Strategic Implications of Natural Threats

Flooding of the Des Moines River at Farmington, Iowa (June 2008)

On Wednesday (June 25) the National Intelligence Council reported to the United States Congress:

We judge global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US national security interests over the next 20 years. Although the United States will be less affected and is better equipped than most nations to deal with climate change, and may even see a benefit owing to increases in agriculture productivity, infrastructure repair and replacement will be costly. We judge that the most significant impact for the United States will be indirect and result from climate-driven effects on many other countries and their potential to seriously affect US national security interests. We assess that climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state failure in any state out to 2030, but the impacts will worsen existing problems—such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Climate change could threaten domestic stability in some states, potentially contributing to intra- or, less likely, interstate conflict, particularly over access to increasingly scarce water resources. We judge that economic migrants will perceive additional reasons to migrate because of harsh climates, both within nations and from disadvantaged to richer countries.

(The NIC Report is classified. Congressional testimony regarding the report is available from the Director of National Intelligence' website.)

The National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 was delivered against a back-drop of seasonal - but especially harsh - climate-related disasters including floods in the American Midwest, central and eastern China, coastal Myanmar, and the Philippines; extreme drought in Spain, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, many African regions, and Australia; and early unusually intense wildfires across the American West.

In many cases human activity is implicated in worsening the impact of natural disaster. Some have argued a haphazard approach to levee construction in the upper Mississippi River valley has amplified the impact of heavy rainfall. (See The Floods: A Manmade Disaster?)

Natural disaster is predictable. Increasing population density exacerbates the potential human impact of any disaster. Mitigation is possible. Even when the natural cause of the disaster cannot be prevented it is possible to prevent much of the harm associated with the disaster through long-term thinking, being realistic regarding our vulnerabilities, and aiming for risk-resilience rather than complete risk-avoidance.