Economic Implosion: Tempting Target?

Satellite image of the Ras Tanura facility.

In a recently released video (pdf) al Qaeda takes credit for US economic turmoil. The terrorist group's American-born spokesman claims, "The enemies of Islam are facing a crushing defeat, which is beginning to manifest itself in the expanding crisis their economy is experiencing... A crisis whose primary cause, in addition to the abortive and unsustainable crusades they are waging in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq, is their turning their backs on Allah's revealed laws, which forbid interest-bearing transactions, exploitation, greed and injustice in all its forms."

While the immediate claim is overstated, undermining the US economy has long been an explicit objective of al-Qaeda's strategy. Targeting the World Trade Center towers was both a symbolic and practical means of economic warfare.

Other economic targets include the 2002 attack on the Limburg a French supertanker, a credible 2004 plot to target US banks and financial institutions, and the increasing threat of economic disruption through cyberattacks.

But what many find the most chilling prospect is the targeting of Saudi oil infrastructure. Several failed attacks and an accumulation of captured terrorist documents demonstrate the intention to strike at what Osama bin Laden has called, "the provision line and the feeding to the artery of the life of the crusader nation."

In May 2004 an attack on the Saudi oil facility in Yanbu killed two Americans, two Britons, and an Australian.

In February 2006 the Saudi oil processing facility at Abqaiq was attacked with two bomb-laden vehicles and an unconfirmed number of individuals. The operation can be viewed as a tactical probe as much as an unsuccessful attack.

The biggest target is almost certainly the Saudi port of Ras Tanura, the world's largest offshore oil loading facility. Nearly 7/8's of all Saudi oil flows through this single port. It is no coincidence that the US Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain less than 50 miles southeast of Ras Tanura.

In late August an accidental fire at Ras Tanura reduced refined outputs. An attack - successful or not - would cause a spike in oil prices. Any sustained curtailment of oil shipments through Ras Tanura would almost certainly send shock waves through an energy hungry economic system.

In a new book, The Plan: How to Rescue Society the Day the Oil Stops - or the Day Before, Edwin Black describes our vulnerability, "...if one, two or all of three vital chokepoints are hit by terrorists flying hijacked 747s or Iranian military action - the Abqaiq processing plant, the Ras Tanura terminal in Saudi Arabia, or the two-mile per sea lane Strait of Hormuz - as much as 40% of all seaborne oil will be stopped, as much as 18% of all global supply will be interrupted, and from 12 to 20% of the US supply will be cut off. Estimates are the US shortfall could be even higher. Repeat attacks could prolong the crisis for many months, which is exactly what either al-Qaida or Iranian terrorists have promised."

If plans are in place for such an attack, the economic turmoil of the last few weeks makes it even more tempting to give the go-order now.