October 20 - 25, 2008

Pandemic Report

Friday, October 24 - A Joint UN and World Bank study finds, "A global analysis of the (avian influenza) situation now in mid to late 2008 indicates fewer outbreaks in poultry, fewer newly infected countries, fewer human cases and fewer deaths compared to the same period in 2006 and 2007. Over 50 of the 61 countries that have experience an H5N1 outbreak, have successfully eliminated the disease. However, the virus remains entrenched in several countries and the threat of further outbreaks of HPAI in poultry (and sporadic cases in humans) persists. The threat of an influenza pandemic remains unchanged. While these findings suggest that HPAI strategies are successful when properly implemented, they also highlight that sustained vigilance and continued investment is needed in both surveillance and capacity to respond to HPAI." The complete report is available in pdf.

Recovery Hard in Haiti

Friday, October 24 - The BBC reports, "More than six weeks after the fourth cyclone in three weeks hit Haiti the relief operation has almost ground to a halt according to a major aid organisation there." (See related essay in previous Monday (P)review)

Earthquake Promised

Friday, October 24 - "When the next big earthquake hits the San Francisco Bay Area, it will be a catastrophe of Hurricane Katrina proportions. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of people will die, and hundreds of thousands will become homeless. Economic losses will be on the order of $200 billion, the vast majority of it uninsured. Outside help will be desperately needed, but difficult to coordinate and execute." More from Wired, and from the BBC, and from the San Jose Mercury-News.

Stormtracking Satellites

Friday, October 24 - "The U.S. government is looking to launch a new and powerful weather satellite that will be better able to pinpoint where hurricanes and tornadoes may strike.The Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite, called GOES-R, will possess technologies not found in weather satellites such as the ability to photograph hurricane storm tracks every 30 seconds and capture images of cloud-to-cloud lightning that can precede tornadoes." More from USA Today.

Domestic Intelligence Considered

Friday, October 24 - The Rand Corporation has released a new report entitled, Reorganizing US Domestic Intelligence. The results of a Capitol Hill briefing are available from Government Executive.

LAPD Chief Warns of Possible Terrorism

Thursday, October 23 - In yesterday's New York Daily News, Los Angeles Police Chief William Bratton warns, "If Bin Laden wants to engineer a late-October surprise in 2008, an attack on a significant American economic target may be one of the most tempting opportunities he has had in recent years. One of his goals on 9/11 was to undermine our markets; he has bragged of what he calls the "success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan." Given our current financial turmoil, Bin Laden may believe that a strike against the U.S.could push our economy over the edge." (Two weeks ago Monday (P)review outlined a simiilar analysis.) Chief Bratton is one of several rumored candidates for Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in an Obama administration. The Daily News oped was co-authored by R.P. Eddy an informal advisor to the Obama campaign and member of the National Security Council under President Clinton.

Missiles Hit School

Thursday, October 23 - A suspected US missile strike has killed at least eight students at a religious school in north-western Pakistan, witnesses say. More from the BBC.

New Airline Boarding Process

Thursday, October 23 - "The Department of Homeland Security will take over responsibility for checking airline passenger names against government watch lists beginning in January, and will require travelers for the first time to provide their full name, birth date and gender as a condition for boarding commercial flights," according to the Washington Post. Writing in the October Atlantic Jeffrey Goldberg says "Airport security in America is a sham—“security theater” designed to make travelers feel better and catch stupid terrorists. Smart ones can get through security with fake boarding passes and all manner of prohibited items..."

Wildfires on Both Coasts

Wednesday, October 22 - Wildfires east of Los Angeles and another south of Atlantic City were burning Tuesday night. According to the San Diego Union Tribune catastrophic results from Southern California wildfires have been avoided only through an unprecedented deployment of the National Guard and other new firefighting resources. The Santa Fe New Mexican makes the case - and explains the complications - for using prescribed burns.

Chertoff Predicts Threat

Wednesday, October 22 - Bloomberg reports that the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, expects an increased risk of terrorist attack in the first six months after the election. "Any period of transition creates a greater vulnerability, meaning there's more likelihood of distraction... You have to be concerned it will create an operational opportunity for terrorists.''

Tanker Truck Explodes

Wednesday, October 22 - The San Francisco Chronicle reports, a "car collided with a big rig on I-880 at 16th Avenue, according to the California Highway Patrol. The truck - carrying 8,600 gallons of gasoline - exploded, and firefighters used water and foam to extinguish a blaze that sent flames shooting more than 50 feet into the air."

Preventing Pandemics

Wednesday, October 22 - Environmental surveillance - long fundamental to public health - requires a more expansive reach to prevent pandemic. "“With epidemics, people have been standing on the shore, waiting for the gusher to hit the ocean,” Dr. Wolfe said, referring to the tidal-wave impact a widespread epidemic could have around the world. “But to prevent epidemics, you have to look at the various little sources that feed into the river," according to the New York Times.

NYT Follows Monday (P)review

Wednesday, October 22 - Late yesterday the New York Times reported much of what Monday (P)review outlined in its weekly essay first published October 19 on the emerging differences in US and British approaches to counterterrorism.

Nuclear Terrorism Unlikely

Tuesday, October 21 - "Brian Michael Jenkins, a longtime terrorism expert with the Rand Corp., says that the threat (of nuclear terrorism) lies more in the realms of Hollywood dramas and terrorist dreams than in reality. There has never been an act of nuclear terrorism, he notes, yet the threat is so potentially catastrophic that it incites fear -- and that fear fulfills a terrorist's primary goal." More from the National Journal.

Powder Scare at Chase Banks

Tuesday, October 21 - "At least 30 letters containing suspicious powder have been mailed to Chase banks in eight cities but so far appear to be harmless," according to the Associated Press.