Past as Prologue

Ice storm cuts power in New Hampshire. From the Manchester Union-Leader.

Later today (Monday, December 15) President-elect Obama's National Security team will meet in Chicago. I would not want to be in charge of setting the agenda.

Last Sunday we remembered the attack on Pearl Harbor. On Monday white powder envelopes were received by many of the nation's Governors. More envelopes arrived on Tuesday and Wednesday. Talks with North Korea regarding its nuclear program stalled on Wednesday. On Thursday Belgian authorities conducted sixteen raids on suspected terrorist cells. In Morocco the Interior Ministry announced the arrest of several suspected terrorists who are accused of planning bank robberies to finance terrorist operations. On Thursday the World Health Organization confirmed another human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. On Friday an ice storm hit the Northeast United States knocking out power to millions. Earlier today the Boston Globe reported that at least 300,000 will continue without power for several days. On Saturday the Indian navy announced the arrest of 23 pirates in the Gulf of Aden. Intensive diplomatic efforts continued throughout the week in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks. There were bombings in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Et cetera, et cetera.

Effective leadership often involves distinguishing between what is important and what is urgent. The distinction can sometimes be subtle.

The to-be-nominated Secretary of Homeland Security is a member of the National Security team. It has not yet been decided if there will be a White House Homeland Security Advisor.

Which of the incidents listed are Homeland Security incidents? Which are National Security incidents? Which are both?

Which of the incidents listed are important? Which are urgent? How did you decide?

Which of the incidents present the most likely threat to more Americans? Which present the most consequential threats? What are the top risks? How did you decide?

The new week began with an editorial in the Sunday Times arguing that the "National Guard is ideally designed to reinforce homeland security" and urging President-elect Obama to avoid over-using the Guard for missions abroad.

I understand the new national security team will meet for a couple of hours. Would be interesting to hear how they choose priorities. Just the last few days present a powerful prologue for their continued work.

NOTE TO READERS: This is the last MONDAY (P)REVEW expected to be published in 2008.

Focusing on Any Single Threat is Risky

On Tuesday I met with a retired four-star general. He is a thoughtful and experienced man concerned that prevention of terrorism does not and will not receive sufficient priority. He pointed to the lack of attention to terrorism in the election, recent public opinion surveys, and the lessons of human nature.

That this worry was credible in the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attack seemed a bit surreal. While the general and I were talking the Commission on Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism released its report titled World at Risk. As is required of any report hoping to garner attention it offered a breath-taking warning, "It is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013."

The media took the bait and appropriately apocalyptic headlines were offered: Alarm raised on threat of mass assault (Financial Times), US sees WMD attack by 2013 (Arab News) 1900 Days and Counting (Newsweek), Biological terror attack likely by 2013 (CNN), Report Sounds Alarm Over Bioterror (Washington Post) and many more of similar tone. If anything US headlines were understated compared to the international media. Not everyone agrees with the findings, but we have learned it is dangerous to underestimate the imagination and persistence of our terrorist adversaries.

The Commission report is thoughtful and helpful. There is also nothing really new in what is offered. In December 2002 the White House announced a new Homeland Security Presidential Directive entitled National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction. While the HSPD is classified we know the first sentence reads, "Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) -- nuclear, biological, and chemical -- in the possession of hostile states and terrorists represent one of the greatest security challenges facing the United States. We must pursue a comprehensive strategy to counter this threat in all of its dimensions."

In terms of the Commission's warning of a biological attack, in April 2004 the White House released HSPD-10 entitled BioDefense for the 21st Century. The details are secret. But a declassified overview explains, "Biological weapons attacks could be mounted either inside or outside the United States and, because some biological weapons agents are contagious, the effects of an initial attack could spread widely. Disease outbreaks, whether natural or deliberate, respect no geographic or political borders. Preventing and controlling future biological weapons threats will be even more challenging. Advances in biotechnology and life sciences -- including the spread of expertise to create modified or novel organisms -- present the prospect of new toxins, live agents, and bioregulators that would require new detection methods, preventive measures, and treatments. These trends increase the risk for surprise. Anticipating such threats through intelligence efforts is made more difficult by the dual-use nature of biological technologies and infrastructure, and the likelihood that adversaries will use denial and deception to conceal their illicit activities. The stakes could not be higher for our Nation."

Four years later essentially the same finding is headline news. This is the part of human nature that worries the general.

There is a widespread expectation that the Obama administration may appoint high-level "czars" to coordinate national policy and strategy related to nuclear, biological, and cyber threats. Certainly nothing wrong with that. It is tough to coordinate a big beast like the federal government, even harder when there is a need for cooperation with foreign governments, the States, and private sector.

But all of this is a bit reminiscent of Chicken Little. In focusing on one possible threat - the sky is falling - we can too often neglect an even more significant threat - Foxy Loxy. I am not suggesting the bio-terrorist threat is analogous to a mere pebble or acorn or cherry (the original threat analysis was ambiguous). But rather than be preoccupied with any particular threat, we need the discipline of ongoing risk awareness and adaptation to the risk environment.

This kind of risk awareness is hard. It is not part of our human nature (pdf). For a variety of reasons that paid dividends in our evolutionary past, we tend to discount future risks even while we react - sometimes irrationally - to current threats, perceived or real. The general is right to be worried.

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks new professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.

Mumbai: A Resilient Reality

The Taj Hotel in flames. Photo by Gautam Singh, Associated Press

The siege of Mumbai left 174 dead, iconic properties heavily damaged, and an increased sense of vulnerability... even far from India. But the Cafe Leopold has reopened. Trains continue to roll in and out of the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, and the Mumbai stock exchange traded within an entirely reasonable range, not obviously effected by the weekend's tragic turmoil and more certainly influenced by Monday's sharp slide in US stocks.

There have been private catastrophes. But the great city of 18.4 million people has quickly returned to its daily occupations.

The most serious threat to the security, economy, and prospects of Mumbai, India, and South Asia comes not from the weekend's terrorist action - no matter how heinous - but from potential reactions to terrorism.

India has quickly asserted the terrorists were members of a Pakistan based group with a history of attacks against India. Attempting to take action to prevent future such attacks the Indian government is pushing for the groups' leaders to be immediately handed over by Pakistan. Some Indian media reports suggest military action by India against terrorist targets in Pakistan is possible.

No credible party asserts that Pakistan's government was directly involved in the attacks. The Islamabad regime has, in fact, worked to signal its shared concern over terrorism by promising to dispatch a senior intelligence official to work with Indian authorities to assess the origins and outcomes of the Mumbai attacks. (An offer that may now be in doubt.) But it would be political suicide for the Pakistan government to succumb to current Indian demands.

Tensions have clearly - and quite predictably - increased between the two nuclear-armed neighbors and long-time adversaries.

A principal tactical objective of the Mumbai attacks was sustained global media attention. That objective was certainly achieved. A preferred strategic objective is almost certainly to further undermine the current government of Pakistan and to eliminate Indo-Pakistani cooperation in anti-terrorism. Without great care and considerable wisdom this objective could be delivered to the terrorists over the next few days.

Terrorist tactics are often aimed at pushing victims to respond in ways that serve the strategic self-interest of the terrorists. Mumbai has, in most ways, already recovered from the attacks. But can Mumbai - and the rest of the world - avoid the self-destructive reactions that now seem so tempting?

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks new professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.

Tough Times Predicted

The International Monetary Fund's Board of Governors

The National Intelligence Council predicts a significant shift in the US risk profile between now and 2025. According to a report released last week the next two decades will feature intense international competition for markets, energy, and even water. This competition will increase friction between cultures and regions. Managing the competition will be complicated by dwindling US dominance and the weakness of international institutions.

Some key findings:

• A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and others. The relative power of nonstate actors—businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and even criminal networks—also will increase.


• The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue.


• Continued economic growth—coupled with 1.2 billion more people by 2025—will put pressure on energy, food, and water resources.


• Opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear weapons will increase as technology diffuses and nuclear power (and possibly weapons) programs expand.

The NIC report expects the United States to remain the single most powerful nation, but the relative power of the United States will decline as the affluence and influence of others increase.

The report joins many others in noting the current international framework - centered around the United Nations, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund - is incapable of responding effectively to current, much less emerging, challenges. This has been a topic of discussion for many years. The current economic crisis is pushing the process past talk to action.

At its November 15 Washington Summit the Group of Twenty outlined surprisingly detailed actions, including several to be implemented by March 31, 2009. These actions advance a new consensus view of much greater international cooperation in economic and financial regulation:

We call upon our national and regional regulators to formulate their regulations and other measures in a consistent manner. Regulators should enhance their coordination and cooperation across all segments of financial markets, including with respect to cross-border capital flows. Regulators and other relevant authorities as a matter of priority should strengthen cooperation on crisis prevention, management, and resolution.

We are committed to advancing the reform of the Bretton Woods Institutions so that they can more adequately reflect changing economic weights in the world economy in order to increase their legitimacy and effectiveness. In this respect, emerging and developing economies, including the poorest countries, should have greater voice and representation. The Financial Stability Forum (FSF) must expand urgently to a broader membership of emerging economies, and other major standard setting bodies should promptly review their membership. The IMF, in collaboration with the expanded FSF and other bodies, should work to better identify vulnerabilities, anticipate potential stresses, and act swiftly to play a key role in crisis response.

In remarks last April at the John F. Kennedy Library Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, anticipated many of these international financial reforms and pressed for similar steps across a much broader agenda:

So a new World Bank; a new International Monetary Fund; a reformed and renewed United Nations mandated and resourced that is greater than the sum of its parts; strong regional organisations from the European Union to the African Union able to bring to a troubled world the humanitarian aid, peacekeeping and the support for stability and reconstruction that has been absent for too long — all built around a new global society founded on revitalised international rules and institutions, and grounded in the great values we share in common.

In his remarks Prime Minister Brown wondered if the will to reform could be generated short of global calamity. In the unraveling of global prosperity since his speech a motivating calamity may have been provided... for better or worse.

The full NIC report is available by selecting Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. It is a large pdf exceeding 33 megabytes.

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks new professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.

Religious Terrorism Rejected

Pope Benedict XVI and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.

Meetings at the Vatican and the United Nations have condemned the religious pretensions of terrorists. During the first week in November religious scholars from several faiths met at the Vatican. Last week secular leaders from many nations met in New York. Both meetings addressed the religious dimensions of terrorism.

"A joint declaration issued at the end of a Vatican sponsored three-day Muslim-Catholic forum has called for recognition by both Muslims and Christians of the rights of women and freedom of conscience, and condemned terrorism in the name of religion," the Times of London reported.

Seventy nations participated in the the UN meeting, the latest in a series of discussions organized around inter-faith issues by Saudi Arabia. In their final declaration the UN delegates offered, "“Participating States affirmed their rejection of the use of religion to justify the killing of innocent people and actions of terrorism, violence and coercion, which directly contradict the commitment of all religions to peace, justice and equality.”

In his remarks to the UN delegates President Bush argued, "We may profess different creeds and worship in different places, but our faith leads us to common values. We believe God calls us to love our neighbors, and to treat one another with compassion and respect. We believe God calls us to honor the dignity of all life, and to speak against cruelty and injustice. We believe God calls us to live in peace -- and to oppose all those who use His name to justify violence and murder."

In their Joint Declaration those meeting November 4-6 at Rome's Gregorian University wrote, "We profess that Catholics and Muslims are called to be instruments of love and harmony among believers, and for humanity as a whole, renouncing any oppression, aggressive violence and terrorism, especially that committed in the name of religion, and upholding the principle of justice for all."

The Vatican meeting was the specific result of an inter-religious controversy arising from remarks by Pope Benedict XVI at Regensburg University in 2006. Islamic scholars responded to the controversy with an open letter which, in turn, led to the organizing of recent discussions in Rome.

The open letter, originally signed by 138 leading Islamic scholars, was entitled A Common Word between Us and You. The letter begins, "Muslims and Christians together make up well over half of the world’s population. Without peace and justice between these two religious communities, there can be no meaningful peace in the world. The future of the world depends on peace between Muslims and Christians. The basis for this peace and understanding already exists. It is part of the very foundational principles of both faiths: love of the One God, and love of the neighbour. These principles are found over and over again in the sacred texts of Islam and Christianity. The Unity of God, the necessity of love for Him, and the necessity of love of the neighbour is thus the common ground between Islam and Christianity."

Recent public opinion surveys in Muslim nations have found dwindling support for terrorism in the name of Islam. Suicide bombings are, in particular, increasingly viewed as inconsistent with Islamic teaching.

Interfaith discussions are certainly not restricted to international conclaves. Recent news reports have highlighted such interactions in Los Angeles, New Haven, and more broadly.

NOTE TO READERS: Over the next several weeks a new set of professional obligations may delay or interrupt regular publication of Monday (P)review.

Obama Sets Homeland Security Priorities

Senator Obama seen at a July 16 Purdue University roundtable on new threats.

The Obama campaign committed significant resources to Homeland Security policy development. While the issue never broke into the first-tier of election issues, the campaign's paper trail suggests a substantive shift from the last seven years.

According to campaign documents, "Barack Obama and Joe Biden's strategy for securing the homeland against 21st Century threats is driven by the twin goals of preventing terrorist attacks on our homeland and investing in national resilience that enables people closest to a crisis to act and achieve an rapid return to normal." This strategy will be advanced through:

1. Preparedness for catastrophic risk,
2. Prevention and mitigation of catastrophic risk, and
3. Partnership with the states, localities and the private sector in prevention, mitigation and preparedness.

On October 19 the campaign released a long-vetted position paper (pdf) on Homeland Security. In thirteen pages the document outlines a wide range of policies. A one-page campaign summary (pdf) gives particular priority to defeat terrorism worldwide, combat 21st Century threats, secure our border and strengthen our infrastructure, and work effectively with state and local governments and the private sector.

The specific threats given most attention are nuclear terrorism, bioterrorism, cyberterrorism, and natural catastrophes. These are threats that can challenge any real recovery.

The Obama strategy leads with prevention. Almost all of the counter-terrorist tactics discussed are prevention-oriented. Improving the intelligence function receives the expected nod. But there is also a specific commitment to "establishing a grant program to support thousands more state and local level intelligence analysts and increasing our capacity to share intelligence across all levels of government."

Headline attention is given to "Prepare Effective Emergency Response Plans." This is something to which the President-elect gave attention as a member of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee. Some campaign insiders expect this to morph into giving much more priority to local and regional preparedness, prevention, and mitigation planning. Rigorous local plans - instead of detailed DHS requirements - will become the foundation of national risk management.

Woven consistently into the Obama plan is an emphasis on - perhaps even a deference to - local leadership. The campaign policy statement includes, "The risks facing this nation cannot be effectively prevented or managed by the federal government alone. Barack Obama knows that prevention, mitigation, response and recovery are primarily local issues... The federal government must begin by listening to local concerns and acknowledging local priorities. The private sector has proven its willingness and ability to work in support of our nation’s security, but they have not been fully engaged as a partner by the federal government. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will reach out to the private sector in order to leverage its expertise and assets to protect our homeland. Our city police, county sheriffs, firefighters, state police, public health professionals, EMTs, hospital staff, public works personnel, emergency managers, electric utilities crews, transportation workers, Red Cross volunteers – and so many more hometown heroes – must be confident of federal competence, cooperation, and support before, during, and after a disaster."

Also referenced in the campaign documents is, "He (Obama) will invest in strengthening our aging infrastructure to improve both safety and security." This Homeland Security tactic is likely to be amplified as the federal government makes major infrastructure investments as part of its economic recovery effort.

The exegesis could continue. The Obama Homeland Security policy documents are dense and detailed. Many more policy papers remain in campaign (now transition) files, ready to be used. But if even these few strategic priorities are effectively implemented it will mark a decided shift in the Department of Homeland Security and in how our nation engages risk.

November 2 - 8, 2008

Terrorist Threat Growing

Saturday, November 8 - "Secret enclaves of al-Qaeda extremists based in London, Birmingham and Luton are planning mass-casualty attacks in Britain," according to late Saturday reports. The Sunday Telegraph has made this its lead story for Remembrance Sunday.

Pakistan Warns and Welcomes

Saturday, November 8 - Coincident with the obligatory congratulations to the new US President, Pakistan's government and general public continue to protest US operations in the Pakistan-Afghan border region.

White House Hacked

Saturday, November 8 - The Financial Times reports, "Chinese hackers have penetrated the White House computer network on multiple occasions and obtained e-mails between government officials." Similar attacks on the McCain and Obama campaign systems have also been reported.

Pandemic Threat Persists

Friday, November 7 - With the financial crisis diverting politicians’ attention, and no sign after a decade that the H5N1 virus is set to trigger a pandemic, public health specialists are worried that the world is turning its back on the continued threat of a lethal flu outbreak," according to the Financial Times.

Material Support Charge Ruled Unconstitutional

Friday, November 7 - A federal judge in Oregon has ruled a law prohibiting material support for terrorists is unconstitutional because it is too vague. U.S. District Judge Garr King said the Treasury Department violated the rights of the Oregon chapter of a defunct Islamic charity based in Saudi Arabia," according to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Most Leads Don't Lead

Friday, November 7 - The FBI tracked about 108,000 potential terrorism threats or suspicious incidents from mid-2004 to November 2007, but most were found groundless, a Justice Department review found on Friday. (More from Reuters and DOJ Office of the Inspector General)

Tokyo Dirty Bomb Exercise

Friday, November 7 - On Thursday Japanese authorities conducted an especially intricate interagency exercise focused on the threat of a dirty bomb being exploded in Tokyo.

Interfaith Meeting Condemns Terrorism

Friday, November 7 - "A joint declaration issued at the end of the Vatican's three-day Muslim-Catholic forum has called for recognition by both Muslims and Christians of the rights of women and freedom of conscience, and condemned terrorism in the name of religion," according to the Times of London.

Early Blizzard

Friday, November 7 - More than a foot of snow, high winds, white-out conditions, and significant transportation and power problems hit the northern plains.

Secret Deal with Pakistan?

Thursday, November 6 - David Ignatius reports that the US and Pakistan have reached an informal understanding regarding US operations into Pakistan.

CQ Projects Obama Homeland Security Policy

Wednesday, November 5 - Congressional Quarterly provides a quick overview of an anticipated counter-terrorism and Homeland Security policy for an Obama administration. This will be the focus of next Monday's (P)review.

Low Pressure in Caribbean

Tuesday, November 4 - A broad area of low pressure south of Cuba has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next few days. More from the National Hurricane Center. UPDATE: Hurricane Paloma formed late Thursday. UPDATE 2: Paloma made its Cuban landfall late Saturday night as a CAT4 hurricane.

Pakistan Warns Petraeus

Tuesday, November 4 - The next U.S. president must halt missile strikes on insurgent targets in northwest Pakistan or risk failure in its efforts to end militancy in the Muslim country, the prime minister warned General David Petraeus.

Second Gitmo Conviction

Tuesday, November 4 - A military panel at the Guantánamo Bay naval base convicted Ali Hamza al Bahlul, a former propaganda chief for Al Qaeda, of terrorism charges on Monday and sentenced him to life in prison, according to the New York Times. In separate legal action, six Algerian detainees have filed for a habeas corpus hearing.

Blacklists Challenged

Tuesday, November 4 - The United Nations blacklist of alleged terrorism financiers is facing legal challenges and dwindling support. Challenges to the U.N. list, which contains 503 individuals, businesses and groups, are coming from courts in Europe, including the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg, which ruled the blacklist is illegal because it lacks accountability and a mechanism for those on it to challenge their inclusion, the Washington Post reported Sunday.

Focus on Outcomes not Origins

"The next U.S. president will govern in an era of increasing international instability, including a heightened risk of terrorist attacks in the near future, long-term prospects of regional conflicts and diminished U.S. dominance across the globe," is how the Washington Post summarized a speech last week by the CIA director.

The CIA is appropriately focused on assessing threats from outside the United States. But external threats do not constitute the nation's only or necessarily most serious risks.

Last week President Bush spoke at graduation ceremonies for the FBI Academy. "Here at home, we've transformed our national security institutions and have given our intelligence and law enforcement professionals the tools and the resources they need to do their job, and that is to protect the American people. We formed a new Department of Homeland Security. We created a new Director for National Intelligence. We established a program at the Central Intelligence Agency to interrogate key terrorist leaders captured in the war on terror... Since 9/11, the Bureau has worked with our partners around the world to disrupt planned terrorist attacks."

Counter-terrorism deserves sustained attention. Is there similar priority and sufficient strategic attention given to other catastrophic risks?

Last week a United Nations conference declared the risk of pandemic has never been higher. Concern for domestic terrorism was underlined by the arrest of white supremacists planning a killing spree. An extended wildfire season in many areas of the United States has depleted budgets and exhausted firefighters. We are past due for a major California earthquake. Hurricane recovery continues on the Gulf Coast.

In February 2007 the British think-tank Demos recommended a fundamental reconceiving of national security. The Demos report cites a "broad spectrum of threats and hazards to national security." Among those listed are, terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, organized crime, espionage, fragile states, natural disasters, pandemics, energy security, and vulnerability of critical national infrastructure.

Rather than focusing on the origin of a threat, the Demos report suggests giving more attention to the outcome of a risk. What is the consequence of a calculated risk? What is the likelihood of a threat? What are our greatest risks regardless of origin?

We can be creatures of our categories, how we organize reality. From time beyond memory we have tended to organize our threats by the enemy outside, the criminal inside, and the unfolding of mysterious fate or divine punishment or random accident. For each of these origins we have had a different attitude and response.

Tactically the focus on different origins can be helpful. Strategically the focus on origins rather than outcomes can discourage effective prevention, mitigation, and readiness. Recognizing this the United Kingdom's 2008 National Security Strategy (pdf) encourages more attention to relative risk rather than just external threats.

Geographically and constitutionally - even geologically and meteorologically - the US situation is more complicated than that of the British. A small island nation two generations removed from imperial ambition is more predisposed to comprehensive risk analysis than a continent-striding superpower.

But the consequences of Katrina - and the entirely predictable economic, social, political, and human consequences of a major California quake or serious pandemic - should be sufficiently clear to encourage more coordinated attention to the whole horizon of risk.

One modest step the new administration might take is the creation of a White House Council for Risk Estimation. This body would work to provide the President and cabinet a framework for prioritizing risk. Similar to how the National Intelligence Council supports the Director of National Intelligence, the Council for Risk Estimation would:

• Coordinate the contributions of Federal agencies to evaluate risk outcomes and priorities.


• Reach out to nongovernment experts in academia, the private sector, and State and local agencies to broaden the Federal understanding of risk.


• Produce National Risk Estimates (NREs) and related products to support policy making and resource allocation.


• Contribute to decisions by the President, Office of Management and Budget and Cabinet agencies to allocate resources in a manner to reflect risk priorities.

October 27 - November 1, 2008

Louisiana Refinery Fire

Friday, October 31 - A three-alarm fire sent up a large plume of black smoke over a Shreveport refinery Thursday after area residents reported an explosion. No injuries were reported, according to the Associated Press. The refinery has a history of OSHA fines, according to the Shreveport Times.

President Praises FBI

Friday, October 31 - President George W. Bush told a graduating class at the FBI Academy at Quantico Marine Corps Base yesterday that the fact that a major terrorist attack has not hit U.S. soil since Sept. 11, 2001, is "not an accident." Some are suggesting the anti-terrorist focus will only intensify in the remaining months of a Bush Presidency.

Jellyfish Attack Nuclear Plant

Thursday, October 30 - The Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Station, near San Luis Obispo, California, was shut down by an attack of Jellyfish. Infestations of Jellyfish are increasingly common.

Heavy Snow

Wednesday, October 29 - A foot or more of lake effect snow closed schools, cut power, and snarled traffic across Northern New York. The same system brought measureable snow as far south as the Carolina mountains.

Canadian Trial Convicts of Terrorism

Wednesday, October 29 - "A Canadian software developer who designed and built a remote-control device meant to trigger bomb blasts was found guilty of financing and facilitating terrorism," according to the Toronto Star.

Federal Judge Defines Enemy Combatant

Tuesday, October 28 - Al-Qaida or Taliban supporters who directly assisted in hostile acts against the United States or its allies can be held without charges as enemy combatants, a federal judge ruled Monday. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Richard J. Leon takes a first step toward resolving the fate of some of the hundreds of men — many who have been held for years without charges — detained as terror suspects at the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. (More from the Associated Press.)

Candidates Contrasted

Tuesday, October 28 - Newsday has published a comparison of the Obama and McCain positions on Homeland Security.

Skinheads Accused of Killing Spree Plot

Tuesday, October 28 - Two Tennessee residents have been arrested for conspiracy and weapons charges in an alleged plan to engage in robbery, mass murder, and an attempted assassination of Barack Obama. More from Reuters.

Which Model Gitmo or Ft. Dix?

Above is a sketch of the military commission trial of Salim Hamdan.

As the trial of five men accused of planning to attack Ft. Dix got underway last week, the New York Times reported the White House will let the next President decide what to do with those detained at Guantanamo Bay. The coincidence highlights two very different angles on counterterrorism.

"The administration is now proceeding on the assumption that Guantánamo will remain open not only for the rest of Bush's presidency but also well beyond, the officials said, as the site for military tribunals of those facing charges for terrorism-related crimes and for the long prison sentences that could follow convictions," the Times reported on October 20.

"The new president will gnash his teeth and beat his head against the wall when he realizes how complicated it is to close Guantánamo," the Times quoted an unnamed administration official as saying.

Part of the issue is the continued lack of legal consensus on a definition for enemy combatant. On Wednesday Federal Judge Richard J. Leon, presiding over a habeas corpus hearing for six Gitmo detainees, complained, ""I don't understand, I really don't, how the Supreme Court made the decision it made and left that question open. . . .I don't understand how the Congress could let it go this long without resolving" it." (More from the Boston Globe)

No such controversy complicates the trial of the Ft. Dix defendants. The men are charged with attempted murder, conspiracy to murder uniformed military personnel, and weapons offenses.

"Their motive was to defend Islam. Their inspiration was al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden. Their intent was to kill members of the United States armed services," Deputy U.S. Attorney William Fitzpatrick told the jurors according to the Associated Press.

According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, "Six suspects were originally charged in the Fort Dix case. One, Agron Abdullahu, 25, a baker in a ShopRite store near Williamstown (NJ), pleaded guilty to a conspiracy charge, admitting he had given weapons to three of the other defendants. He was sentenced to 20 months in prison."

"The five other defendants, charged with the more serious offense of plotting to kill soldiers, are brothers Dritan Duka, 29, Shain Duka, 27, and Eljvir Duka, 24; Mohamad Shnewer, 23; and Serdar Tatar, 24. The Dukas and Shnewer are from Cherry Hill. Tatar is a former Cherry Hill resident who was living in Philadelphia when he and the others were arrested."

"Shnewer, who was born in Jordan, is a U.S. citizen. Tatar, born in Turkey, is a legal resident immigrant. The Duka brothers, ethnic Albanians from what is now Macedonia, have been living in the country illegally since arriving as young children by way of Mexico in the late 1980s."

The legal action taken against the five is "a type of pre-emptive prosecution that has grown more common in U.S. terrorism cases since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks," according to the Associated Press. "Prosecutors are trying to prove not only that they arrested the right men, but that the suspects were planning a crime. Defense lawyers are likely to argue that while their clients may have spoken ill of America and even rooted for terrorists, that does not mean they intended to kill soldiers. They will also question the character, motives and role of two paid government informants who made hundreds of hours of secret recordings that form the bulk of the evidence in the trial."

The trials of alleged terrorists at Guantanamo have been slow to proceed as wrangling continues over their legal status and the sufficiency of due process. In August seven years after Gitmo received its first inmates, Salim Ahmed Hamdan was the first one convicted. The verdict was that he had provided material support for terrorism.

At least four military prosecutors have resigned their Guantanamo cases. According to the Los Angeles Times in September Lt. Col. Darrel J. Vandeveld explained his resignation being the result of a military commissions process so dysfunctional that it deprives "the accused of basic due process and subjects the well-intentioned prosecutor to claims of ethical misconduct."

Due almost certainly to Vandeveld's resignation on Tuesday charges were dismissed against five Guantanamo detainees.

In a book published late last winter Philip Bobbitt anticipated these controversies. He wrote, "The states of consent must develop rules that define what terrorism is, who is a terrorist, and what states can lawfully do to fight terrorists and terrorism… We must do this because an open society depends upon a government strong enough and foresighted enough to protect individual rights. If we fail to develop these legal standards, we will find we are progressively militarizing the domestic environment without having quite realized that we are at war. And, when a savage mass strike against us does come, we will react in a fury that ultimately does damage to our self-respect, our ideals, and our institutions."

October 20 - 25, 2008

Pandemic Report

Friday, October 24 - A Joint UN and World Bank study finds, "A global analysis of the (avian influenza) situation now in mid to late 2008 indicates fewer outbreaks in poultry, fewer newly infected countries, fewer human cases and fewer deaths compared to the same period in 2006 and 2007. Over 50 of the 61 countries that have experience an H5N1 outbreak, have successfully eliminated the disease. However, the virus remains entrenched in several countries and the threat of further outbreaks of HPAI in poultry (and sporadic cases in humans) persists. The threat of an influenza pandemic remains unchanged. While these findings suggest that HPAI strategies are successful when properly implemented, they also highlight that sustained vigilance and continued investment is needed in both surveillance and capacity to respond to HPAI." The complete report is available in pdf.

Recovery Hard in Haiti

Friday, October 24 - The BBC reports, "More than six weeks after the fourth cyclone in three weeks hit Haiti the relief operation has almost ground to a halt according to a major aid organisation there." (See related essay in previous Monday (P)review)

Earthquake Promised

Friday, October 24 - "When the next big earthquake hits the San Francisco Bay Area, it will be a catastrophe of Hurricane Katrina proportions. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of people will die, and hundreds of thousands will become homeless. Economic losses will be on the order of $200 billion, the vast majority of it uninsured. Outside help will be desperately needed, but difficult to coordinate and execute." More from Wired, and from the BBC, and from the San Jose Mercury-News.

Stormtracking Satellites

Friday, October 24 - "The U.S. government is looking to launch a new and powerful weather satellite that will be better able to pinpoint where hurricanes and tornadoes may strike.The Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite, called GOES-R, will possess technologies not found in weather satellites such as the ability to photograph hurricane storm tracks every 30 seconds and capture images of cloud-to-cloud lightning that can precede tornadoes." More from USA Today.

Domestic Intelligence Considered

Friday, October 24 - The Rand Corporation has released a new report entitled, Reorganizing US Domestic Intelligence. The results of a Capitol Hill briefing are available from Government Executive.

LAPD Chief Warns of Possible Terrorism

Thursday, October 23 - In yesterday's New York Daily News, Los Angeles Police Chief William Bratton warns, "If Bin Laden wants to engineer a late-October surprise in 2008, an attack on a significant American economic target may be one of the most tempting opportunities he has had in recent years. One of his goals on 9/11 was to undermine our markets; he has bragged of what he calls the "success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan." Given our current financial turmoil, Bin Laden may believe that a strike against the U.S.could push our economy over the edge." (Two weeks ago Monday (P)review outlined a simiilar analysis.) Chief Bratton is one of several rumored candidates for Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in an Obama administration. The Daily News oped was co-authored by R.P. Eddy an informal advisor to the Obama campaign and member of the National Security Council under President Clinton.

Missiles Hit School

Thursday, October 23 - A suspected US missile strike has killed at least eight students at a religious school in north-western Pakistan, witnesses say. More from the BBC.

New Airline Boarding Process

Thursday, October 23 - "The Department of Homeland Security will take over responsibility for checking airline passenger names against government watch lists beginning in January, and will require travelers for the first time to provide their full name, birth date and gender as a condition for boarding commercial flights," according to the Washington Post. Writing in the October Atlantic Jeffrey Goldberg says "Airport security in America is a sham—“security theater” designed to make travelers feel better and catch stupid terrorists. Smart ones can get through security with fake boarding passes and all manner of prohibited items..."

Wildfires on Both Coasts

Wednesday, October 22 - Wildfires east of Los Angeles and another south of Atlantic City were burning Tuesday night. According to the San Diego Union Tribune catastrophic results from Southern California wildfires have been avoided only through an unprecedented deployment of the National Guard and other new firefighting resources. The Santa Fe New Mexican makes the case - and explains the complications - for using prescribed burns.

Chertoff Predicts Threat

Wednesday, October 22 - Bloomberg reports that the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, expects an increased risk of terrorist attack in the first six months after the election. "Any period of transition creates a greater vulnerability, meaning there's more likelihood of distraction... You have to be concerned it will create an operational opportunity for terrorists.''

Tanker Truck Explodes

Wednesday, October 22 - The San Francisco Chronicle reports, a "car collided with a big rig on I-880 at 16th Avenue, according to the California Highway Patrol. The truck - carrying 8,600 gallons of gasoline - exploded, and firefighters used water and foam to extinguish a blaze that sent flames shooting more than 50 feet into the air."

Preventing Pandemics

Wednesday, October 22 - Environmental surveillance - long fundamental to public health - requires a more expansive reach to prevent pandemic. "“With epidemics, people have been standing on the shore, waiting for the gusher to hit the ocean,” Dr. Wolfe said, referring to the tidal-wave impact a widespread epidemic could have around the world. “But to prevent epidemics, you have to look at the various little sources that feed into the river," according to the New York Times.

NYT Follows Monday (P)review

Wednesday, October 22 - Late yesterday the New York Times reported much of what Monday (P)review outlined in its weekly essay first published October 19 on the emerging differences in US and British approaches to counterterrorism.

Nuclear Terrorism Unlikely

Tuesday, October 21 - "Brian Michael Jenkins, a longtime terrorism expert with the Rand Corp., says that the threat (of nuclear terrorism) lies more in the realms of Hollywood dramas and terrorist dreams than in reality. There has never been an act of nuclear terrorism, he notes, yet the threat is so potentially catastrophic that it incites fear -- and that fear fulfills a terrorist's primary goal." More from the National Journal.

Powder Scare at Chase Banks

Tuesday, October 21 - "At least 30 letters containing suspicious powder have been mailed to Chase banks in eight cities but so far appear to be harmless," according to the Associated Press.

Brits Adjust Counterterror Stance

Above, the House of Lords during debate.

Last week a British government proposal to lengthen the time a suspected terrorist can be detained without charge was defeated. This is the most recent of several steps suggesting a significant reordering of how best to confront the threat of terrorism. Does the British trend have implications for future US policy?

"On October 13th the second chamber voted by 309 votes to 118 to keep the period for which a terrorist suspect can be detained without charge at 28 days. The government’s counter-terrorism bill, which sought to raise the limit to 42 days, had squeaked through the House of Commons in June. But the unelected Lords, jealous of their independence and the nation’s liberties, were always likely to vote it down," according to The Economist.

Since September 11, 2001 four terrorist attacks - most dramatically the July 7, 2005 London bombings - have been executed in the United Kingdom. Several other planned attacks have been prevented, aborted, or failed. Between 1971 and 2001 the Irish Republican Army carried out dozens of deadly attacks in Britain.

Despite these long-time and more recent experiences of terrorism, Lord Goldsmith, Attorney General from 2001-2007, wrote of the cabinet's bill, "I regard it as not only unnecessary but also counterproductive; and we should fight to protect the liberties the terrorists would take from us, not destroy them ourselves. This proposal is wrong in principle and dangerous in practice."

Last week also saw the British Home Secretary withdraw a proposal that would have allowed police to monitor and collect internet-based communications. Commenting in the reliably conservative Daily Telegraph Alasdair Palmer wrote, "I am not one of those who believes that state officials are inherently evil and so bound to misuse any additional power we give them in order to destroy our freedom and our privacy. And yet: the cumulative extension of state power over the past decade is deeply worrying, even granting that each expansion has been justified. "Mission creep" is inherent in additional state surveillance or arrest powers. They nearly always end up being used for purposes very different to those for which they were granted. As we all now know, local government officials have used powers that were supposed to be used only against suspected terrorists, to spy on ordinary folk whom they suspect of such crimes as not recycling their rubbish correctly or making too much noise."

A former head of MI5, the UK's security service, goes even further. In an interview published Saturday in The Guardian, Stella Rimington calls the response to 9/11 "a huge over-reaction." She says we should "treat terrorism as a crime, and deal with it under the law - not as something extra, that you have to invent new rules to deal with." The Guardian reports Remington hopes the new US President will stop using the phrase "war on terror."

Four years ago Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry made similar comments. They were not well received by the American electorate.

A RAND study completed in the first half of 2008 found, "By analyzing a comprehensive roster of terrorist groups that existed worldwide between 1968 and 2006, the authors found that most groups ended because of operations carried out by local police or intelligence agencies or because they negotiated a settlement with their governments. Military force was rarely the primary reason a terrorist group ended..." Many saw the influence of this study on the new National Defense Strategy (pdf) released in June. (See prior attention by Monday (P)review.)

The 2008 US election has not given significant or sustained attention to the issue of terrorism. The lack of discussion during the campaign increases the flexibility of the new administration in choosing its policy approach.

October 13 -18, 2008

Sulphur Leak Sickens

Friday, October 17 - "Nearly 30 people at a Mulberry phosphate and mining facility were treated this morning after being exposed to a sulfur dioxide gas leak," according to Tampa Bay Online and the Plant City Courier and Tribune.

Moroccan Court Convicts Terrorists

Friday, October 17 - "A Moroccan court has convicted 47 people over a suicide bombing last year at a Casablanca internet cafe, a lawyer said today. A criminal court in Sale, near the capital, Rabat, gave the longest jail term – of 30 years – to Abdelkrim Ougard, said Khalil Idrissi, a lawyer two other defendants. Ougard was accused of forming a criminal gang with the aim of committing terrorist acts, as well as making explosives, theft, forgery and failure to denounce terrorism." More from the Guardian.

Georgia Bombing

Friday, October 17 - The Chattanooga Free Press is providing regular updates on the bombing of a Dalton, Georgia law office at about 9:15 (Eastern) Friday morning.

Canadian Gas Pipeline Attacked

Friday, October 17 - According to the Vancouver Sun, "There could be more pipeline bombings after the second attack in a week was discovered Thursday on a sour gas pipeline near Dawson Creek..."

Arrests for Financing Terrorism

Thursday, October 16 - "Spanish police have arrested eight people suspected of aiding terrorists implicated in the 2004 Madrid bombings. Officers raided addresses in Barcelona, Madrid and the southern Andalucia region in the early hours of this morning. Police say the eight people arrested are all of Moroccan origin and are suspected of recruiting and funding al-Qaeda," according to Euronews.

CEOs Not Involved in Cybersecurity

Wednesday, October 15 - "With infrastructure like electric grids, water, and telecommunications largely in the hands on private industry, it is up to the leaders in those sectors to work with government to keep the country safe--yet the participation of chief executives in such efforts has steadily waned since September 11, 2001, according to a working group of the National Infrastructure Advisory Council," according to CNET.

Guard Planes Not Equipped for Fire

Wednesday, October 15 - "Despite pressure from elected officials and the military, the Bush administration has yet to equip some California National Guard planes for firefighting — a delay that could have grave implications during the worst of the wildfire season," according to the Associated Press.

Hurricane Hits Virgin Islands

Wednesday, October 15 - "Omar strengthened into a fierce Category 3 hurricane late Wednesday as it pummeled St. Croix with heavy rains and winds, sinking boats in the harbor, knocking down trees and forcing workers to shut down a major oil refinery," according to the Associated Press. The refinery is the second largest in the Western hemisphere processing about 500,000 barrels per day.

Three Fires Raging in California

Tuesday, October 14 - "Powerful gusts stoked three major wildfires in Southern California early Tuesday that have charred nearly 12,000 acres, destroyed dozens of homes and forced thousands of people to evacuate neighborhoods in suburban Los Angeles and northern San Diego County," according to the Associated Press. Several stories and continuing coverage is available from the Los Angeles Times.

Brits Reject Long-Detentions Without Charge

Tuesday, October 14 - The British government was forced to drop controversial plans to allow terrorism suspects to be detained for up to six weeks without charge after the measure was defeated by Britain's upper house of parliament, the House of Lords, according to Deutche Weld.

Economic Implosion: Tempting Target?

Satellite image of the Ras Tanura facility.

In a recently released video (pdf) al Qaeda takes credit for US economic turmoil. The terrorist group's American-born spokesman claims, "The enemies of Islam are facing a crushing defeat, which is beginning to manifest itself in the expanding crisis their economy is experiencing... A crisis whose primary cause, in addition to the abortive and unsustainable crusades they are waging in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq, is their turning their backs on Allah's revealed laws, which forbid interest-bearing transactions, exploitation, greed and injustice in all its forms."

While the immediate claim is overstated, undermining the US economy has long been an explicit objective of al-Qaeda's strategy. Targeting the World Trade Center towers was both a symbolic and practical means of economic warfare.

Other economic targets include the 2002 attack on the Limburg a French supertanker, a credible 2004 plot to target US banks and financial institutions, and the increasing threat of economic disruption through cyberattacks.

But what many find the most chilling prospect is the targeting of Saudi oil infrastructure. Several failed attacks and an accumulation of captured terrorist documents demonstrate the intention to strike at what Osama bin Laden has called, "the provision line and the feeding to the artery of the life of the crusader nation."

In May 2004 an attack on the Saudi oil facility in Yanbu killed two Americans, two Britons, and an Australian.

In February 2006 the Saudi oil processing facility at Abqaiq was attacked with two bomb-laden vehicles and an unconfirmed number of individuals. The operation can be viewed as a tactical probe as much as an unsuccessful attack.

The biggest target is almost certainly the Saudi port of Ras Tanura, the world's largest offshore oil loading facility. Nearly 7/8's of all Saudi oil flows through this single port. It is no coincidence that the US Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain less than 50 miles southeast of Ras Tanura.

In late August an accidental fire at Ras Tanura reduced refined outputs. An attack - successful or not - would cause a spike in oil prices. Any sustained curtailment of oil shipments through Ras Tanura would almost certainly send shock waves through an energy hungry economic system.

In a new book, The Plan: How to Rescue Society the Day the Oil Stops - or the Day Before, Edwin Black describes our vulnerability, "...if one, two or all of three vital chokepoints are hit by terrorists flying hijacked 747s or Iranian military action - the Abqaiq processing plant, the Ras Tanura terminal in Saudi Arabia, or the two-mile per sea lane Strait of Hormuz - as much as 40% of all seaborne oil will be stopped, as much as 18% of all global supply will be interrupted, and from 12 to 20% of the US supply will be cut off. Estimates are the US shortfall could be even higher. Repeat attacks could prolong the crisis for many months, which is exactly what either al-Qaida or Iranian terrorists have promised."

If plans are in place for such an attack, the economic turmoil of the last few weeks makes it even more tempting to give the go-order now.