Terrorists Target Elections

A video capture of a security image from the Madrid bombing on March 11, 2004. Distributed by El Pais.

This week the U.S. political season begins in earnest with the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Between now and the inauguration (January 20) the potential for terrorism will amplify every knock in the night.

Last week white powder threats were aimed at John McCain and Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Warnings were given regarding the possible use of "cloned" vehicles to penetrate convention security. In the background very real terrorist bombs exploded in Algeria and Pakistan and a misguided US air strike allegedly killed dozens of Afghan civilians.

Over the summer several Washington insiders - with means and reason to know - have talked of a terrorist attack on the US in the "next eight months." The absence of conditionals has been striking. All of these individuals have signaled an attack as a matter of when not if.

Similar concerns preceded the 2004 elections. There was even talk of postponing the vote. As it turned out the terrorist intervention was limited to a bin-Ladin speech emphasizing a voter's responsibility: "I tell you in truth, that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida. No. Your security is in your own hands."

The most compelling evidence that al-Qaeda may time its attacks to effect an election is the March 11, 2004 Madrid train bombings that some argue changed the results of the general election three days later.

In a recent Washington Post editorial Brookings Institution expert Bruce Riedel wrote, "If it happened in Spain, it can happen here. The Madrid bombings reveal the close attention al-Qaeda pays to the electoral cycles in Western democracies. Osama bin Laden, the perpetrator of one of the greatest mass murders in U.S. history, is certain to want to have his say in our elections this fall... The record is clear: Al-Qaeda has developed a predictable pattern of behavior over the decade since it declared war on the United States that provides important insights into what we can expect in the next six months. Brace yourselves."

American voters might be better braced by a fuller discussion of the issue prior to an attack or another last minute video. In an August 20 speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars President Bush emphasized a continuing Global War on Terror. In the most recent Washington Post-ABC poll of registered voters the economy was the only priority issue producing a double digit response. Terrorism was not perceived to be important enough for the pollsters to even list. Or maybe terrorism was covered by "an unexpected major crisis."

Unexpected?