidly all of this happens, the more quickly the economic and social recovery from any disaster will occur."

Over the last three weeks more than 500 have died in Haiti of storm-related disasters. On Monday, Time Magazine reported, "Haiti's political instability has imperiled efforts at disaster preparation... Two months ago the Family Early Warning Systems Network (composed of USAID, the European Union, FAO and the World Food Program) predicted that nearly half of Haiti's population — or some 4 million people — could face a food crisis by December. And that was before the deluge that flooded the country's breadbasket." Some reports indicate the recent storms have left one million Haitians homeless.

In a Los Angeles Times Sunday op-ed Amy Wilentz comments, "the governments of Haiti, both the dictatorships and the democracies, have done almost nothing to stop deforestation or to protect Haitians from the next big storm. There is no enforced national policy concerning cutting down trees... There is no national or municipal evacuation plan or shelter system."

Jed Horne, New Orleans resident and author of Breach of Faith: Hurricane Katrina and the Near Death of a Great American City, helpfully reminds us that politics is not just for politicians. "At its most worthwhile and interesting New Orleans has become a laboratory for its own reinvention and perhaps the reinvention of other cities as well. We have made real strides in reshaping government, school system included. We have the opportunity, if we don't blow it, to get health care and public housing right. Our very travail has made New Orleans a magnet for people form all over the country with a sense of adventure and a will to make a difference." (For Horne's complete essay see the September Oxford American.)

While politics is often an easy target for cynics, these three recovery efforts underline what Vaclav Havel once said, "Genuine politics… is simply a matter of serving those around us: serving the community and serving those who will come after us. Its deepest roots are moral because it is a responsibility expressed through action, to and for the whole."

September 8 -13, 2008

2008-09-09T02:28:00.000-07:00

Delhi Markets Bombed

Saturday, September 13 - A series of five bomb blasts hit Delhi today. In an Email to Indian police responsibility was claimed by a group calling itself the Indian Mujahideen.

Hurricane Hammers Houston

Saturday, September 13 - Ike made landfall early this morning. The Houston Chronicle is maintaining a blow-by-blow blog at http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/

Different Strategies to Improve Intelligence

Saturday, September 13 - On Friday the FBI moved ahead with new guidance for counter-terror investigations. According to the Wall Street Journal, "The guidelines allow FBI agents to open "threat assessments," which are lower-level investigations that are based only on having a "purpose," and not necessarily any factual reason to do so. In these investigations, agents would be able to conduct "pretext interviews," without identifying themselves as FBI agents. The rules also loosen restrictions on agents being able to use physical surveillance, solicit new informants or assign informants to seek information without high-level approval.

Also on Friday the House Homeland Security Committee released a Staff Report that concluded current federal efforts to share intelligence with State and local partners, "has primarily been focused on providing security clearances to an ever-increasing number of law enforcement personnel and private sector representatives to assure access to classified homeland security information. This approach, all too often, prevents information from being shared with the cops on the beat – the people best-positioned to detect suspicious activities or uncover a terrorist cell.

Ike Strengthens before Strike

Friday, September 12 - Hurricane Ike is expected to make landfall by tomorrow morning. According to the National Hurricane Center:

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE... WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE A LONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

Terrorism Training Banned

Friday, September 12 - YouTube has banned postings that advocate terrorism or incite violence. The new guidelines state, "While it might not seem fair to say you can’t show something because of what viewers theoretically might do in response, we draw the line at content that’s intended to incite violence or encourage dangerous, illegal activities that have an inherent risk of serious physical harm or death. This means not posting videos on things like instructional bomb making, ninja assassin training, sniper attacks, videos that train terrorists, or tips on illegal street racing. Any depictions like these should be educational or documentary and shouldn’t be designed to help or encourage others to imitate them." Some are skeptical, see Wired.

Power Grid Vulnerable

Friday, September 12 - According to Congress Daily, "During a hearing before the Energy and Commerce Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee, several witnesses and lawmakers argued that the threat to the nation's power grid from cyberattacks is real and urged lawmakers to enact legislation to give FERC additional powers to order utilities to take the necessary steps to address the problem."

Afghan/Pakistan Border Heats Up

Thursday, September 11 - Saeed Shah writes in the Globe and Mail that al-Qaeda and "its local partners have destabilized nuclear-armed Pakistan, and largely taken over its northwest fringe. Afghanistan has been sent into a tailspin of violence. While al-Qaeda was beaten back in Iraq... its influence is now entrenched in Pakistan and Afghanistan, from where it is feared that terror strikes against the West are still being planned." Yesterday the Pakistani Army Chief criticized US and NATO cross-border operations from Afghanistan. This morning the New York Times reports, "President Bush secretly approved orders in July that for the first time allow American Special Operations forces to carry out ground assaults inside Pakistan without the prior approval of the Pakistani government..."

Terrorism Trails Economy, Energy and More

Thursday, September 11 - On the seventh anniversary of 9/11,Terrorism is no longer a major issue for most Americans according to recent polls. Some suggest this is because the battle against terrorism is being won. According to the Human Security Brief, there has been "a sharp net decline in the incidence of terrorist violence around the world."

Earthquakes in South and East Asia

Thursday, September 11 - Two nearly simultaneous earthquakes shook the Pacific "ring of fire" earlier today. Another strong earthquake caused damage and at least one death in southern Iran and the Persian Gulf on Wednesday.

Earth is not Destroyed

Wednesday, September 10 - Early today the Large Hadron Collider produced its first energy beam. In his book Catastrophe: Risk and Response, Richard Posner explained that some are worried about the LHC producing a strangelet disaster. This would consist of a shower of quarks that could "convert anything else encountered into a strange new form of matter." A second beam will be spawned later today.

African Coast Clears

Wednesday, September 10 - After two very active weeks, Hurricane Ike remains the only tropical threat to the Eastern and Southern United States. There are currently no organized lows off West Africa. This suggests five days or more when an Atlantic hurricane is unlikely.

Report Highlights WMD Threat

Tuesday, September 9 - The Partnership for a Secure America will release a report tomorrow highlighting US vulnerability to a catastrophic attack using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons of mass destruction. UPDATE: Access the full report here.

Recovery Underway in Haiti, Cuba, and on the Gulf

Tuesday, September 9 - Reeling from four major storms in three weeks Haiti is "hell on earth," according to a United Nations official. Hurricane Ike strafed much of Cuba and will probably hit again before heading into the Gulf. In the US the gulf coast continues to recover from Gustav as it appears Ike may target Texas and Mexico. Late Monday New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said, "It would be difficult to get people to move again for Ike after so many evacuated for Gustav. People are so weary and so financially tapped." Over 137,000 Southern Louisiana residents remain without electricity, according to CNN.

UK Convicts Three Terrorists

Tuesday, September 9 - On Monday a British court convicted three of eight arrested in 2006 for plotting to bomb several transatlantic airliners. The Daily Telegraph reports police believe several involved in the plot are still at-large.

Same Ends Different Means

2008-09-06T05:19:00.000-07:00

Barring some horrible attack, terrorism will not compete with the economy, energy, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as top-tier issues in this year's Presidential election. Limited public and media attention translates into less attention by the candidates. But some policy differences are beginning to emerge.

In his acceptance speech Barack Obama said, "I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al-Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and curb Russian aggression. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future."

One week later John McCain said, "We have dealt a serious blow to al-Qaida in recent years. But they are not defeated, and they'll strike us again if they can. Iran remains the chief state sponsor of terrorism and on the path to acquiring nuclear weapons. Russia's leaders, rich with oil wealth and corrupt with power, have rejected democratic ideals and the obligations of a responsible power... We face many threats in this dangerous world, but I'm not afraid of them. I'm prepared for them. I know how the military works, what it can do, what it can do better, and what it should not do. I know how the world works. I know the good and the evil in it. I know how to work with leaders who share our dreams of a freer, safer and more prosperous world, and how to stand up to those who don't."

Remarkably similar targets and tools. The differences in approach are subtle, but potentially important.

The party platforms are regularly dismissed as having no practical impact. But they tend to reflect the priorities and prejudices of the next President's political base. Both party platforms give attention to a similar line-up of threats: nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism, bio-terrorism and cyber-terrorism. Each of the party platforms urge greater investment in and productivity from intelligence gathering and sharing. Both bow in appreciation to first responders.

The Republican Party platform (pdf) includes a preface to its section on Defending Our Nation, "The waging of war — and the achieving of peace — should never be micromanaged in a party platform, or on the floor of the Senate and House of Representatives for that matter. In dealing with present conflicts and future crises, our next president must preserve all options. It would be presumptuous to specify them in advance and foolhardy to rule out any action deemed necessary for our security."

The Democratic Party platform includes a section entitled, Reclaiming our Constitution and our Liberties. It says in part, "As we combat terrorism, we must not sacrifice the American values we are fighting to protect. In recent years, we’ve seen an Administration put forward a false choice between the liberties we cherish and the security we demand. The Democratic Party rejects this dichotomy. We will restore our constitutional traditions, and recover our nation’s founding commitment to liberty under law... (several critiques of recent executive branch action are then listed.) We reject sweeping claims of “inherent” presidential power... We believe that our Constitution, our courts, our institutions, and our traditions work."

The Founders' clearly intended to give the Executive significant war-time powers. They did not, however, anticipate the extended wars of the 20th and, apparently, 21st Centuries. One party suggests that the Executive should be able to deploy "any action deemed necessary for our security." The other party argues that even (especially?) in waging war the Executive's power must be constrained.

This Thursday, September 11, Senators Obama and McCain will stand together where evil had its way. They agree on the profound challenge of terrorism. Both claim they aim to protect our hard-won liberties. To a remarkable degree they agree on how the current struggle should be concluded. But the two men and their parties reflect different attitudes regarding the means to be used.

It will be the voters who determine which means are best suited to preserve for ourselves and to our posterity the blessings of liberty. The choice is not clear and easy. If anyone of either party thinks it is, they should think again. But if the people choose badly the loss of liberty - more likely through slow erosion than sudden flood - will be difficult to redeem. As with so many of the risks considered here in prior weeks, the calculus of threat, vulnerability, and consquence is difficult.

Abraham Lincoln, the lawyer who prosecuted America's most awful conflict, knew something of evil and waging war. He made tough decisions that some have argued were beyond his Constitutional authority. But with the exception of James Madison no other President has left us so many love letters to the Constitution. President Lincoln predicted, "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter, and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves."

September 1 - 5, 2008

2008-09-02T03:26:00.000-07:00

Emergency Enters Seventh Year

Friday, September 5 - According to Homeland Security Watch and the White House President Bush has renewed the Emergency Declaration made in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. HLSWatch includes a summary of a Congressional Research Office study of the declaration's implications.

Pakistan Protests Ground Attack

Friday, September 5 - Pakistan alleges a Wednesday attack by US forces inside its borders. According to the BBC, "US-led and Nato forces have said they have no reports of any troop incursion. But off the record, US military sources confirm that US commandoes carried out Wednesday's raid against a suspected al-Qaeda target - and say it could signal a tougher approach to cross-border militancy.
Thursday's attack occurred in the village of Mohammad Khel near Miranshah in North Waziristan, local officials said."

Hanna Hits Haiti Hard

Friday, September 5 - At least 137 Haitians were killed in flooding caused by Hanna. The tropical storm is expected to hit the US mainland early Saturday morning. Hurricane Ike has weakened slightly but is predicted to intensify in the next 48 hours. UPDATE: Reuters reports that the Haitian death toll from Hanna is much higher.

Terrorism Charged at GOP Convention

Thursday, September 4 - According to the Los Angeles Times, "As clashes between police and protesters subsided outside the Republican National Convention on Wednesday, county prosecutors charged eight people with conspiring to cause a riot as part of a terrorist act. The eight suspects were arrested in connection with raids of homes in the Twin Cities that were conducted by the Ramsey County Sheriff's Department before the convention began.The charges are highly unusual because of the terrorism aspect. Ramsey County Atty. Susan Gaertner said she could recall no such case in her 24 years with the prosecutor's office."This was the most serious charge that we found that was supported by the evidence," she said. "The terrorism aspect is appropriate. This is not your average criminal charge, but this was not your average crime." If convicted, the suspects could each face up to five years in jail, a $10,000 fine, or both.

Gustav Success Breeds Concern

Thursday, September 4 - Several reports suggest the weakening of Gustav and the strains of evacuation may undermine public cooperation the next time an evacuation is ordered.

Hanna and Ike

Thursday, September 4 - Hanna has weakened to a tropical storm but is expected to reach hurricane strength before landfall early Saturday near the border of South Carolina and North Carolina. The more powerful Ike (currently a Category 4) remains Northeast of the Leeward Islands with Tropical Storm Josephine close behind.

Scientist Indicted for Resisting Detention

Wednesday, September 3 - According to the Washington Post, "Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani national who lived in the United States for 12 years, faces a possible life sentence for allegedly grabbing a U.S. Army officer's M-4 rifle while she was detained, shooting at another Army officer and threatening all seven members of an Army and FBI interview team before she was shot and subdued." Siddiqui, age 36, is a US educated scientist suspected of supporting Al Qaeda in planning mass casualty attacks. The arrest of Siddiqui in Afghanistan has prompted considerable sympathy in Pakistani media reports and some official circles.

Chemical Explosion Investigation Begins

Tuesday, September 2 - The Chemical Safety Board has begun its formal investigation of the August 28 explosion at the Bayer CropScience plant in Institute, West Virginia (see prior blogging). According to the Charlestown Gazette nearly an hour transpired before a shelter-in-place order was communicated to the public.

Hurricanes Line Up in Atlantic

Tuesday, September 2 - Gustav came ashore as a Category 2 storm, a reasonable mid-term test of strategic choices, but not yet an intimidating final exam. Hanna and two other likely hurricanes lined up behind it. More on Tropical Storm Ike is available from the National Hurricane Center

Gustav Tests Strategic Choices

2008-08-31T05:00:00.000-07:00

Click to view a larger image.

The third anniversary of Katrina arrived with Louisiana and Mississippi in Gustav's bulls-eye. Since 2005 over $50 billion in federal funding has been spent on recovery and preparedness. Unfortunately, later today the strategic choices made (and any failures to choose) will be tested.

Katrina was the test for lessons learned from Hurricane Betsy. On September 9, 1965 Betsy slammed into New Orleans with 110 mile per hour winds. Levees failed, the Lower 9th Ward flooded, and it took ten days for the waters to recede sufficiently for over 164,000 households to return. There were at least 75 deaths. Betsy was the first US hurricane to cause over a billion dollars in damages.

During the next four decades additional billions would be spent to prevent a recurrence of such a result. Katrina exposed an anemic return on investment. In recent days federal officials have been quick to promise a better result when Gustav makes landfall, projected for very early Tuesday. “What we’re seeing is a totally different response than what we had in Katrina,” said Federal Emergency Management Agency director David Paulison. (More from WDSU)

There is evidence that the combined local, state, and federal response will, in fact, be more substantial, more coordinated, and probably more effective than was the case with Katrina. (See the Nola Hurricane Center) What is not yet clear is the effectiveness of risk management and mitigation choices made over the last three years.

In June the General Accountability Office told the House Homeland Security Committee that "three key challenges exist to applying risk management to homeland security: improving risk communication, political obstacles to risk-based resource allocation, and a lack of strategic thinking about managing homeland security risks." All of these challenges have been evident in Post-Katrina decision-making.

By reading between the lines, the GAO report makes clear that the three challenges are tightly related. Strategic thinking, among other things, requires making tough choices regarding priorities. These priorities should guide risk-based resource allocation. But because the public has often not been involved in priority setting - or cannot reach agreement on priorities - it is not possible to implement a consistent risk-based approach. Resilience depends on public engagement.

GAO testimony noted, "Like the private sector, the government has to make choices about which risks to protect against—since it cannot protect the nation against all hazards. Unlike the private sector, the government has a wide responsibility for preparing for, responding to, and recovering from all acts of terrorism and natural or manmade disasters and is accountable to the public for the investment decisions it makes." Until the public is able and willing to support a strategic risk-based approach, the challenges are unlikely to be resolved.

The level of public involvement in hurricane preparedness since Katrina is a matter of controversy. The August update of the New Orleans Index tends to highlight how strong public involvement has been the foundation of progress. But Oxfam's report, Mirror on America: How the state of Gulf Coast recovery reflects on us all is critical of how the public has been excluded from key decisions.

Gustav and his aftermath may resolve the controvery over the next few days.

August 24-30, 2008

2008-08-26T05:34:00.000-07:00

Mexicans Rally against Crime

Saturday, August 30 -"Marches are being held throughout Mexico to protest against a wave of killings, kidnappings and shootouts sweeping the nation. The rallies are being held in each of Mexico's 32 states, with up to 500,000 people expected in the capital Mexico City alone, organisers say. Many protesters say the government is unable to curb the violence. Some 2,700 people have been killed in Mexico this year, most of them victims of drug-related attacks. (More from the BBC and a prior blog.)

Massive North Indian Floods

Saturday, August 30 - The worst floods in a half-century have displaced over 600,000 Indians and Nepalese. According to AFP the flooding Kosi River "is known as the River of Sorrows due to disastrous floods during the monsoon season."

WVA Chemical Plant Explosion

Saturday, August 30 - A Friday night explosion at an Institute, West Virginia chemical plant killed one and injured at least one other, according to the Associated Press. Major media is not yet reporting the connection, but this seems to be the same chemical plant involved in the August 11, 1985 accidental chemical release that resulted in the hospitalization of hundreds and a February 1990 release when seven were injured and 15,000 nearby residents were instructed to shelter-in-place. UPDATE: The Charlestown Gazette reported on the plant's safety history.

Katrina Anniversary and new Anxiety

Friday, August 29 - As New Orleans marks the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's landfall, Hurricane Gustav crosses Jamaica and heads into the warm waters of the Gulf. In the Atlantic the threat from Tropical Storm Hanna may be weakening according to the National Hurricane Center.

Gustav taking Aim

Thursday, August 28 - The National Hurricane Center has projected Gustav is likely to come ashore next Tuesday morning along the Gulf coast. Louisiana has declared a state of emergency and requested a pre-landfall federal disaster declaration. Tropical Depression 8 is heading toward the East Coast. UPDATE: Tropical Depression 8 has strengthened to Tropical Storm Hanna. Link for TD8 automatically updates information from the National Hurricane Center.

VHF Kills Three in Afghanistan

Wednesday, August 27 - An outbreak of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF) has killed at least three people in Herat Province, western Afghanistan, over the past three days, the Ministry of Public Health has said. The highly contagious disease was first reported on 26 August in Herat city where health officials confirmed 10 VHF suspected cases. More information is available from IRIN.

Gustav Strengthening and Moving West

Wednesday, August 27 - According to the National Hurricane Center Gustav is one of three or four potential troublemakers lining up across the Atlantic.

Al Qaeda target of Islamic Critics

Wednesday, August 27 - The BBC reports on "former allies of bin Laden, who are now working to turn Islamist sentiment against al-Qaeda, and examines how the war of ideas within the jihadi movement is becoming as important as the military frontline." The UPI reported a similar story on August 13.

Planetary Emergencies Identified

Tuesday, August 26 - The World Federation of Scientists meeting in Erice, Sicily has identified 15 Planetary Emergencies. According to the New York Times, "More than 120 scientists, engineers, analysts and economists from 30 countries were hunkered down here for the 40th annual conference on 'planetary emergencies.' The term was coined by Dr. Antonino Zichichi, a native son and a theoretical physicist who has made Erice a hub for experts to discuss persistent, and potentially catastrophic, global challenges."

New Hurricane(s)

Tuesday, August 26 - Early this morning the tropical wave first observed last Monday forming in the Eastern Atlantic became Hurricane Gustav. Predictions call for it to enter the Gulf of Mexico later this week as a Category 3 Hurricane. Another substantial low pressure area trails Gustav by a few hundred miles and a new tropical wave has formed over the Cape Verde Islands.

Terrorists Target Elections

2008-08-24T03:44:00.000-07:00

A video capture of a security image from the Madrid bombing on March 11, 2004. Distributed by El Pais.

This week the U.S. political season begins in earnest with the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Between now and the inauguration (January 20) the potential for terrorism will amplify every knock in the night.

Last week white powder threats were aimed at John McCain and Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Warnings were given regarding the possible use of "cloned" vehicles to penetrate convention security. In the background very real terrorist bombs exploded in Algeria and Pakistan and a misguided US air strike allegedly killed dozens of Afghan civilians.

Over the summer several Washington insiders - with means and reason to know - have talked of a terrorist attack on the US in the "next eight months." The absence of conditionals has been striking. All of these individuals have signaled an attack as a matter of when not if.

Similar concerns preceded the 2004 elections. There was even talk of postponing the vote. As it turned out the terrorist intervention was limited to a bin-Ladin speech emphasizing a voter's responsibility: "I tell you in truth, that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida. No. Your security is in your own hands."

The most compelling evidence that al-Qaeda may time its attacks to effect an election is the March 11, 2004 Madrid train bombings that some argue changed the results of the general election three days later.

In a recent Washington Post editorial Brookings Institution expert Bruce Riedel wrote, "If it happened in Spain, it can happen here. The Madrid bombings reveal the close attention al-Qaeda pays to the electoral cycles in Western democracies. Osama bin Laden, the perpetrator of one of the greatest mass murders in U.S. history, is certain to want to have his say in our elections this fall... The record is clear: Al-Qaeda has developed a predictable pattern of behavior over the decade since it declared war on the United States that provides important insights into what we can expect in the next six months. Brace yourselves."

American voters might be better braced by a fuller discussion of the issue prior to an attack or another last minute video. In an August 20 speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars President Bush emphasized a continuing Global War on Terror. In the most recent Washington Post-ABC poll of registered voters the economy was the only priority issue producing a double digit response. Terrorism was not perceived to be important enough for the pollsters to even list. Or maybe terrorism was covered by "an unexpected major crisis."

Unexpected?

August 18-22, 2008

2008-08-19T01:05:00.000-07:00

Fay Takes her Time

Friday, August 22 - Zig zagging across the Florida peninsula the tropical storm has brought over two feet of rain to the Atlantic coastline. A federal disaster declaration was released late Thursday. (More from the Sun-Sentinel and the AP) The tropical wave referenced on Monday is now roughly 600 miles East of the Leeward Islands. See orange circle numbered 1 above. But this new low has not - yet - consolidated to threaten more than thunderstorms. UPDATE: On Sunday, August 24 the National Hurricane Center advised that the new tropical wave, "does not have a well defined surface circulation at this time. However, upper level winds are somewhat favorable for development."

Pandemic Story Book Offered

Friday, August 22 - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released an online collection of stories as part of preparing the public for a new pandemic. According to the CDC, "The online storybook contains narratives from survivors, families, and friends who lived through the 1918 and 1957 pandemics." By considering past patterns it is hoped the public will be better prepared for another pandemic that many consider past due. The stories can be read - or new stories submitted - at http://www.pandemicflu.gov/storybook/stories/index.html.

Bering Glacier Melting Faster

Thursday, August 21 - A new technology for measuring glacial water melt indicates Alaska's Bering Glacier is melting at twice the rate that scientists believed. According to Robert Shuchman, co-director of the Michigan Tech Research Institute (MTRI), "The glacier is releasing approximately 30 cubic kilometers of water a year, more than twice the amount of water in the entire Colorado River." A UPI report is based on a public-private research program.

UK Case Exposes Internet Recruiting

Wednesday, August 20 - A trial that ended this week with the conviction of three British citizens offered details on how the Internet plays a crucial role in the recruitment, training, and management of new terrorists. It also suggested the readiness of terrorist networks to involve increasingly younger individuals. According to one report, "The role of the internet as a gateway to jihad certainly helps account for how individuals as young as Messrs Khan and Munshi – aged 12 and 15 respectively when their interest in jihad began – were able to become involved to begin with. Khan was the quintessential cyber-terrorist, inveigling recruits like Munshi who spent hours surfing jihadist websites."

New Low Forms off Africa

Tuesday, August 19 - At roughly 1700 (EDT) on August 18 Tropical Storm Fay made its US landfall at Key West. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo north to Fernandia Beach. A new low pressure area has formed in the Eastern Atlantic, similar to last Monday's tropical wave that spawned Fay. This system is moving west to west northwest at about 15 miles per hour. The satellite image above was captured at 0715 UTC/0315 EDT on August 19.

Illegal Migration Professionalized

2008-08-17T01:38:00.000-07:00

Sixty-one suspected illegal migrants were detained when US Border Patrol officers stopped this truck east of San Diego in May, 2008. Photograph by US Border Patrol, distributed by the Associated Press.

The governors of four US and six Mexican states reached agreement on several issues at a conference held August 13-16 in Hollywood. Joint declarations dealt with reducing wait times for those crossing the border, reducing cross-border gun smuggling and human trafficking, and improving cross-border cooperation in disaster response.

The governors' focus on human trafficking highlights an under-reported aspect of the US-Mexican border control challenge. Over a recent eight month period in Texas alone more than 400 tractor trailers were intercepted carrying undocumented migrants into the United States. In June Governor Rick Perry of Texas initiated a program called "Texas Hold 'Em" to crack down on truckers involved in organized trafficking rings.

According to a June 2008 report by the US Department of State, Mexico is among the top three nations of origin for human trafficking. "Organized criminal networks traffic women and girls from Mexico into the United States for commercial sexual exploitation. Mexican men and boys are trafficked from southern to northern Mexico for forced labor. Central Americans, especially Guatemalans, have been subjected to agricultural servitude and labor exploitation in southern Mexico. Mexican men, women, and boys are trafficked into the United States for forced labor, particularly in agriculture."

Mexican drug cartels are deeply involved in the cross-border transportation of persons. In addition to what is essentially a modern slave trade, drug cartels and other illicit organizations operate fee-based systems for illegally transporting groups of people across the US-Mexican border. Traditionally called coyotes the fee-for-service ranges from guiding migrants across the border to more expensive packages that deliver the migrant to a particular US destination.

According the the Mexican Migration Project the average cost of coyote services has steadily increased as border security has tightened. The typical fee has recently been estimated at $1500 per person or more. The increased fees and more sophisticated requirements have resulted in a professionalization of the coyote industry and increasing domination by the drug cartels.

As the border state governors emphasized, effectively targeting the drug cartels could produce a policy trifecta: reducing drug smuggling, human trafficking, and organized violence in both the United States and Mexico. But recent efforts to do exactly that demonstrate the ability of the cartels to resist and persist. (See Drug Related Violence Shakes Mexico)

August 10-15, 2008

2008-08-11T02:50:00.000-07:00

Wildfires burning... Money

Friday, August 15 - California has spent $285 million on fire suppression in the last six weeks. According to the San Jose Mercury News, "the biggest reason for the soaring costs is the massive size of recent wildfires." On Wednesday California Governor Arnold Schwarenegger wrote President Bush requesting more federal assistance under the Stafford Act. Barely half-way through the firefighting season the US Forest Service has already spent more than $1 billion of the $1.2 billion appropriated by Congress, according to the Oregonian. (Related, see Federal Disaster Role Grows)

Cyber Offense and Defense

Thursday, August 14 - Initial reports of a coordinated Russian cyberattack on Georgia have been disputed by some experts, according to CNET. While Georgian websites and other online services have been disrupted, the attacks are much less significant than the May 2007 disruption of the Estonian network. Last week at the annual Black Hat Security Conference the new director of the US National Cyber Security Center (NCSC), Rod Beckstrom, focused on how to set priorities for a cost-effective defensive network architecture. The NCSC began operations in March.

Teens Charged as Terrorists

Wednesday, August 13 - Giles County (Virginia) sheriff's deputies have arrested two teenagers for making terrorist threats. Investigators say the two 18-year olds left eight threatening playing cards at the Pearisburg Wal-Mart on Saturday, August 9th. The cards read “9 people will die” and “9 people will suffer” with the date 8-15-08. A ninth card was found on a car at a Dairy Queen on Sunday, August 10. Officers say the teens were caught up with “The Joker” from “The Dark Knight,” and that the idea may have stemmed from the movie. The teens are being held on terrorism-related charges at the New River Valley Regional Jail without bail. (Mollie Halpern, WSLS-TV). Giles County is adjacent to the county in which Virginia Tech is located. Application of terrorism statutes is expected to become more common as both police and prosecutors become more familiar with their provisions.

Proposed Change to 28 CFR, Part 23

Tuesday, August 12 - The Department of Justice has proposed a change in the core federal regulation managing the collection and dissemination of criminal intelligence. Among other changes the proposed rule would add, "domestic and international terrorism, including the material support thereof,'' to the examples of criminal activities for which for which federally funded criminal intelligence systems can be appropriately used. Public comment is invited until September 2. More information is available from the Office of Justice Programs. UPDATE: In the Saturday, August 16 Washington Post this issue was its lead frontpage story.

Mid-Atlantic Tropical Wave

Monday, August 11 - A broad area of low pressure has formed between North Africa and the Eastern Caribbean according to the National Hurricane Center. This creates favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical storms. Last week the Climate Prediction Center increased the number of storms and hurricanes expected for the current hurricane season. UPDATE: On Friday, August 15 tropical storm Fay formed over the central Caribbean.

Toronto Propane Explosion

Sunday, August 10 - A massive explosion at a northwest Toronto propane supplier resulted in the evacuation of thousands and shut down Canada's busiest highway. More from the Globe and Mail. UPDATE: As of Friday, August 15 the cause of the explosion had not been determined. The financial, political, and other consequences of the blast were still emerging.

Risks Revealed

2008-08-10T02:27:00.000-07:00

Above is a visualization of relative risk from the Risk Register. The Cabinet Office cautions, "Due to the nature of the risks contained within each grouping, it is not possible to represent an exact comparison but only to give an idea of the position of each group of risks relative to others, in terms of likelihood and impact."

On August 8 the British government made public for the first time its Risk Register. Most media reports focused on the relative weight given the Pandemic threat.

In its headline, the Times offered, "Flu pandemic beats terrorism and flood in official table of reasons to be fearful." The Scotsman explained, "A flu pandemic is deemed to be likely to impact on the greatest number of people, with half the population likely to become infected and leaving between 50,000 and 750,000 dead."

Given less media attention was the process of generating the Risk Register and the decision to make public its conclusions.

On March 19, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said, "we will openly publish for the first time a national register of risks - information that was previously held confidentially within Government - so the British public can see at first hand the challenges we face and the levels of threat we have assessed." (Prime Minister's Office)

The United Kingdom's Cabinet Office has made the Risk Register and related materials available on its website.

To reach its conclusions the UK's National Risk Assessment process gives attention to three sources of harm:

Natural events (hazards)
Potential accidents (accidents)
Malicious attacks (threats)

Each potential harm is assessed for likelihood and impact. Likelihood is determined using historical, statistical, and expert polling projected five years into the future. The British apply impact in a manner similar to the American use of consequence. Impact takes account of:

Number of fatalities
Human illness or injury
Social disruption
Economic damage
Psychological response

The United Kingdom's National Risk Assessment process is related to the generation of Community Risk Registers by localities across Britain. More information on how the British advance their emergency preparedness goals is available at UK Resilience.

Policing and Politics Pushed for Counter-Terrorism

2008-08-03T05:46:00.000-07:00

Multiple terrorist bombings rocked India, Turkey and Iraq last week. Above is a photograph of the aftermath of a July 27 bombing in Ahmadabad, India. (AP Photo/Ajit Solanki)

A preview of the new National Defense Strategy leaked last week (purposefully?) identifies terrorism as the principal threat to the United States:

For the foreseeable future, (the strategic) environment will be defined by a global struggle against a violent extremist ideology that seeks to overturn the international state system. Beyond this transnational struggle, we face other threats, including a variety of irregular challenges, the quest by rogue states for nuclear weapons, and the rising military power of other states. These are long-term challenges. Success in dealing with them will require the orchestration of national and international power over years or decades to come.

The NDS preview concludes, "... winning the Long War against violent extremist movements will be the central objective of the U.S. We must defeat violent extremism as a threat to our way of life as a free and open society and foster an environment inhospitable to violent extremists and all those who support them."

In another report released last week a RAND study, conducted in cooperation with the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, focuses on "how terrorist groups end" - whether in defeat or withering away. The study examined the experience of 648 terrorist organizations operating over the last half-century. According to the report, "... most groups ended because of operations carried out by local police or intelligence agencies or because they negotiated a settlement with their governments. Military force was rarely the primary reason a terrorist group ended, and few groups within this time frame achieved victory. These findings suggest that the U.S. approach to countering al Qa'ida has focused far too much on the use of military force. Instead, policing and intelligence should be the backbone of U.S. efforts."

Does RAND fundamentally disagree with the National Defense Strategy? Not really.

The DOD strategy emphasizes, "The use of force plays a role, yet military efforts to capture or kill terrorists are likely to be subordinate to measures to promote local participation in government and economic programs to spur development, as well as efforts to understand and address the grievances that often lie at the heart of insurgencies. For these reasons, arguably the most important military component of the struggle against violent extremists is not the fighting we do ourselves, but how well we help prepare our partners to defend and govern themselves."

Both reports suggest politicking and policing are usually the most effective measures against terrorism. Military operations can be - even with the most sophisticated planning - a blunt instrument more effective for short-term containment than long-term resolution.

This has arguably been the case with most historical examples, whether the "terrorist" is a 19th Century Anarchist or an 11th Century Assassin of Alamut or a 20th Century freedom fighter. Military power can set some conditions, but resolution has almost always depended on transforming the potential terrorist's sense of purpose to lessen the value of violence.

UASI Grants More Widely Distributed

2008-07-27T03:10:00.000-07:00

On July 25 the Department of Homeland Security announced $1.8 billion in federal Homeland Security grants. This included $781.6 million for the Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) program.

Sixty urban areas have been selected to participate in the UASI program. This is up from 46 cities last year and is the largest number of jurisdictions to participate in the program.

There are seven so-called Tier I UASI recipients:

New York: $144,189,000 in FY2008 UASI grants
Newark/Jersey City: $34,988,000
Los Angeles: $70,402,500
San Francisco: $37,155,000
Chicago: $45,861,500
Houston: $37,500,000
Washington D.C. $59,800,500

The "urban area" receiving the grant includes much more than the principal city.

The fifty-three Tier II recipients range from Toledo, Ohio ($1,264,500 ) and Bridgeport, Connecticut ($1,967,000) to Philadelphia ($18,139,000) and Dallas/Ft. Worth ($20,321,500). A listing of all 2008 recipients is available from the Department of Homeland Security.

Most Tier I jurisdictions did not see much change in funding from 2006-2007 to 2008. Tier II cities have tended to receive reduced grants as more areas have been added. For example in FY2006 Toledo received $3,850,000. In 2006 Louisville, Kentucky received $8,520,000, this year it will receive $1,421,500. Some of the difference has been made up with funding from other grant programs. But there is a clear trend to distribute UASI funds in a less-concentrated fashion.

The Tier I recipients often complain that they need even more funding. In 2007 Senate testimony New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg said, "“Time and time again, our calls for fully risk-based homeland security funding have been ignored,” the mayor said. “Instead, we have seen large sums of homeland security money spread across the country like peanut butter. More than $3 billion has been distributed in this irrational way so far.”

Risk is an outcome of threat, vulnerability, and consequence. Tier I areas receive a much greater proportion of UASI grants because their population density and economic importance would multiply the consequence of any successful attack. But as sustained efforts to reduce the vulnerability of these areas are effective, threats may shift to more vulnerable areas.

In August 1998 the US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania were bombed. These targets were chosen after the first World Trade Center bombing (1993) was not entirely successful and reflected a combination of local vulnerability and local terrorist capability. A bombing of three state capitols - Sacramento, Austin, and Richmond - might achieve terrorist objectives as well as an attack on any Tier I city... and be easier too.

UASI funds give priority to regional, inter-agency, multi-disciplinary planning, organization, training, and exercising focused on terrorist threats. There is also a particular concern with Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Drug-related Violence Shakes Mexico

2008-07-20T04:50:00.000-07:00

Mexican troops at a controlled burn of 23 tons of cocaine in Manzanillo (November 2007) Photograph by Alfredo Estrella/AFP

Since his 2006 inauguration Mexican President Felipe Calderon has increased pressure on his nation's drug lords. The cartels have pushed back hard.

According to Mexican reports released this week there were 443 drug-related murders in June and nearly 4700 since President Calderon assumed office. Murder victims have included the federal police chief and, in the first half of 2008 alone, over 400 other police. As violence escalates it has increasingly swept up ordinary citizens not involved in law enforcement or the drug trade (See Houston Chronicle July 19 report).

In a July 12 interview with the Financial Times, the Mexican intelligence chief explained that the drug cartels are "trying to take over the power of the state." A report by the Mexican Attorney General's office found that at least 80 municipal governments are already under the control of the drug cartels.

According to the Congressional Research Service over 90 percent of the US cocaine supply transits Mexico. Roughly 35 million Americans have used cocaine in their lifetime. Regular US users are estimated at 2.4 million (US Department of Justice figures). The 2006 US street price ranged from $9000 to $52,000 per kilogram. Unofficial 2008 estimates suggest an average price of about $20,000 per kilogram. Crack cocaine, a popular derivative, is priced from $5 to $100 per "rock". The total value of the US market for the cocaine trade exceeds $70 billion per year.

On June 30 President Bush signed Congressional legislation providing $465 million for the so-called Merida Initiative to assist Mexico in combating drug trafficking. According to a US State Department statement, "Daily developments on the ground in Mexico and Central America demonstrate the urgent need for action. The criminal organizations, under great pressure by law enforcement agencies, are behaving in increasingly violent ways. Our partners in the region are confronting transnational gangs and criminal organizations at great personal and financial costs. It is in the national security interest of the United States to support our partners’ fight against this scourge, prevent further violence from spilling over our border, and make our streets safe once again from drug and gang-related crime. They are doing their part – we must do ours."

The same Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTO) fighting against the Mexican government are major drug retailers in the United States. In April 2008 the US National Drug Intelligence Center reported, "Mexican DTOs are the most pervasive threat to the United States. They are active in every region of the country and dominate the illicit drug trade in every area except the Northeast. Mexican DTOs are expanding their operations in the Northeast and have developed cooperative relationships with DTOS in that area in order to gain a larger share of the northeastern drug market." More details are available from the NDIC.

The increase in violence is claimed by some as indicating the desperate state of the Mexican drug cartels. But others argue a government victory is far from inevitable. "They are accelerating the violence. We've never had this kind of conflict in the country," said Samuel Gonzalez, the head of Mexico's anti-organized crime unit in the late 1990s and now a professor at Mexico's ITAM university.

"The cartels have an infinite capacity to recruit hitmen. The violence will keep rising with one extra factor: the state is losing force all the time as it spends money on the army, while the others are getting income from drugs," he said. (More from Reuters).

(The New York Times maintains a helpful collection of news reports and external resources on Mexican drug trafficking.)

Tomatoes and Peppers Suspected

2008-07-13T01:43:00.000-07:00

Salsa is often made with tomatoes, cilantro, peppers, chilies, and garlic.

Since April 23 an outbreak of Salmonella food poisoning has sickened over 1000 people in the United States. Two-hundred ten have been hospitalized. One has died of causes aggravated by the Salmonella infection.

An aggressive effort by private, local, state and federal health and food safety officials to trace the origin and cause of the outbreak has been unsuccessful.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "Salmonella is a group of bacteria that can cause diarrheal illness in humans. They are microscopic living creatures that pass from the feces of people or animals to other people or other animals." The bacteria often enters the food system through irrigation or run-off of infected water.

Profiles developed of those sickened by the Saintpaul strain of Salmonella since April seem to suggest fresh tomatoes, cerrano peppers, and/or cilantro could be the carriers. But testing of commercially available products has found no infection.

In late June Dr. David Acheson, the Food and Drug Administration's Associate Director for Foods, explained, "“we may not ultimately know the farm where these came from... That’s not that unusual with tomato outbreaks,” he said. “It’s not that infrequent for us to be unable to actually trace back specifically to the source.”

Those infected with the Saintpaul strain have been identified in 42 states and the District of Columbia. Concentrations in New Mexico, Texas, and Illinois constitute roughly 60 percent of the total.

More information, including regular updating, is available from the CDC at http://www.cdc.gov/salmonella/saintpaul/

The industrialization of the food system has centralized both production and processing. Very large product volumes distributed over wide geographic areas result in any food safety problem being quickly transferred to large numbers of consumers.

The current Salmonella mystery demonstrates the potent threat presented by a compromised food safety system. Unless the source can be definitively identified, the cause cannot be known, and prevention or mitigation is frustrated. In 1984 ten salad bars in The Dalles, Oregon were contaminated with Salmonella by followers of Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh. Seven hundred fifty were sickened and 45 were hospitalized in an attempt to influence election results. (Additional information is available from wbur.org)

In April 2008 the Federal Bureau of Investigation hosted the Third Annual Symposium on Agroterrorism which included a presentation on Salmonella water supply contamination and several other risks to the food system.

The US food system is risk amplifying rather than risk resilient. Whatever the risk - natural, accidental, or intentional - the current system is highly vulnerable.

POSTSCRIPT - On July 21 the FDA reported a confirmed finding of salmonella stpaul on jalepeno peppers. More is available from CNN.

Federal Disaster Role Grows

2008-07-06T06:58:00.000-07:00

Flames near Big Sur, California (June 2008)

Photo by Kurt Rogers, San Francisco Chronicle

On June 28 President Bush, responding to a request from California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, declared an emergency for seven California counties fighting wildfires. The Presidential Declaration authorized federal assistance under the Stafford Act. The Emergency Declaration succeeds a June 22 federal Fire Management Assistance Declaration for two counties in California.

This was the fifth Emergency Declaration issued by the President in 2008. According to the Department of Homeland Security the purpose of the Emergency Declaration is, "to save lives and to protect property and public health and safety, and to lessen or avert the threat of a catastrophe."

Thirty-seven Major Disaster declarations have been issued since January. (A listing of Presidential Declarations is available from FEMA.) As defined by the Stafford Act an Emergency Declaration differs from a Disaster Declaration primarily in terms of the anticipated federal expenditure. There is a $5 million cap for an "emergency" while there is no cap for a "disaster." There are also expeditious ways to exceed the cap on federal funding of emergencies. Federal funding usually requires a local funding match of 25 percent. (More information on the difference between a disaster and emergency is available from SEMP.)

The number of Presidential Disaster Declarations is increasing over time. (The total number of Disaster Declarations per year is also available from FEMA.) Between 2002 and 2007 the average number of Disaster Declarations per year was 57.4. For the prior five-year period the average was 50.6. For the period 1993-1998 there was an average of 42 Disaster Declarations per year. It is difficult to track federal expenditures for disaster response, but a recent Congressional Research Service study found that emergency supplemental funding for disasters had increased from roughly $6 billion in 1998 to over $467 billion in 2008.

Several factors have influenced the increased federal role, including the escalating impact and cost of disasters, intensive national media coverage, and the political vulnerability of appearing to be less than fully responsive to local disasters. Some express concern that federal responsiveness is discouraging more aggressive local and state action that could reduce vulnerability to disasters. (See Feds and Fire from the Los Angeles Times)

Strategic Implications of Natural Threats

2008-06-29T06:32:00.000-07:00

Flooding of the Des Moines River at Farmington, Iowa (June 2008)

On Wednesday (June 25) the National Intelligence Council reported to the United States Congress:

We judge global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US national security interests over the next 20 years. Although the United States will be less affected and is better equipped than most nations to deal with climate change, and may even see a benefit owing to increases in agriculture productivity, infrastructure repair and replacement will be costly. We judge that the most significant impact for the United States will be indirect and result from climate-driven effects on many other countries and their potential to seriously affect US national security interests. We assess that climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state failure in any state out to 2030, but the impacts will worsen existing problems—such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Climate change could threaten domestic stability in some states, potentially contributing to intra- or, less likely, interstate conflict, particularly over access to increasingly scarce water resources. We judge that economic migrants will perceive additional reasons to migrate because of harsh climates, both within nations and from disadvantaged to richer countries.

(The NIC Report is classified. Congressional testimony regarding the report is available from the Director of National Intelligence' website.)

The National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 was delivered against a back-drop of seasonal - but especially harsh - climate-related disasters including floods in the American Midwest, central and eastern China, coastal Myanmar, and the Philippines; extreme drought in Spain, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, many African regions, and Australia; and early unusually intense wildfires across the American West.

In many cases human activity is implicated in worsening the impact of natural disaster. Some have argued a haphazard approach to levee construction in the upper Mississippi River valley has amplified the impact of heavy rainfall. (See The Floods: A Manmade Disaster?)

Natural disaster is predictable. Increasing population density exacerbates the potential human impact of any disaster. Mitigation is possible. Even when the natural cause of the disaster cannot be prevented it is possible to prevent much of the harm associated with the disaster through long-term thinking, being realistic regarding our vulnerabilities, and aiming for risk-resilience rather than complete risk-avoidance.