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The third anniversary of Katrina arrived with Louisiana and Mississippi in Gustav's bulls-eye. Since 2005 over $50 billion in federal funding has been spent on recovery and preparedness. Unfortunately, later today the strategic choices made (and any failures to choose) will be tested.
Katrina was the test for lessons learned from Hurricane Betsy. On September 9, 1965 Betsy slammed into New Orleans with 110 mile per hour winds. Levees failed, the Lower 9th Ward flooded, and it took ten days for the waters to recede sufficiently for over 164,000 households to return. There were at least 75 deaths. Betsy was the first US hurricane to cause over a billion dollars in damages.
During the next four decades additional billions would be spent to prevent a recurrence of such a result. Katrina exposed an anemic return on investment. In recent days federal officials have been quick to promise a better result when Gustav makes landfall, projected for very early Tuesday. “What we’re seeing is a totally different response than what we had in Katrina,” said Federal Emergency Management Agency director David Paulison. (More from WDSU)
There is evidence that the combined local, state, and federal response will, in fact, be more substantial, more coordinated, and probably more effective than was the case with Katrina. (See the Nola Hurricane Center) What is not yet clear is the effectiveness of risk management and mitigation choices made over the last three years.
In June the General Accountability Office told the House Homeland Security Committee that "three key challenges exist to applying risk management to homeland security: improving risk communication, political obstacles to risk-based resource allocation, and a lack of strategic thinking about managing homeland security risks." All of these challenges have been evident in Post-Katrina decision-making.
By reading between the lines, the GAO report makes clear that the three challenges are tightly related. Strategic thinking, among other things, requires making tough choices regarding priorities. These priorities should guide risk-based resource allocation. But because the public has often not been involved in priority setting - or cannot reach agreement on priorities - it is not possible to implement a consistent risk-based approach. Resilience depends on public engagement.
GAO testimony noted, "Like the private sector, the government has to make choices about which risks to protect against—since it cannot protect the nation against all hazards. Unlike the private sector, the government has a wide responsibility for preparing for, responding to, and recovering from all acts of terrorism and natural or manmade disasters and is accountable to the public for the investment decisions it makes." Until the public is able and willing to support a strategic risk-based approach, the challenges are unlikely to be resolved.
The level of public involvement in hurricane preparedness since Katrina is a matter of controversy. The August update of the New Orleans Index tends to highlight how strong public involvement has been the foundation of progress. But Oxfam's report, Mirror on America: How the state of Gulf Coast recovery reflects on us all is critical of how the public has been excluded from key decisions.
Gustav and his aftermath may resolve the controvery over the next few days.
The third anniversary of Katrina arrived with Louisiana and Mississippi in Gustav's bulls-eye. Since 2005 over $50 billion in federal funding has been spent on recovery and preparedness. Unfortunately, later today the strategic choices made (and any failures to choose) will be tested.
Katrina was the test for lessons learned from Hurricane Betsy. On September 9, 1965 Betsy slammed into New Orleans with 110 mile per hour winds. Levees failed, the Lower 9th Ward flooded, and it took ten days for the waters to recede sufficiently for over 164,000 households to return. There were at least 75 deaths. Betsy was the first US hurricane to cause over a billion dollars in damages.
During the next four decades additional billions would be spent to prevent a recurrence of such a result. Katrina exposed an anemic return on investment. In recent days federal officials have been quick to promise a better result when Gustav makes landfall, projected for very early Tuesday. “What we’re seeing is a totally different response than what we had in Katrina,” said Federal Emergency Management Agency director David Paulison. (More from WDSU)
There is evidence that the combined local, state, and federal response will, in fact, be more substantial, more coordinated, and probably more effective than was the case with Katrina. (See the Nola Hurricane Center) What is not yet clear is the effectiveness of risk management and mitigation choices made over the last three years.
In June the General Accountability Office told the House Homeland Security Committee that "three key challenges exist to applying risk management to homeland security: improving risk communication, political obstacles to risk-based resource allocation, and a lack of strategic thinking about managing homeland security risks." All of these challenges have been evident in Post-Katrina decision-making.
By reading between the lines, the GAO report makes clear that the three challenges are tightly related. Strategic thinking, among other things, requires making tough choices regarding priorities. These priorities should guide risk-based resource allocation. But because the public has often not been involved in priority setting - or cannot reach agreement on priorities - it is not possible to implement a consistent risk-based approach. Resilience depends on public engagement.
GAO testimony noted, "Like the private sector, the government has to make choices about which risks to protect against—since it cannot protect the nation against all hazards. Unlike the private sector, the government has a wide responsibility for preparing for, responding to, and recovering from all acts of terrorism and natural or manmade disasters and is accountable to the public for the investment decisions it makes." Until the public is able and willing to support a strategic risk-based approach, the challenges are unlikely to be resolved.
The level of public involvement in hurricane preparedness since Katrina is a matter of controversy. The August update of the New Orleans Index tends to highlight how strong public involvement has been the foundation of progress. But Oxfam's report, Mirror on America: How the state of Gulf Coast recovery reflects on us all is critical of how the public has been excluded from key decisions.
Gustav and his aftermath may resolve the controvery over the next few days.
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1 comment:
It will be fascinating to watch the second and third order strategic political effects associated with Gustav as the RNC gears up for its convention. Can a major political party been seen appearing to celebrate anything when such a potential national disaster looms? How will the party and its candidate react? How should they?
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