Louisiana Refinery Fire
Friday, October 31 - A three-alarm fire sent up a large plume of black smoke over a Shreveport refinery Thursday after area residents reported an explosion. No injuries were reported, according to the Associated Press. The refinery has a history of OSHA fines, according to the Shreveport Times.
President Praises FBI
Friday, October 31 - President George W. Bush told a graduating class at the FBI Academy at Quantico Marine Corps Base yesterday that the fact that a major terrorist attack has not hit U.S. soil since Sept. 11, 2001, is "not an accident." Some are suggesting the anti-terrorist focus will only intensify in the remaining months of a Bush Presidency.
Jellyfish Attack Nuclear Plant
Thursday, October 30 - The Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Station, near San Luis Obispo, California, was shut down by an attack of Jellyfish. Infestations of Jellyfish are increasingly common.
Heavy Snow
Wednesday, October 29 - A foot or more of lake effect snow closed schools, cut power, and snarled traffic across Northern New York. The same system brought measureable snow as far south as the Carolina mountains.
Canadian Trial Convicts of Terrorism
Wednesday, October 29 - "A Canadian software developer who designed and built a remote-control device meant to trigger bomb blasts was found guilty of financing and facilitating terrorism," according to the Toronto Star.
Federal Judge Defines Enemy Combatant
Tuesday, October 28 - Al-Qaida or Taliban supporters who directly assisted in hostile acts against the United States or its allies can be held without charges as enemy combatants, a federal judge ruled Monday. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Richard J. Leon takes a first step toward resolving the fate of some of the hundreds of men — many who have been held for years without charges — detained as terror suspects at the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. (More from the Associated Press.)
Candidates Contrasted
Tuesday, October 28 - Newsday has published a comparison of the Obama and McCain positions on Homeland Security.
Skinheads Accused of Killing Spree Plot
Tuesday, October 28 - Two Tennessee residents have been arrested for conspiracy and weapons charges in an alleged plan to engage in robbery, mass murder, and an attempted assassination of Barack Obama. More from Reuters.
Which Model Gitmo or Ft. Dix?
Above is a sketch of the military commission trial of Salim Hamdan.
As the trial of five men accused of planning to attack Ft. Dix got underway last week, the New York Times reported the White House will let the next President decide what to do with those detained at Guantanamo Bay. The coincidence highlights two very different angles on counterterrorism.
"The administration is now proceeding on the assumption that Guantánamo will remain open not only for the rest of Bush's presidency but also well beyond, the officials said, as the site for military tribunals of those facing charges for terrorism-related crimes and for the long prison sentences that could follow convictions," the Times reported on October 20.
"The new president will gnash his teeth and beat his head against the wall when he realizes how complicated it is to close Guantánamo," the Times quoted an unnamed administration official as saying.
Part of the issue is the continued lack of legal consensus on a definition for enemy combatant. On Wednesday Federal Judge Richard J. Leon, presiding over a habeas corpus hearing for six Gitmo detainees, complained, ""I don't understand, I really don't, how the Supreme Court made the decision it made and left that question open. . . .I don't understand how the Congress could let it go this long without resolving" it." (More from the Boston Globe)
No such controversy complicates the trial of the Ft. Dix defendants. The men are charged with attempted murder, conspiracy to murder uniformed military personnel, and weapons offenses.
"Their motive was to defend Islam. Their inspiration was al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden. Their intent was to kill members of the United States armed services," Deputy U.S. Attorney William Fitzpatrick told the jurors according to the Associated Press.
According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, "Six suspects were originally charged in the Fort Dix case. One, Agron Abdullahu, 25, a baker in a ShopRite store near Williamstown (NJ), pleaded guilty to a conspiracy charge, admitting he had given weapons to three of the other defendants. He was sentenced to 20 months in prison."
"The five other defendants, charged with the more serious offense of plotting to kill soldiers, are brothers Dritan Duka, 29, Shain Duka, 27, and Eljvir Duka, 24; Mohamad Shnewer, 23; and Serdar Tatar, 24. The Dukas and Shnewer are from Cherry Hill. Tatar is a former Cherry Hill resident who was living in Philadelphia when he and the others were arrested."
"Shnewer, who was born in Jordan, is a U.S. citizen. Tatar, born in Turkey, is a legal resident immigrant. The Duka brothers, ethnic Albanians from what is now Macedonia, have been living in the country illegally since arriving as young children by way of Mexico in the late 1980s."
The legal action taken against the five is "a type of pre-emptive prosecution that has grown more common in U.S. terrorism cases since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks," according to the Associated Press. "Prosecutors are trying to prove not only that they arrested the right men, but that the suspects were planning a crime. Defense lawyers are likely to argue that while their clients may have spoken ill of America and even rooted for terrorists, that does not mean they intended to kill soldiers. They will also question the character, motives and role of two paid government informants who made hundreds of hours of secret recordings that form the bulk of the evidence in the trial."
The trials of alleged terrorists at Guantanamo have been slow to proceed as wrangling continues over their legal status and the sufficiency of due process. In August seven years after Gitmo received its first inmates, Salim Ahmed Hamdan was the first one convicted. The verdict was that he had provided material support for terrorism.
At least four military prosecutors have resigned their Guantanamo cases. According to the Los Angeles Times in September Lt. Col. Darrel J. Vandeveld explained his resignation being the result of a military commissions process so dysfunctional that it deprives "the accused of basic due process and subjects the well-intentioned prosecutor to claims of ethical misconduct."
Due almost certainly to Vandeveld's resignation on Tuesday charges were dismissed against five Guantanamo detainees.
In a book published late last winter Philip Bobbitt anticipated these controversies. He wrote, "The states of consent must develop rules that define what terrorism is, who is a terrorist, and what states can lawfully do to fight terrorists and terrorism… We must do this because an open society depends upon a government strong enough and foresighted enough to protect individual rights. If we fail to develop these legal standards, we will find we are progressively militarizing the domestic environment without having quite realized that we are at war. And, when a savage mass strike against us does come, we will react in a fury that ultimately does damage to our self-respect, our ideals, and our institutions."
October 20 - 25, 2008
Pandemic Report
Friday, October 24 - A Joint UN and World Bank study finds, "A global analysis of the (avian influenza) situation now in mid to late 2008 indicates fewer outbreaks in poultry, fewer newly infected countries, fewer human cases and fewer deaths compared to the same period in 2006 and 2007. Over 50 of the 61 countries that have experience an H5N1 outbreak, have successfully eliminated the disease. However, the virus remains entrenched in several countries and the threat of further outbreaks of HPAI in poultry (and sporadic cases in humans) persists. The threat of an influenza pandemic remains unchanged. While these findings suggest that HPAI strategies are successful when properly implemented, they also highlight that sustained vigilance and continued investment is needed in both surveillance and capacity to respond to HPAI." The complete report is available in pdf.
Recovery Hard in Haiti
Friday, October 24 - The BBC reports, "More than six weeks after the fourth cyclone in three weeks hit Haiti the relief operation has almost ground to a halt according to a major aid organisation there." (See related essay in previous Monday (P)review)
Earthquake Promised
Friday, October 24 - "When the next big earthquake hits the San Francisco Bay Area, it will be a catastrophe of Hurricane Katrina proportions. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of people will die, and hundreds of thousands will become homeless. Economic losses will be on the order of $200 billion, the vast majority of it uninsured. Outside help will be desperately needed, but difficult to coordinate and execute." More from Wired, and from the BBC, and from the San Jose Mercury-News.
Stormtracking Satellites
Friday, October 24 - "The U.S. government is looking to launch a new and powerful weather satellite that will be better able to pinpoint where hurricanes and tornadoes may strike.The Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite, called GOES-R, will possess technologies not found in weather satellites such as the ability to photograph hurricane storm tracks every 30 seconds and capture images of cloud-to-cloud lightning that can precede tornadoes." More from USA Today.
Domestic Intelligence Considered
Friday, October 24 - The Rand Corporation has released a new report entitled, Reorganizing US Domestic Intelligence. The results of a Capitol Hill briefing are available from Government Executive.
LAPD Chief Warns of Possible Terrorism
Thursday, October 23 - In yesterday's New York Daily News, Los Angeles Police Chief William Bratton warns, "If Bin Laden wants to engineer a late-October surprise in 2008, an attack on a significant American economic target may be one of the most tempting opportunities he has had in recent years. One of his goals on 9/11 was to undermine our markets; he has bragged of what he calls the "success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan." Given our current financial turmoil, Bin Laden may believe that a strike against the U.S.could push our economy over the edge." (Two weeks ago Monday (P)review outlined a simiilar analysis.) Chief Bratton is one of several rumored candidates for Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in an Obama administration. The Daily News oped was co-authored by R.P. Eddy an informal advisor to the Obama campaign and member of the National Security Council under President Clinton.
Missiles Hit School
Thursday, October 23 - A suspected US missile strike has killed at least eight students at a religious school in north-western Pakistan, witnesses say. More from the BBC.
New Airline Boarding Process
Thursday, October 23 - "The Department of Homeland Security will take over responsibility for checking airline passenger names against government watch lists beginning in January, and will require travelers for the first time to provide their full name, birth date and gender as a condition for boarding commercial flights," according to the Washington Post. Writing in the October Atlantic Jeffrey Goldberg says "Airport security in America is a sham—“security theater” designed to make travelers feel better and catch stupid terrorists. Smart ones can get through security with fake boarding passes and all manner of prohibited items..."
Wildfires on Both Coasts
Wednesday, October 22 - Wildfires east of Los Angeles and another south of Atlantic City were burning Tuesday night. According to the San Diego Union Tribune catastrophic results from Southern California wildfires have been avoided only through an unprecedented deployment of the National Guard and other new firefighting resources. The Santa Fe New Mexican makes the case - and explains the complications - for using prescribed burns.
Chertoff Predicts Threat
Wednesday, October 22 - Bloomberg reports that the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, expects an increased risk of terrorist attack in the first six months after the election. "Any period of transition creates a greater vulnerability, meaning there's more likelihood of distraction... You have to be concerned it will create an operational opportunity for terrorists.''
Tanker Truck Explodes
Wednesday, October 22 - The San Francisco Chronicle reports, a "car collided with a big rig on I-880 at 16th Avenue, according to the California Highway Patrol. The truck - carrying 8,600 gallons of gasoline - exploded, and firefighters used water and foam to extinguish a blaze that sent flames shooting more than 50 feet into the air."
Preventing Pandemics
Wednesday, October 22 - Environmental surveillance - long fundamental to public health - requires a more expansive reach to prevent pandemic. "“With epidemics, people have been standing on the shore, waiting for the gusher to hit the ocean,” Dr. Wolfe said, referring to the tidal-wave impact a widespread epidemic could have around the world. “But to prevent epidemics, you have to look at the various little sources that feed into the river," according to the New York Times.
NYT Follows Monday (P)review
Wednesday, October 22 - Late yesterday the New York Times reported much of what Monday (P)review outlined in its weekly essay first published October 19 on the emerging differences in US and British approaches to counterterrorism.
Nuclear Terrorism Unlikely
Tuesday, October 21 - "Brian Michael Jenkins, a longtime terrorism expert with the Rand Corp., says that the threat (of nuclear terrorism) lies more in the realms of Hollywood dramas and terrorist dreams than in reality. There has never been an act of nuclear terrorism, he notes, yet the threat is so potentially catastrophic that it incites fear -- and that fear fulfills a terrorist's primary goal." More from the National Journal.
Powder Scare at Chase Banks
Tuesday, October 21 - "At least 30 letters containing suspicious powder have been mailed to Chase banks in eight cities but so far appear to be harmless," according to the Associated Press.
Friday, October 24 - A Joint UN and World Bank study finds, "A global analysis of the (avian influenza) situation now in mid to late 2008 indicates fewer outbreaks in poultry, fewer newly infected countries, fewer human cases and fewer deaths compared to the same period in 2006 and 2007. Over 50 of the 61 countries that have experience an H5N1 outbreak, have successfully eliminated the disease. However, the virus remains entrenched in several countries and the threat of further outbreaks of HPAI in poultry (and sporadic cases in humans) persists. The threat of an influenza pandemic remains unchanged. While these findings suggest that HPAI strategies are successful when properly implemented, they also highlight that sustained vigilance and continued investment is needed in both surveillance and capacity to respond to HPAI." The complete report is available in pdf.
Recovery Hard in Haiti
Friday, October 24 - The BBC reports, "More than six weeks after the fourth cyclone in three weeks hit Haiti the relief operation has almost ground to a halt according to a major aid organisation there." (See related essay in previous Monday (P)review)
Earthquake Promised
Friday, October 24 - "When the next big earthquake hits the San Francisco Bay Area, it will be a catastrophe of Hurricane Katrina proportions. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of people will die, and hundreds of thousands will become homeless. Economic losses will be on the order of $200 billion, the vast majority of it uninsured. Outside help will be desperately needed, but difficult to coordinate and execute." More from Wired, and from the BBC, and from the San Jose Mercury-News.
Stormtracking Satellites
Friday, October 24 - "The U.S. government is looking to launch a new and powerful weather satellite that will be better able to pinpoint where hurricanes and tornadoes may strike.The Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite, called GOES-R, will possess technologies not found in weather satellites such as the ability to photograph hurricane storm tracks every 30 seconds and capture images of cloud-to-cloud lightning that can precede tornadoes." More from USA Today.
Domestic Intelligence Considered
Friday, October 24 - The Rand Corporation has released a new report entitled, Reorganizing US Domestic Intelligence. The results of a Capitol Hill briefing are available from Government Executive.
LAPD Chief Warns of Possible Terrorism
Thursday, October 23 - In yesterday's New York Daily News, Los Angeles Police Chief William Bratton warns, "If Bin Laden wants to engineer a late-October surprise in 2008, an attack on a significant American economic target may be one of the most tempting opportunities he has had in recent years. One of his goals on 9/11 was to undermine our markets; he has bragged of what he calls the "success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan." Given our current financial turmoil, Bin Laden may believe that a strike against the U.S.could push our economy over the edge." (Two weeks ago Monday (P)review outlined a simiilar analysis.) Chief Bratton is one of several rumored candidates for Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in an Obama administration. The Daily News oped was co-authored by R.P. Eddy an informal advisor to the Obama campaign and member of the National Security Council under President Clinton.
Missiles Hit School
Thursday, October 23 - A suspected US missile strike has killed at least eight students at a religious school in north-western Pakistan, witnesses say. More from the BBC.
New Airline Boarding Process
Thursday, October 23 - "The Department of Homeland Security will take over responsibility for checking airline passenger names against government watch lists beginning in January, and will require travelers for the first time to provide their full name, birth date and gender as a condition for boarding commercial flights," according to the Washington Post. Writing in the October Atlantic Jeffrey Goldberg says "Airport security in America is a sham—“security theater” designed to make travelers feel better and catch stupid terrorists. Smart ones can get through security with fake boarding passes and all manner of prohibited items..."
Wildfires on Both Coasts
Wednesday, October 22 - Wildfires east of Los Angeles and another south of Atlantic City were burning Tuesday night. According to the San Diego Union Tribune catastrophic results from Southern California wildfires have been avoided only through an unprecedented deployment of the National Guard and other new firefighting resources. The Santa Fe New Mexican makes the case - and explains the complications - for using prescribed burns.
Chertoff Predicts Threat
Wednesday, October 22 - Bloomberg reports that the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, expects an increased risk of terrorist attack in the first six months after the election. "Any period of transition creates a greater vulnerability, meaning there's more likelihood of distraction... You have to be concerned it will create an operational opportunity for terrorists.''
Tanker Truck Explodes
Wednesday, October 22 - The San Francisco Chronicle reports, a "car collided with a big rig on I-880 at 16th Avenue, according to the California Highway Patrol. The truck - carrying 8,600 gallons of gasoline - exploded, and firefighters used water and foam to extinguish a blaze that sent flames shooting more than 50 feet into the air."
Preventing Pandemics
Wednesday, October 22 - Environmental surveillance - long fundamental to public health - requires a more expansive reach to prevent pandemic. "“With epidemics, people have been standing on the shore, waiting for the gusher to hit the ocean,” Dr. Wolfe said, referring to the tidal-wave impact a widespread epidemic could have around the world. “But to prevent epidemics, you have to look at the various little sources that feed into the river," according to the New York Times.
NYT Follows Monday (P)review
Wednesday, October 22 - Late yesterday the New York Times reported much of what Monday (P)review outlined in its weekly essay first published October 19 on the emerging differences in US and British approaches to counterterrorism.
Nuclear Terrorism Unlikely
Tuesday, October 21 - "Brian Michael Jenkins, a longtime terrorism expert with the Rand Corp., says that the threat (of nuclear terrorism) lies more in the realms of Hollywood dramas and terrorist dreams than in reality. There has never been an act of nuclear terrorism, he notes, yet the threat is so potentially catastrophic that it incites fear -- and that fear fulfills a terrorist's primary goal." More from the National Journal.
Powder Scare at Chase Banks
Tuesday, October 21 - "At least 30 letters containing suspicious powder have been mailed to Chase banks in eight cities but so far appear to be harmless," according to the Associated Press.
Brits Adjust Counterterror Stance
Above, the House of Lords during debate.
Last week a British government proposal to lengthen the time a suspected terrorist can be detained without charge was defeated. This is the most recent of several steps suggesting a significant reordering of how best to confront the threat of terrorism. Does the British trend have implications for future US policy?
"On October 13th the second chamber voted by 309 votes to 118 to keep the period for which a terrorist suspect can be detained without charge at 28 days. The government’s counter-terrorism bill, which sought to raise the limit to 42 days, had squeaked through the House of Commons in June. But the unelected Lords, jealous of their independence and the nation’s liberties, were always likely to vote it down," according to The Economist.
Since September 11, 2001 four terrorist attacks - most dramatically the July 7, 2005 London bombings - have been executed in the United Kingdom. Several other planned attacks have been prevented, aborted, or failed. Between 1971 and 2001 the Irish Republican Army carried out dozens of deadly attacks in Britain.
Despite these long-time and more recent experiences of terrorism, Lord Goldsmith, Attorney General from 2001-2007, wrote of the cabinet's bill, "I regard it as not only unnecessary but also counterproductive; and we should fight to protect the liberties the terrorists would take from us, not destroy them ourselves. This proposal is wrong in principle and dangerous in practice."
Last week also saw the British Home Secretary withdraw a proposal that would have allowed police to monitor and collect internet-based communications. Commenting in the reliably conservative Daily Telegraph Alasdair Palmer wrote, "I am not one of those who believes that state officials are inherently evil and so bound to misuse any additional power we give them in order to destroy our freedom and our privacy. And yet: the cumulative extension of state power over the past decade is deeply worrying, even granting that each expansion has been justified. "Mission creep" is inherent in additional state surveillance or arrest powers. They nearly always end up being used for purposes very different to those for which they were granted. As we all now know, local government officials have used powers that were supposed to be used only against suspected terrorists, to spy on ordinary folk whom they suspect of such crimes as not recycling their rubbish correctly or making too much noise."
A former head of MI5, the UK's security service, goes even further. In an interview published Saturday in The Guardian, Stella Rimington calls the response to 9/11 "a huge over-reaction." She says we should "treat terrorism as a crime, and deal with it under the law - not as something extra, that you have to invent new rules to deal with." The Guardian reports Remington hopes the new US President will stop using the phrase "war on terror."
Four years ago Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry made similar comments. They were not well received by the American electorate.
A RAND study completed in the first half of 2008 found, "By analyzing a comprehensive roster of terrorist groups that existed worldwide between 1968 and 2006, the authors found that most groups ended because of operations carried out by local police or intelligence agencies or because they negotiated a settlement with their governments. Military force was rarely the primary reason a terrorist group ended..." Many saw the influence of this study on the new National Defense Strategy (pdf) released in June. (See prior attention by Monday (P)review.)
The 2008 US election has not given significant or sustained attention to the issue of terrorism. The lack of discussion during the campaign increases the flexibility of the new administration in choosing its policy approach.
"On October 13th the second chamber voted by 309 votes to 118 to keep the period for which a terrorist suspect can be detained without charge at 28 days. The government’s counter-terrorism bill, which sought to raise the limit to 42 days, had squeaked through the House of Commons in June. But the unelected Lords, jealous of their independence and the nation’s liberties, were always likely to vote it down," according to The Economist.
Since September 11, 2001 four terrorist attacks - most dramatically the July 7, 2005 London bombings - have been executed in the United Kingdom. Several other planned attacks have been prevented, aborted, or failed. Between 1971 and 2001 the Irish Republican Army carried out dozens of deadly attacks in Britain.
Despite these long-time and more recent experiences of terrorism, Lord Goldsmith, Attorney General from 2001-2007, wrote of the cabinet's bill, "I regard it as not only unnecessary but also counterproductive; and we should fight to protect the liberties the terrorists would take from us, not destroy them ourselves. This proposal is wrong in principle and dangerous in practice."
Last week also saw the British Home Secretary withdraw a proposal that would have allowed police to monitor and collect internet-based communications. Commenting in the reliably conservative Daily Telegraph Alasdair Palmer wrote, "I am not one of those who believes that state officials are inherently evil and so bound to misuse any additional power we give them in order to destroy our freedom and our privacy. And yet: the cumulative extension of state power over the past decade is deeply worrying, even granting that each expansion has been justified. "Mission creep" is inherent in additional state surveillance or arrest powers. They nearly always end up being used for purposes very different to those for which they were granted. As we all now know, local government officials have used powers that were supposed to be used only against suspected terrorists, to spy on ordinary folk whom they suspect of such crimes as not recycling their rubbish correctly or making too much noise."
A former head of MI5, the UK's security service, goes even further. In an interview published Saturday in The Guardian, Stella Rimington calls the response to 9/11 "a huge over-reaction." She says we should "treat terrorism as a crime, and deal with it under the law - not as something extra, that you have to invent new rules to deal with." The Guardian reports Remington hopes the new US President will stop using the phrase "war on terror."
Four years ago Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry made similar comments. They were not well received by the American electorate.
A RAND study completed in the first half of 2008 found, "By analyzing a comprehensive roster of terrorist groups that existed worldwide between 1968 and 2006, the authors found that most groups ended because of operations carried out by local police or intelligence agencies or because they negotiated a settlement with their governments. Military force was rarely the primary reason a terrorist group ended..." Many saw the influence of this study on the new National Defense Strategy (pdf) released in June. (See prior attention by Monday (P)review.)
The 2008 US election has not given significant or sustained attention to the issue of terrorism. The lack of discussion during the campaign increases the flexibility of the new administration in choosing its policy approach.
October 13 -18, 2008
Sulphur Leak Sickens
Friday, October 17 - "Nearly 30 people at a Mulberry phosphate and mining facility were treated this morning after being exposed to a sulfur dioxide gas leak," according to Tampa Bay Online and the Plant City Courier and Tribune.
Moroccan Court Convicts Terrorists
Friday, October 17 - "A Moroccan court has convicted 47 people over a suicide bombing last year at a Casablanca internet cafe, a lawyer said today. A criminal court in Sale, near the capital, Rabat, gave the longest jail term – of 30 years – to Abdelkrim Ougard, said Khalil Idrissi, a lawyer two other defendants. Ougard was accused of forming a criminal gang with the aim of committing terrorist acts, as well as making explosives, theft, forgery and failure to denounce terrorism." More from the Guardian.
Georgia Bombing
Friday, October 17 - The Chattanooga Free Press is providing regular updates on the bombing of a Dalton, Georgia law office at about 9:15 (Eastern) Friday morning.
Canadian Gas Pipeline Attacked
Friday, October 17 - According to the Vancouver Sun, "There could be more pipeline bombings after the second attack in a week was discovered Thursday on a sour gas pipeline near Dawson Creek..."
Arrests for Financing Terrorism
Thursday, October 16 - "Spanish police have arrested eight people suspected of aiding terrorists implicated in the 2004 Madrid bombings. Officers raided addresses in Barcelona, Madrid and the southern Andalucia region in the early hours of this morning. Police say the eight people arrested are all of Moroccan origin and are suspected of recruiting and funding al-Qaeda," according to Euronews.
CEOs Not Involved in Cybersecurity
Wednesday, October 15 - "With infrastructure like electric grids, water, and telecommunications largely in the hands on private industry, it is up to the leaders in those sectors to work with government to keep the country safe--yet the participation of chief executives in such efforts has steadily waned since September 11, 2001, according to a working group of the National Infrastructure Advisory Council," according to CNET.
Guard Planes Not Equipped for Fire
Wednesday, October 15 - "Despite pressure from elected officials and the military, the Bush administration has yet to equip some California National Guard planes for firefighting — a delay that could have grave implications during the worst of the wildfire season," according to the Associated Press.
Hurricane Hits Virgin Islands
Wednesday, October 15 - "Omar strengthened into a fierce Category 3 hurricane late Wednesday as it pummeled St. Croix with heavy rains and winds, sinking boats in the harbor, knocking down trees and forcing workers to shut down a major oil refinery," according to the Associated Press. The refinery is the second largest in the Western hemisphere processing about 500,000 barrels per day.
Three Fires Raging in California
Tuesday, October 14 - "Powerful gusts stoked three major wildfires in Southern California early Tuesday that have charred nearly 12,000 acres, destroyed dozens of homes and forced thousands of people to evacuate neighborhoods in suburban Los Angeles and northern San Diego County," according to the Associated Press. Several stories and continuing coverage is available from the Los Angeles Times.
Brits Reject Long-Detentions Without Charge
Tuesday, October 14 - The British government was forced to drop controversial plans to allow terrorism suspects to be detained for up to six weeks without charge after the measure was defeated by Britain's upper house of parliament, the House of Lords, according to Deutche Weld.
Friday, October 17 - "Nearly 30 people at a Mulberry phosphate and mining facility were treated this morning after being exposed to a sulfur dioxide gas leak," according to Tampa Bay Online and the Plant City Courier and Tribune.
Moroccan Court Convicts Terrorists
Friday, October 17 - "A Moroccan court has convicted 47 people over a suicide bombing last year at a Casablanca internet cafe, a lawyer said today. A criminal court in Sale, near the capital, Rabat, gave the longest jail term – of 30 years – to Abdelkrim Ougard, said Khalil Idrissi, a lawyer two other defendants. Ougard was accused of forming a criminal gang with the aim of committing terrorist acts, as well as making explosives, theft, forgery and failure to denounce terrorism." More from the Guardian.
Georgia Bombing
Friday, October 17 - The Chattanooga Free Press is providing regular updates on the bombing of a Dalton, Georgia law office at about 9:15 (Eastern) Friday morning.
Canadian Gas Pipeline Attacked
Friday, October 17 - According to the Vancouver Sun, "There could be more pipeline bombings after the second attack in a week was discovered Thursday on a sour gas pipeline near Dawson Creek..."
Arrests for Financing Terrorism
Thursday, October 16 - "Spanish police have arrested eight people suspected of aiding terrorists implicated in the 2004 Madrid bombings. Officers raided addresses in Barcelona, Madrid and the southern Andalucia region in the early hours of this morning. Police say the eight people arrested are all of Moroccan origin and are suspected of recruiting and funding al-Qaeda," according to Euronews.
CEOs Not Involved in Cybersecurity
Wednesday, October 15 - "With infrastructure like electric grids, water, and telecommunications largely in the hands on private industry, it is up to the leaders in those sectors to work with government to keep the country safe--yet the participation of chief executives in such efforts has steadily waned since September 11, 2001, according to a working group of the National Infrastructure Advisory Council," according to CNET.
Guard Planes Not Equipped for Fire
Wednesday, October 15 - "Despite pressure from elected officials and the military, the Bush administration has yet to equip some California National Guard planes for firefighting — a delay that could have grave implications during the worst of the wildfire season," according to the Associated Press.
Hurricane Hits Virgin Islands
Wednesday, October 15 - "Omar strengthened into a fierce Category 3 hurricane late Wednesday as it pummeled St. Croix with heavy rains and winds, sinking boats in the harbor, knocking down trees and forcing workers to shut down a major oil refinery," according to the Associated Press. The refinery is the second largest in the Western hemisphere processing about 500,000 barrels per day.
Three Fires Raging in California
Tuesday, October 14 - "Powerful gusts stoked three major wildfires in Southern California early Tuesday that have charred nearly 12,000 acres, destroyed dozens of homes and forced thousands of people to evacuate neighborhoods in suburban Los Angeles and northern San Diego County," according to the Associated Press. Several stories and continuing coverage is available from the Los Angeles Times.
Brits Reject Long-Detentions Without Charge
Tuesday, October 14 - The British government was forced to drop controversial plans to allow terrorism suspects to be detained for up to six weeks without charge after the measure was defeated by Britain's upper house of parliament, the House of Lords, according to Deutche Weld.
Economic Implosion: Tempting Target?
Satellite image of the Ras Tanura facility.
In a recently released video (pdf) al Qaeda takes credit for US economic turmoil. The terrorist group's American-born spokesman claims, "The enemies of Islam are facing a crushing defeat, which is beginning to manifest itself in the expanding crisis their economy is experiencing... A crisis whose primary cause, in addition to the abortive and unsustainable crusades they are waging in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq, is their turning their backs on Allah's revealed laws, which forbid interest-bearing transactions, exploitation, greed and injustice in all its forms."
While the immediate claim is overstated, undermining the US economy has long been an explicit objective of al-Qaeda's strategy. Targeting the World Trade Center towers was both a symbolic and practical means of economic warfare.
Other economic targets include the 2002 attack on the Limburg a French supertanker, a credible 2004 plot to target US banks and financial institutions, and the increasing threat of economic disruption through cyberattacks.
But what many find the most chilling prospect is the targeting of Saudi oil infrastructure. Several failed attacks and an accumulation of captured terrorist documents demonstrate the intention to strike at what Osama bin Laden has called, "the provision line and the feeding to the artery of the life of the crusader nation."
In May 2004 an attack on the Saudi oil facility in Yanbu killed two Americans, two Britons, and an Australian.
In February 2006 the Saudi oil processing facility at Abqaiq was attacked with two bomb-laden vehicles and an unconfirmed number of individuals. The operation can be viewed as a tactical probe as much as an unsuccessful attack.
The biggest target is almost certainly the Saudi port of Ras Tanura, the world's largest offshore oil loading facility. Nearly 7/8's of all Saudi oil flows through this single port. It is no coincidence that the US Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain less than 50 miles southeast of Ras Tanura.
In late August an accidental fire at Ras Tanura reduced refined outputs. An attack - successful or not - would cause a spike in oil prices. Any sustained curtailment of oil shipments through Ras Tanura would almost certainly send shock waves through an energy hungry economic system.
In a new book, The Plan: How to Rescue Society the Day the Oil Stops - or the Day Before, Edwin Black describes our vulnerability, "...if one, two or all of three vital chokepoints are hit by terrorists flying hijacked 747s or Iranian military action - the Abqaiq processing plant, the Ras Tanura terminal in Saudi Arabia, or the two-mile per sea lane Strait of Hormuz - as much as 40% of all seaborne oil will be stopped, as much as 18% of all global supply will be interrupted, and from 12 to 20% of the US supply will be cut off. Estimates are the US shortfall could be even higher. Repeat attacks could prolong the crisis for many months, which is exactly what either al-Qaida or Iranian terrorists have promised."
If plans are in place for such an attack, the economic turmoil of the last few weeks makes it even more tempting to give the go-order now.
October 5 - 11, 2008
California Wildfires Reignite
Saturday, October 11 - A fire in the Napa area was largely contained, but north of Los Angeles another fire has claimed over 2000 acres and continues to grow.
Pennsylvania Chemical Release
Saturday, October 11 - "A corrosive liquid overflowed from a tank at a chemical plant in western Pennsylvania on Saturday, evaporating into a toxic cloud that snaked along the ground and forced about 2,500 people to flee," according to the Associated Press.
Unstable Low in Mid-Atlantic
Friday, October 10 - There is a modest chance of an Atlantic tropical storm emerging early next week. (UPDATE: Tropical Storm Nana took shape on Sunday.) Pacific Hurricane Norbert is expected to make landfall early Saturday on Baja California and bring heavy rains to Northwestern Mexico, West Texas, and New Mexico early next week.
Pakistani Tribal Leaders Killed
Friday, October 10 - "At least 15 people have been killed in a suicide bombing at a meeting of tribal elders in a restive region of Pakistan near the Afghan border," the BBC is reporting.
College Student Charged with Terrorism
Friday, October 10 - "A 19-year-old student at Middle Tennessee State University has been arrested on terrorism charges after threatening e-mails forced the cancellation of classes," according to the Associated Press.
Government Invasion of Privacy Claimed
Friday, October 10 - ABC News reports, "... hundreds of US citizens overseas have been eavesdropped on as they called friends and family back home, according to two former military intercept operators who worked at the giant National Security Agency (NSA) center in Fort Gordon, Georgia."
Terrorism Trial Begins
Thursday, October 9 - The Guardian reports, " 'Two NHS doctors plotted "indiscriminate and wholesale' murder in a series of car bomb attacks in London and Glasgow, a court heard today. Mohammed Asha, 28, and Bilal Abdulla, 29, are accused of trying to explode two car bombs in London and attempting a suicide bomb attack on Glasgow airport last June."
Police Headquarters Bombed
Thursday, October 9 - "A suicide bomber attacked police headquarters in Islamabad, air strikes targeting Islamist fighters killed 26 people, and children died in a roadside blast on Thursday as Pakistan's war with militants intensified," according to Reuters.
Candidates Debate Terrorism and Foreign Policy
Wednesday, October 8 - In their Tuesday evening debate the US presidential candidates gave attention to US Pakistan relations and more broadly to the place of the terrorist threat in US foreign policy.
Regional Collaboration in Flood Management
Wednesday, October 8 - Several Nevada counties have joined together to prevent and mitigate flooding in a shared watershed.
British Teens Accused of Bomb Plot
Tuesday, October 7 - The prosecution outlined its case against two British teenagers who are accused of planning and purchasing ingredients for a home-made bomb.
Hurricane Caused Oil Spill
Tuesday, October 7 - According to the Associated Press, "Days before and after the storm, which destroyed oil platforms, tossed storage tanks and punctured pipelines, companies and residents reported at least 448 releases of oil, gasoline and dozens of other substances into the air and water and onto the ground in Texas and Louisiana."
Old Spill was Worse than Reported
Tuesday, October 7 - The August rupture of an oil pipeline released more oil than previously estimated.
Saturday, October 11 - A fire in the Napa area was largely contained, but north of Los Angeles another fire has claimed over 2000 acres and continues to grow.
Pennsylvania Chemical Release
Saturday, October 11 - "A corrosive liquid overflowed from a tank at a chemical plant in western Pennsylvania on Saturday, evaporating into a toxic cloud that snaked along the ground and forced about 2,500 people to flee," according to the Associated Press.
Unstable Low in Mid-Atlantic
Friday, October 10 - There is a modest chance of an Atlantic tropical storm emerging early next week. (UPDATE: Tropical Storm Nana took shape on Sunday.) Pacific Hurricane Norbert is expected to make landfall early Saturday on Baja California and bring heavy rains to Northwestern Mexico, West Texas, and New Mexico early next week.
Pakistani Tribal Leaders Killed
Friday, October 10 - "At least 15 people have been killed in a suicide bombing at a meeting of tribal elders in a restive region of Pakistan near the Afghan border," the BBC is reporting.
College Student Charged with Terrorism
Friday, October 10 - "A 19-year-old student at Middle Tennessee State University has been arrested on terrorism charges after threatening e-mails forced the cancellation of classes," according to the Associated Press.
Government Invasion of Privacy Claimed
Friday, October 10 - ABC News reports, "... hundreds of US citizens overseas have been eavesdropped on as they called friends and family back home, according to two former military intercept operators who worked at the giant National Security Agency (NSA) center in Fort Gordon, Georgia."
Terrorism Trial Begins
Thursday, October 9 - The Guardian reports, " 'Two NHS doctors plotted "indiscriminate and wholesale' murder in a series of car bomb attacks in London and Glasgow, a court heard today. Mohammed Asha, 28, and Bilal Abdulla, 29, are accused of trying to explode two car bombs in London and attempting a suicide bomb attack on Glasgow airport last June."
Police Headquarters Bombed
Thursday, October 9 - "A suicide bomber attacked police headquarters in Islamabad, air strikes targeting Islamist fighters killed 26 people, and children died in a roadside blast on Thursday as Pakistan's war with militants intensified," according to Reuters.
Candidates Debate Terrorism and Foreign Policy
Wednesday, October 8 - In their Tuesday evening debate the US presidential candidates gave attention to US Pakistan relations and more broadly to the place of the terrorist threat in US foreign policy.
Regional Collaboration in Flood Management
Wednesday, October 8 - Several Nevada counties have joined together to prevent and mitigate flooding in a shared watershed.
British Teens Accused of Bomb Plot
Tuesday, October 7 - The prosecution outlined its case against two British teenagers who are accused of planning and purchasing ingredients for a home-made bomb.
Hurricane Caused Oil Spill
Tuesday, October 7 - According to the Associated Press, "Days before and after the storm, which destroyed oil platforms, tossed storage tanks and punctured pipelines, companies and residents reported at least 448 releases of oil, gasoline and dozens of other substances into the air and water and onto the ground in Texas and Louisiana."
Old Spill was Worse than Reported
Tuesday, October 7 - The August rupture of an oil pipeline released more oil than previously estimated.
Human Resilience Needed Too
Video capture of line up for gasoline from WSB Television in Atlanta.
Resilience is increasingly accepted as a fundamental objective of Homeland Security. It is most often applied to technological and infrastructure issues. Psychological and social resilience is also an important goal for Homeland Security planning and preparedness.
Last Wednesday the Reform Institute released a new report (pdf) focused on resilience.
Regardless of our best efforts, we cannot prevent the unpreventable. Natural disasters, industrial accidents, labor disputes and the vile acts of determined terrorist organizations represent ongoing threats that possess the potential to inflict great harm and severely damage our economy and global leadership. The simple fact is that not all these hazards can be averted. Certainly we can reduce the likelihood of terrorist attacks through the use of competent intelligence systems and reasonable security measures. Likewise we can decrease the incidence of industrial accidents and labor disputes through sound management practices. Nevertheless, devastating incidents will occur. What is within our power, however, is to better prepare our nation and its critical infrastructure to absorb the blows of catastrophes in order to prevent them from seriously disrupting critical activities and destabilizing the Nation. Adopting a national mindset of resilience must be become a priority.
The Reform Institute outlines how resilience can be advanced through preparedness, protection, response, and recovery. The report also offers this definition of resilience: "A truly resilient nation can take a punch and can bounce back to a state of near normalcy in a relatively brief period of time. It faces up to the fact that catastrophes are inevitable and that its national focus should be on putting in place or reinforcing systems and programs that will help to ensure that its critical infrastructure can endure the worst of what nature and mankind have to offer."
Many studies have pointed to the lack of resiliency - even the brittle nature - of US critical infrastructure. In 1997 the General Accountability Office listed the nation's critical infrastructure as a high risk issue (pdf). In a May, 2008 report the GAO found, "The nation faces a host of serious infrastructure challenges. Demand has outpaced the capacity of our nation's surface transportation and aviation systems, resulting in decreased performance and reliability. In addition, water utilities are facing pressure to upgrade the nation's aging and deteriorating water infrastructure to improve security, serve growing demands, and meet new regulatory requirements. Given these types of challenges and the federal government's fiscal outlook, it is clear that the federal government cannot continue with business as usual. Rather, a fundamental reexamination of government programs, policies, and activities is needed."
A recently updated study by the American Society of Civil Engineers found that that that status of American physical infrastructure is close to failing. One example: "27.1 percent of bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete."
The current gasoline shortage in the Southeastern United States resulted, in part, from a vulnerability caused by the geographic concentration of critical infrastructure. The shut down of 15 gulf coast refineries by Hurricane Ike reduced regional fuel supplies by approximately 30 percent.
Many suggest this reduction should not have produced significant public inconvenience, but television pictures of long lines at gas stations and empty fuel pumps certainly created the impression of a significant shortage. A story in yesterday's (Sunday) Atlanta Journal Constitution explains,
"...panic buying, fed by continuous news coverage, created the shortage. “We’ll have a shortage as long as people believe we have a shortage,” Tudor said. “As soon as people believe there is going to be gas tomorrow, they won’t feel the necessity of trying to fill up today.”
Just as oil prices spiked, Atlanta television stations began “trumpeting short supplies of gasoline and empty tanks at stations,” said former WAGA-TV reporter Doug Richards, who critiques local television news on the blog Live Apartment Fire (a wry reference to a commonly overplayed story). Most reporters, Richards said in an interview, pleaded for calm, urging motorists not to buy unneeded gas. But those pleas, Richards said, may have backfired.
“I’m reluctant to say TV helped contribute to the panic,” he said. “However, certainly a lot of those consumers of gasoline watched TV and put two and two together” and headed out to buy gas. The shortage was a natural television story, Richards said, combining human drama – angry, anxious motorists – with strong visuals of cars lined up for gas.
Public reaction to the shortage, as framed by the media, made the situation - at the very least - much worse than it needed to be. Rather than being resilient - rather than bouncing back - the public reaction became a heavy drag on the system.
Visual evidence - on television and from seeing long-lines - overcame any words of reassurance, no matter how credible. The immediate visual evidence was especially powerful because very little had been done to prepare either the physical supply chain or the public psyche for a predictable fuel shortage.
Writing in the Australian Journal of Emergency Management (pdf) Brigit Macquire and Patrick Hagan argue that, "research into human reactions to disaster has overwhelmingly recognised that resilience in response to disaster is much more common than suggested by the media, and “mass trauma may not necessarily be a given” (Almedom, 2005, p. 254). In the immediate aftermath of a disaster, communities tend to come together, with more prosocial behaviour being demonstrated by most individuals (Auf der Heide, 2004; Barsky, Trainor, & Torres, 2006). To be effective, emergency management plans need to build on the capacities arising from naturally emergent social resilience."
But fundamental to effective resilience is accurate information communicated effectively and credibly. Too often in trying to avoid - unlikely - social panic leaders can inadvertently prompt the public to counter-productive behavior by failing to communicate in a way that reinforces resilience. Many elected leaders are especially reluctant to discuss catastrophic possibilities and as a result fail to cultivate the psychological readiness that is essential to social resilience.
Writing in Foreign Affairs (and other publications), Stephen Flynn has suggested four keys to reinforcing resilience:
First, there is robustness, the ability to keep operating or to stay standing in the face of disaster. In some cases, it translates into designing structures or systems (such as buildings and bridges) strong enough to take a foreseeable punch. In others (such as developing transportation, energy, and communications networks), robustness requires devising substitutable or redundant systems that can be brought to bear should something important break or stop working. Robustness also entails investing in and maintaining elements of critical infrastructure, such as dams and levees, so that they can withstand low-probability but high-consequence events.
Second is resourcefulness, which involves skillfully managing a disaster once it unfolds. It includes identifying options, prioritizing what should be done both to control damage and to begin mitigating it, and communicating decisions to the people who will implement them. Resourcefulness depends primarily on people, not technology...
The third element of resilience is rapid recovery, which is the capacity to get things back to normal as quickly as possible after a disaster. Carefully drafted contingency plans, competent emergency operations, and the means to get the right people and resources to the right places are crucial...
Finally, resilience means having the means to absorb the new lessons that can be drawn from a catastrophe.
The Southeastern fuel shortage has been less than a catastrophe, but it offers important lessons-to-be-learned. We depend on robust and resourceful citizens, as well as robust and resourceful systems. Fundamental to real resilience is public understanding. Resilience is an outcome of the public being meaningfully aware of risks and being prepared psychologically and practically to engage the risks.
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