Mumbai: A Resilient Reality

The Taj Hotel in flames. Photo by Gautam Singh, Associated Press

The siege of Mumbai left 174 dead, iconic properties heavily damaged, and an increased sense of vulnerability... even far from India. But the Cafe Leopold has reopened. Trains continue to roll in and out of the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, and the Mumbai stock exchange traded within an entirely reasonable range, not obviously effected by the weekend's tragic turmoil and more certainly influenced by Monday's sharp slide in US stocks.

There have been private catastrophes. But the great city of 18.4 million people has quickly returned to its daily occupations.

The most serious threat to the security, economy, and prospects of Mumbai, India, and South Asia comes not from the weekend's terrorist action - no matter how heinous - but from potential reactions to terrorism.

India has quickly asserted the terrorists were members of a Pakistan based group with a history of attacks against India. Attempting to take action to prevent future such attacks the Indian government is pushing for the groups' leaders to be immediately handed over by Pakistan. Some Indian media reports suggest military action by India against terrorist targets in Pakistan is possible.

No credible party asserts that Pakistan's government was directly involved in the attacks. The Islamabad regime has, in fact, worked to signal its shared concern over terrorism by promising to dispatch a senior intelligence official to work with Indian authorities to assess the origins and outcomes of the Mumbai attacks. (An offer that may now be in doubt.) But it would be political suicide for the Pakistan government to succumb to current Indian demands.

Tensions have clearly - and quite predictably - increased between the two nuclear-armed neighbors and long-time adversaries.

A principal tactical objective of the Mumbai attacks was sustained global media attention. That objective was certainly achieved. A preferred strategic objective is almost certainly to further undermine the current government of Pakistan and to eliminate Indo-Pakistani cooperation in anti-terrorism. Without great care and considerable wisdom this objective could be delivered to the terrorists over the next few days.

Terrorist tactics are often aimed at pushing victims to respond in ways that serve the strategic self-interest of the terrorists. Mumbai has, in most ways, already recovered from the attacks. But can Mumbai - and the rest of the world - avoid the self-destructive reactions that now seem so tempting?

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks new professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.